The Vinny anti-Chaos Theory

[jammer2]

Let's get this out of the way: 1st, forget about arguing a trade of any kind. We are dealing with the facts as they stand now. If he gets traded tomorrow then fine. No chaos. 2nd, forget about plopping him in the press box all year to serve pop corn. I'll never say never but let's stick to the hard fact that as it stands now; he is on the team making a ridiculous amount of money. 3rd, let's move on. It happened. Hextall didn't buy him out, Homer signed him. Yada Yada Yada...

 

4th....Hakstol will not put up with VLC's lack of heart and effort and he will force Hexy's hand by refusing to play him.

[radoran]

What did he say about playing the wing specifically other than that he wanted to do what the team needed that I don't remember?

"It's been a tough year, especially the first time I got scratched," he said. "But overall last year was a tough year, too, playing out of position."

"I was very excited at the beginning of the year, starting out in the middle," he said. "I thought I was producing, and then you get hurt, and I was put back where I was the year before. It is what it is, but I still feel I can come back from this

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/flyers/20150329_Inside_the_Flyers__Lecavalier_a_bad_fit_with_Berube.html#S8wp0S7MJEzm727Z.99

Not a question of whether he is willing to try to do anything to try to help the team - I believe he is giving his best for the team. Whether he thinks that's where he can be most effective and whether or not he can be more effective than other assets also on the team is another question entirely.

"I came with a positive attitude and I thought the first four games everything was going well and I was feeling good and playing the position I enjoy playing. Again, like last year, a shot in the foot takes me out for (seven games). After that, it's been the way it is now."

http://www.thedailyjournal.com/story/sports/2015/03/27/flyers-lecavalier-uncomfortable-role/70572402/

Early on: "They asked me in the meeting if I could play wing," said Lecavalier, a left-hand shot. "I said certainly. I'm a lot more comfortable at right wing, my off wing, than on my left side. So right wing for me would be very, very comfortable. ... If you've watched me in games, if I have a choice of going to the left side with the puck or the right side, I would choose 99 percent of the time the right side. So it's not something I really worry about, especially when you're told you might play with Claude Giroux. I'm really open to that and I'd be really excited about that."

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nhl/2013/07/06/vincent-lecavalier-philadelphia-flyers-tampa-bay-lightning-buyout/2495629/

Which shows his willingness to try new things, but acknowledges that it would need to be a talented center he's playing with.

In order to be effective he has to play in a scoring role. Berube was of the opinion that as a coach (using this term loosely) he had better options than VLC, including an injured Umburglar and Read.

I think Hakstol will again try second line center and if the pride we all acknowledge he has in his game allows the Flyers could have an effective 20/50 center with upside - which is what they paid for in the first place.

But he's not going to get a ton of points playing 8 minutes a game playing wing with the law firm of bellemare vandevelde raffl and white.

[idahophilly]

Well, one thing is for sure, it is indeed a wee bit of chaos. I seem to have forced the issue on really considering what to do with the idea of where to play him and the snow ball effect on the rest of the team. I think it's been easy to kinda dismiss it and keep hoping for a buyout or trade in fantasy land but in reality he's gonna be on the team as it stands now so I think Knut is right. We don't know after Berube's bumbling about for 2 seasons what these guys are and we are indeed clouded in our objective judgment, no matter how proud anyone of us thinks we are in our own objectiveness. 

 

and Jammer, this isn't old school Homer stuff here, if Hexy tells Haks to play him he WILL play him. We won't be privy to the "discussion" but if Hextall has a plan then I can assure you Hakstoll will have to follow it. I'm not saying Hextall is gonna be a closet coach but I think there is something more of a plan than we have figured out...

[idahophilly]

I think Hakstol will again try second line center and if the pride we all acknowledge he has in his game allows the Flyers could have an effective 20/50 center with upside - which is what they paid for in the first place.

But he's not going to get a ton of points playing 8 minutes a game playing wing with the law firm of bellemare vandevelde raffl and white.

Well, it's still better than Crane, Pool & Schmidt...

 

I'd be happy to try him as 2nd line center with Simmer. I mean if it goes bad I know we are blowing the President's Trophy and all.  I don't have to much of a problem with Coots still playing 3rd line center so long as it's with ANYONE other than RJ or Read. We need 4 viable pieces to slot one with G and Voracek, one with VLC and Simmonds and two with Coots... We have Gagner, Schenn, Raffle and one of either a healthy RJ or Read. And there is still Laughton and Cousins to look at. What I'm saying is if one of the two (Read or Umberger) crap out totally then there are options. There is even options if they both crap out. But VLC playing the minutes he would and with real players flanking him he could rejuvenate himself enough that we get a pick at the trade deadline for him... It's gonna be a crazy year anyway so why not try?

[canoli]

... bc I have a case of the Mondays...

