pilldoc Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 So here is the updated standings for the race to McDavid: Here is the link to the discussion of prospects and their Bios. -----> http://www.hockeyforums.net/index.php/topic/64625-nhl-2015-entry-draft-top-prospects/ 23 Philadelphia M 74 29 29 16 74 24 New Jersey M 72 31 30 11 73 25 Columbus M 72 33 35 4 70 26 Carolina M 71 26 35 10 6227 Toronto A 73 27 40 6 6028 Edmonton P 72 20 39 13 53 29 Arizona P 72 21 43 8 5030 Buffalo A 72 20 45 7 47 Flyer have 8 games remaining:(H) - Chicago, SJ, Pitt, NYI, Car, Ott(A) - Pitt, Car The race for the worst record is between Edm, Ari, Buf. The Flyers wont catch those 3. Unless Toronto and Carolina go on a winning streak, I think they might just be a tad out of reach. I think realistically the Flyer can jump both NJ and Columbus. That would put them daft #6. So what could be waiting for them there. Assume McDavid, Eichel, Hanifin are gone. That leaves:(C ) Dyan Strome(C ) Mitch Marner(LW) Lawson Crouse(D) Ivan Provorov(C ) Mathew Barzal(C/LW) Pavel Zacha(C/RW) Mikko Rantanen(C/RW) Nick Merkley(C ) Travis Konecny http://www.mynhldraft.com/NHL-Mock-Draft/ At #8 I think Strome / Marner / Crouse are gone so they have the Flyers picking © Mathew Barzal Mathew BarzalHt/Wt: 5'11"/174 lbsPosition: CTeam: Seattle (WHL) Mathew Brazal's Player ProfileMathew Barzal is that Sam Reinhart (Buffalo – 2014 – 2nd overall) type thinker that outthinks his opposition. Mathew also possesses elite passing and stickhandling abilities. Mathew had a good Ivan Hlinka tournament where he helped bring the gold back to Canada with seven points and a plus five rating in five games. He also is looking good out of the gate in the WHL with eleven points in ten games.Profile from: Eldon MacDonald of The Hockey Writers - updated Oct. 19thDifference maker may sum up Mathew. He not only wants to be one, he is one. Always in the 'guts' of the action and he has the puck so much during the course of a game. Smart and really understands what is unfolding and is both quick to take advantage yet patient to let it unfold. Exudes confidence and with a very good skill set, that confidence leads to productivity, both for him and the team. A smart, creative player with a wide, strong, fluid stride…plays a 200-foot game…makes good decisions with the puck…has decent strength, and looks bigger than listed…shows flashes of dominating offensive skills, but need to do so with more consistency…not overly physical, but will engage in contact for the puck…shows his creativity, vision and playmaking ability on the power play…finds seams and open ice with his impressive senses...really doing well in his rookie WHL season…has high-end offensive NHL upside. (August 2014) you thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hf101 Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 Here is the trend of the last 10 games for the above. The Flyers could drop to 6th at best. Flyers 2-4-4Devils 6-3-1Blue Jackets 7-3-0Hurricanes 2-5-3Maple Leafs 2-7-1Oilers 2-5-3Coyotes 2-5-3Sabres 1-7-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WordsOfWisdom Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 Arizona is really pushing hard. I can't believe the Oilers let them through. Buffalo may have to finish the season 0-10-0 to finish 30th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flyercanuck Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 @pilldoc Barzals coming off a knee injury but is coming on like gangbusters. he'd dropped in rankings but is now a riser. I think you have merkley a bit high. Zacha is dropping from what I've seen. Timo meier is another consideration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pilldoc Posted March 22, 2015 Author Share Posted March 22, 2015 Here is the trend of the last 10 games for the above. The Flyers could drop to 6th at best. Flyers 2-4-4Devils 6-3-1Blue Jackets 7-3-0Hurricanes 2-5-3Maple Leafs 2-7-1Oilers 2-5-3Coyotes 2-5-3Sabres 1-7-2 Absolutely agree with this. If the Flyers would have lost in regulation last night then they would have been sitting at #7. I think drafting #6 is a very distinct reality (unless of course we all put our collective lucky charms in and the Flyers win the lottery) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pilldoc Posted March 22, 2015 Author Share Posted March 22, 2015 @pilldoc Barzals coming off a knee injury but is coming on like gangbusters. he'd dropped in rankings but is now a riser. I think