 

LOL - thanks for reminding me - and the laugh!

 

[J0e Th0rnton]

LOL - thanks for reminding me - and the laugh!

 

[King Knut]

4th....Hakstol will not put up with VLC's lack of heart and effort and he will force Hexy's hand by refusing to play him.

 

I just think it's not wise to interpret it as "lack of heart" when it could probably more likely be having had absolutely no idea how to do his job or even what his job was.

 

I don't think there's any overestimating how confused Berube's players were about their roles or how to execute them and how any of it amounted to a successful strategy.

 

It think it's very clear that Vinny wants to do well and is pissed off that he hasn't been.  If Hakstol comes in with a plan and works with the team on how to execute it (which he should be used to) then I truly think there's great potential for things to go better for a whole LOT of players, Vinny included.

 

I just have a gut feeling that "Vinny wouldn't buy into the system" is way too simplistic an argument and this is partially supported by the observable fact that a great many players on this team had the same trouble throughout a lot of the season including guys like Simmonds, Schenn, Coots, etc. 

 

I also point to Jake and G who both had great years, but when you watch them play it was glaringly apparent there was no structure to their games and they were excelling on physical ability, skill and guts.  Essentially they did well the way great players do well at pond hockey... because they're just flat out better than almost everyone else. 

 

But you can't have a team of Jake and G's.  You need a system that players can actually execute.  My sincere hope is that Hakstol will work to build such a thing and has the patience to work with guys to learn it and buy into it (he's used to losing half his starters every year after all).  

 

If Vinny is simply too old to execute or just can't wrap his brain around what part of the ice to go to when, then yeah.  He'll get benched again.  But I don't think it's a willful thing for him.  I don't think he's being stubborn and I personally will be very surprised if he isn't at least marginally better and more functional for the team in some capacity by the middle of the season.  

 

If Vinny had been the only flyer to look bad last year, I'd be all over hating on him.  But MOST of the team looked god awful for most of last year.   I'm not going to jump on the hating Vinny bandwagon just because he makes more money than most of the other guys who sucked all year.  He makes close to the same money as Umberger and for my money Umberger looked twice as bad all year and was almost never benched.

[murraycraven]

If Vinny is simply too old to execute or just can't wrap his brain around what part of the ice to go to when, then yeah. 

 

that is the answer - Vinny is toast.

[King Knut]

that is the answer - Vinny is toast.

 

I just don't buy that.  It's too simple of an explanation and isn't backed up by any data.

 

Matt Read had only ten more assists than Vinny, yet played in 23 more games and had 5 more minutes per game. 

RJ Umberger had 5 fewer points than Vinny and yet played in 10 more games with a minute plus more per game.

 

What that works out to is:

 

RJ scoring a point every 61.4 minutes of ice time,

Read scoring a point every 46.66 minutes of ice time

Vinny scoring a point every 35.6 minutes of ice time.

 

That's close to Raffl (a point every 34 mins) who played a TON of first line minutes.

 

Now I'll grant you that RJ and Read played on the shut down line with Coots a lot, but do we really elevate that above the 4th line that much?

 

Want more food for thought?  Claude Giroux... CLAUDE GIROUX scored 11 even strength goals in 81 games last year.  Vinny scored 7 in 57 games. 

 

That's an even strength goal every 7.36 games for Claude, the greatest player in the world vs. one for every 8.14 games for Vinny, the worst player in the world according to most of us here.

 

But wait... Vinny's a defensive liability?   The only forwards with a +/- above the mendoza line were Jake with 81 points and Coots (who played shorthanded so much), and somehow Raffl.   The entire damn team was a defensive liability. Giroux played a ton of SH minutes and Scored 73 points and STILL ended up in the minus column.

 

I'm not saying that Vinny will be his old self and produce 40 goals or that he'll even be good, and earning his contract will absolutely be a near impossibility.

 

I'm just saying that all this hatred of Vinny and this assumption that he's a malcontent who just refuses to or is incapable of competing any more is at the very least, not a criticism exclusive to Vinny. 

 

This was a HORRIBLY coached team for the past two years.  That has to be the caveat for every discussion about how it's players have performed. 

 

Berube made everyone on this team worse than he should have or could have been and Vinny is just emblematic of that and personally I see absolutely no reason to assume he's going to be as bad or worse again this year while assuming that the entire rest of the team around him (even the ones who played more poorly than Vinny, but were rewarded with more minutes in which to play more poorly) will be better.

 

Just saying, let's not all assume doom and gloom about him as an individual.  There's enough evidence to suggest to me that it still needs to be proven that Vinny can't play the game anymore.  Or at least that he's not necessarily worse at it than a few of other guys on this team that we're not complaining about.

[radoran]

I'm just saying that all this hatred of Vinny and this assumption that he's a malcontent who just refuses to or is incapable of competing any more is at the very least, not a criticism exclusive to Vinny.