you have merkley a bit high. Zacha is dropping from what I've seen. Timo meier is another consideration. @FC... the top players in my list I was sort of ranking, the bottom of my list I was just picking out players who where in top 10 a few weeks ago. I had know idea Barzal had a knee injury. Honestly I was so wrapped up in the inagarual SIM draft league I am in with hf101, I haven't really paid much attention to this upcoming draft and who was rising vs who was dropping. Thanks for the heads up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flyercanuck Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 @pilldoc Barzal looks to have rebounded 100% from it. He's been on fire. If Arizona ends up 3rd I won't be surprised to see Marner go there. Then Hanifan, then Strome. Though Toronto may well take Strome 4th since they're desperate for a #1 center. After that it's anyones guess. I have no clue who's going in what order after top 5, but there certainly looks to be some really good players in the next 5-7 slots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pilldoc Posted March 22, 2015 Author Share Posted March 22, 2015 @flyercanuck totally agree FC...that is why I really want the Flyers at #5 or #6 so they have some options. It really will be a crap shoot after that. Of the Flyers can just make it easy on themselves and win the lottery! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J0e Th0rnton Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 Sharks are entering the sweepstakes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hf101 Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 2015 Draft Lottery Odds (Fewest Pts. to Most) 1 20.00%2 13.50%3 11.50%4 9.50%5 8.50%6 7.50%7 6.50%8 6.00%9 5.00%10 3.50%11 3.00%12 2.50%13 2.00%14 1.00% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pilldoc Posted March 22, 2015 Author Share Posted March 22, 2015 http://nhllotterysimulator.com/#/ TRADECENTRE LOTTERY SIMULATOR You have run the simulator 500 times. Buffalo SabresWins: 92Win %: 18.4% Toronto Maple LeafsWins: 61Win %: 12.2% Edmonton OilersWins: 61Win %: 12.2% Arizona CoyotesWins: 55Win %: 11% Philadelphia FlyersWins: 41Win %: 8.2% Carolina HurricanesWins: 40Win %: 8% New Jersey DevilsWins: 38Win %: 7.6% Columbus Blue JacketsWins: 31Win %: 6.2% Dallas StarsWins: 25Win %: 5% Colorado AvalancheWins: 17Win %: 3.4% San Jose SharksWins: 14Win %: 2.8% Los Angeles KingsWins: 13Win %: 2.6% Florida PanthersWins: 9Win %: 1.8% Boston BruinsWins: 3Win %: 0.6% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WordsOfWisdom Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 Wait, what? How did the Leafs get better odds than Arizona or Edmonton? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pilldoc Posted March 22, 2015 Author Share Posted March 22, 2015 Wait, what? How did the Leafs get better odds than Arizona or Edmonton? they didn't....i just ran the simulator 500 times and they happen to win 12.2% of the time.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jammer2 Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 WOW...kinda crazy that the worst team in the standings only has a 1-5 chance of getting McDavid. I see a wildcard....after years and years of waiting....it is Philly's turn...we are winning this thing!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WordsOfWisdom Posted March 22, 2015 Share Posted March 22, 2015 Maybe one of those billionaire Russian oil tycoons will sign McDavid to play in the KHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jammer2 Posted March 23, 2015 Share Posted March 23, 2015 Maybe one of those billionaire Russian oil tycoons will sign McDavid to play in the KHL. Possible...but the a few things block this kind of adventure. 1) McDavid is Canadian....grew up treasuring the Stanley Cup...*not* the false idol they play for in the KHL...that would literally have no value to him...2) Cultural differences...just way to big a jump, all his support group, all his friends....gone. 3) Low standards in the KHL...does each rink have a *working difubilator*, a plane that flies properly.....will he be subject to death threats....mafia blackmail....all this stuff could happen there...never happen here....no way this goes down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J0e Th0rnton Posted March 23, 2015 Share Posted March 23, 2015 I only ran the simulator 25 times, but the Sharks won twice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J0e Th0rnton Posted March 23, 2015 Share Posted March 23, 2015 A perfect end to the season would be to eliminate the Kings from making the final playoff spot out of spite and then winning the draft lottery to begin the Pavelski/McDavid era. Only thing that would salvage this wasted season by Doug Wilson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJgoal Posted March 23, 2015 Share Posted March 23, 2015 I only ran the simulator once. Flyers won, so I stopped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WordsOfWisdom Posted March 23, 2015 Share Posted March 23, 2015 Possible...but the a few things block this kind of adventure. 