 

I don't for a moment believe he is a malcontent mailing it in. I think he wants to be effective, to contribute, to be a part of a winner, to show Tampa they were wrong to pay him for another 12 years not to play for them. However (comma)

 

 

 

It's too simple of an explanation and isn't backed up by any data.

 

The "data" is overwhelming that his game has been on a steady decline for years. I've documented it many times on here, but for the record again:

 

Since his 108 point 06-07, his goals and points have been on a pretty steady decline.

 

Goals 52-40-29-24-25-22-10 (39 games)

Points: 108-92-67-70-54-49-32 (39 games)

 

That has nothing to do with Berube (or the Flyers for that matter) because all of those numbers are from Tampa. All of this was well known to the Bolts when they bought out their captain and face of the franchise.

 

He hasn't played a full season since 2009-2010. Injuries have bedeviled him even in the lockout-shortened season.

 

Games: 82-81-77-82-65-64-39 (of 48)

Shots: 339-318-291-295-210-182-86 (39 games)

 

Again - all on Tampa. Those are all trends in the data that would have anyone concerned about whether they will reverse themselves with a 35-year-old player.

 

Especially since his outings with the Flyers have continued the trend (30g27p, 8g,20p). Some (perhaps more than some) of that has to do with Berube's ineptitude, but even with the healthy scratches last season he still missed time due to injury as well (which is what helped him lose his starting position on the second line) and he still hasn't been better than 50% at the dot as a Flyer no matter where he's played (and aside from the lockout season hasn't been since 2010-2011 - 50.9%). Has he had bad coaches? Absolutely. Does that absolve his actual play on the ice for the past five years?

 

I think my posts on this thread bear out that I absolutely concur that they need to "try something" with him to get him going and benefit the team.

 

But whether he can reverse the steady downhill trend line of his career is another matter entirely. Again, it is possible that he finds his game again and can be a productive player. I think he'd have been a much better fit with other franchises the past two years regardless of Lavvy getting canned. The Flyers didn't need a second line center when they signed him and they still don't now (if one believes that Couturier or BSchenn could be taking those minutes, for example - or, indeed, someone else with that $4.5M cap hit). And, rationally speaking, that's about the only place that he really "fits" if he's going to have any success at all.

 

They have no choice but to do it, but it's not necessarily that the franchise (and the players it is developing) wouldn't be better off without him.

 

Again - I don't put any of this "on Vinny" - I put it squarely on Homer.

 

Or at least that he's not necessarily worse at it than a few of other guys on this team that we're not complaining about.

 

I've seen Umburglar and Read roasted on this board. Repeatedly.

[OccamsRazor]

 

 

So why is Mcdud hanging with Sid?? Maybe we can trade him to Pittsburgh and Vinny can accompany him......

[radoran]

So why is Mcdud hanging with Sid?? Maybe we can trade him to Pittsburgh and Vinny can accompany him......

 

I'll drive MacDud* and Vinny to Pittsburgh and bring back Malkin

 

 

 

* seriously, his nickname on this board is MacDud - and we still call VLC "VLC"

[King Knut]

That has nothing to do with Berube (or the Flyers for that matter) because all of those numbers are from Tampa. All of this was well known to the Bolts when they bought out their captain and face of the franchise.

 

Again, I'm in no way saying his game isn't in decline since his hey day, or that he can contribute in any way commiserate with his salary, especially not for the length of the deal.  Nor am I saying he can in any way validate his deal at this point.  Few players could.

 

All I'm saying is that as problem areas go, the evidence is strongly in favor of the entire team being misused including Vinny and that there should still be reason to believe he can potentially contribute and prove himself valuable and therefore trade-able.  In my estimation, there's more hope for him than either Umberger or Read at this point.

 

Again - I don't put any of this "on Vinny" - I put it squarely on Homer.

 

I have no idea what enrages me more, what Homer did to this team with a slew of idiotic ridiculous contracts for players and coaches that at best can't contribute and at worse completely imploded, nearly taking the entire team with them... or the fact that it didn't get him ridden out of town on a rail, much less earned him a promotion.  I hate that he still has any association with this team.  I'm using the word HATE here.

 

I've seen Umburglar and Read roasted on this board. Repeatedly.

 

Not nearly so much as Vinny or MacDonald and it's squarely because of their contracts.  They're hated because they make more money and don't contribute at a level to match... few could. 

 

I honestly think it gets better and MacDonald (and hopefully Luke too) in particular could see a vastly improved season under this coach which could (I sincerely hope) merit a trade for either. 

 

Vinny has to score a LOT to get someone to want to trade for him.  MacDonald just has to play as well as he did in his first months here when he actually looked pretty good.  Imagine that another player that looked good before playing a full season under Berube. 

 

Berube is the trend here and I honestly don't think we know how far up the creek most of these guys are until we see what they do for a year under Hakstol. 

[King Knut]

I'll drive MacDud* and Vinny to Pittsburgh and bring back Malkin

 

 

 

* seriously, his nickname on this board is MacDud - and we still call VLC "VLC"

 

They can keep Malkin. 

 

MacDonald will be an effective player for a team with a coach for another couple of years if traded soon.  Maybe even this team under Hakstol.  Who knows. 

 

The problem is that even if he plays as well as he's able (and he's shown that he can in fact play, most people here like to ignore that) he'll never justify the contract that homer threw at him.  DUMB DUMB DUMB DUMB DUMB

[OccamsRazor]

* seriously, his nickname on this board is MacDud - and we still call VLC "VLC"

 

se·man·tics 

[OccamsRazor]

bring back Malkin

 

[flyercanuck]

 

 

So why is Mcdud hanging with Sid?? Maybe we can trade him to Pittsburgh and Vinny can accompany him......

 

 

Nova Scotia boys back home for the summer?

[DaGreatGazoo]

In my estimation, there's more hope for him than either Umberger or Read at this point.

 

Strongly disagree with lumping Read into a Umberger/VLC comparison. 

[radoran]

In my estimation, there's more hope for him than either Umberger or Read at this point.

 

I'll throw my lot in with the 29-year-old who has outscored VLC in the past four years over the 35-year-old, but I fully see where one's mileage on that may vary.

 

I've been anti-Umburglar since the trade happened. Guy is just flat out done. Columbus knew it and fleeced Hextall.

 

MacDonald will be an effective player for a team with a coach for another couple of years if traded soon. Maybe even this team under Hakstol. Who knows.

The problem is that even if he plays as well as he's able (and he's shown that he can in fact play, most people here like to ignore that)

 

When? And where? As what?

 

 

 

The 24 points "QBing the PP" on the Island where, playing with Tavares, Okposo and the Ghost of Thomas Vanek he managed 11 of his 24 points in 63 games (-19)? The magical run of four points in 19 games (-3) that convinced Homer he was a keeper? When he was a healthy scratch on last year's defense on the Flyers*?

 

MacDonald is a third pairing guy on a good day (and I've said that from day one of this "experiment"). If we want to say he can be an effective guy in that role, I will agree.

 

But the cap is part and parcel of this league these days and you can't have a third pairing defenseman making $5M. And there's no way to divorce the two.

 

Can we load some oxy in his trunk on the way back from Nova Scotia?

 

 

 

* fully acknowledge the inexplicable decisions of Berube

[King Knut]

Strongly disagree with lumping Read into a Umberger/VLC comparison.

 

based on?

[OccamsRazor]

Nova Scotia boys back home for the summer?

 

 

Well maybe he is asking Sid to get on the phone and call his GM Rutherford and ask him if he could swing a trade with Philly so him and Sid could be best buds!!

[King Knut]

Can we load some oxy in his trunk on the way back from Nova Scotia?

 

Well let's not joke about that, but one can always hope, huh?

 

He's not a PP QB.

He's a shot blocker and he's actually a fairly strong position based D man and a fairly strong transition guy who used to be pretty good at starting the rush out of his own zone and making a good "first pass".

 

This is an incredibly valuable skill in today's game, but in Berube's "system", the options for where to send that first pass became more and more confused, confounded and more often than not started deeper in his own zone than the D man trying to pass to him.

 

Berube had MacDonald and really every D man playing ridiculously out of position and more often than not, facing the wrong direction, thus rendering them useless to effectively shut down an attacking offense as well as ineffective at starting the transition game. 

[flyercanuck]

Well maybe he is asking Sid to get on the phone and call his GM Rutherford and ask him if he could swing a trade with Philly so him and Sid could be best buds!!

 

 

That'd be swell! 

[DaGreatGazoo]

based on?

Based on the fact he's 4-5 years younger, signed to a much better contract, has out scored each of them the last 2 seasons. And by the team's admission was playing on one leg for 1/2 of last year.

This is a make or break season for him. But to compare him to VLC or RJ is wrong. Most pundits agree the later 2 are probably done--or nearing the end quickly.

Pretty sure you aren't going to find many(any) people saying that about Matt Read.

[King Knut]

From your keyboard to god's ears.

I still can't fathom why the hell both He and Umby were out there last year if they were both so dn injured.

It wasn't helping the team. LTIRing Umberger at least would have helped ease the cap situation enough to bring in someone who could play even if he wasn't great.

There's so much that's so confounding surrounding RJ and last season and having him on the line with Read who was also hurt and then complaining that Coots wasn't scoring enough...

I can't wait till they're All gone. I hope you're right about Read. I liked him as a player and though he'd be good on that line, but he was just out of it most of the time last year.