1) McDavid is Canadian....grew up treasuring the Stanley Cup...*not* the false idol they play for in the KHL...that would literally have no value to him...2) Cultural differences...just way to big a jump, all his support group, all his friends....gone. 3) Low standards in the KHL...does each rink have a *working difubilator*, a plane that flies properly.....will he be subject to death threats....mafia blackmail....all this stuff could happen there...never happen here....no way this goes down. All excellent points, but imagine if one of the KHL owners offered him 25 million dollars per season. The KHL has no rules. They can pay the bottom players little or nothing and give it all to McDavid. They could even operate at a loss just to soil the NHL product by taking a future star away. McDavid could be given so much money that he could carry his own medical staff around with him and fly on his own private jet instead of a team jet. Wayne Gretzky did it. He said so long to the NHL draft and went to the highest bidder... to play for the AVCO Cup in a rival hockey league that died shortly thereafter. Money means more than everything else to these players. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J0e Th0rnton Posted March 23, 2015 Share Posted March 23, 2015 All excellent points, but imagine if one of the KHL owners offered him 25 million dollars per season. The KHL has no rules. They can pay the bottom players little or nothing and give it all to McDavid. They could even operate at a loss just to soil the NHL product by taking a future star away. McDavid could be given so much money that he could carry his own medical staff around with him and fly on his own private jet instead of a team jet. Wayne Gretzky did it. He said so long to the NHL draft and went to the highest bidder... to play for the AVCO Cup in a rival hockey league that died shortly thereafter. Money means more than everything else to these players.Depends on the player. The WHA was still in North America and had some legitimacy because of superstar players like Bobby hull who jumped ship, along with many others. A big factor some Russian players consider is playing at home instead of overseas. Were I an 18 year old again, I would be happy as a pig in poop just making 100k a year to play Hockey, let alone Crosby money. Going to the KHL in a time players are complaining of not getting paycheques and the current political climate would be major factors players considering the WHA would not have to worry about as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Claude Monet Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 Winter hawks are playing Seattle in the first round. I'll keep an eye on the Seattle player mentioned and report back. Anyone else on Seattle that I should key on ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Podein25 Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 Winter hawks are playing Seattle in the first round. I'll keep an eye on the Seattle player mentioned and report back. Anyone else on Seattle that I should key on ?Ethan Bear, #25 D-man is draft eligible. Not likely to go in the early rounds (ranked 133rd), but I'm curious about him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flyercanuck Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 Erie sits out McDavid for their last game. Strome goes out and scores 4 g 2 a to win the scoring title! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jammer2 Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 @flyercanuck Saw that...what a WICKED onslaught of pts to win the title. Of course, we all know that McGod would have won the thing had it not been for the lost games, but nonetheless, the record books will show Strome and no one can take that away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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