Hextall's Legacy as GM

[AJgoal]

4 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

 

Fixed!

 

But well said!

 

Yarp. Thanks.

[OccamsRazor]

5 minutes ago, icehole said:

Why would you be upset of losing a pick the gives you a 10% chance (at best) to get a good player?

 

Because without a the 2nd pick you have ZERO chance of of it working. I'll take 10%. Besides you'd also have to look at those clubs who used that #27 pick and what are THEIR success rate with that pick is. Some teams just draft better than others.

 

This isn't in a vacuum.

[OccamsRazor]

4 minutes ago, flyercanuck said:

Who do you think will win the lottery first, you or I?

 

Enron?

[ruxpin]

2 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

Because without a the 2nd pick you have ZERO chance of of it working. I'll take 10%. Besides you'd also have to look at those clubs who used that #27 pick and what are THEIR success rate with that pick is. Some teams just draft better than others.

 

This isn't in a vacuum.

Don't forget to also explain to Paul, here, the importance of bicycle safety while riding bridges over the Delaware. 

[icehole]

1 hour ago, flyercanuck said:

 

I'll try and explain this one more time.

 

If there's a lottery for a million dollars every year, and we both have, say, 10 tickets each, every year. But you trade all your tickets to me each year for my old rubber boots, the stuff I clean out of my eavestrough and my broken lawn furniture. Who do you think will win the lottery first, you or I?

I like it!  It's a good analogy.  If I need rubber boots and I don't want to spend money on a new pair, and I'm pretty handy with tools, and I could use some lawn furniture, I'd probably win that trade.  I'd have to ask you what the chances of winning that lottery are though.

No lie, when I do play the lottery, I only buy one ticket.  The odds of winning are so slim, I belive the only way you will win is if you were meant to win.  So if you want to give me something I see value in for a few Powerball tickets that could win you $20mill+, I'll make that trade every day.

If you won that lottery for $20mill and I'm stuck with your lawnmower, I'd be kicking myself, but I can't second guess my choice because the odds were in my favor when I made the decision.

[icehole]

1 hour ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

Because without a the 2nd pick you have ZERO chance of of it working. I'll take 10%. Besides you'd also have to look at those clubs who used that #27 pick and what are THEIR success rate with that pick is. Some teams just draft better than others.

 

This isn't in a vacuum.

In the eminger example, that was not the case.  Although the flyers lost their #27 pick, that doesn't mean they had 0% chance of it working.  They got a player in return that was a #12 pick with desired intangibles. It just didn't work out and Carlson is working out, so it looks bad now.

[OccamsRazor]

21 minutes ago, icehole said:

In the eminger example, that was not the case.  Although the flyers lost their #27 pick, that doesn't mean they had 0% chance of it working.  They got a player in return that was a #12 pick with desired intangibles. It just didn't work out and Carlson is working out, so it looks bad now.

 

 

That is a long word for BUST!

[icehole]

Just now, OccamsRazor said:

 

 

That is a long word for BUST!

It was a bust.  They happen to all GMs.  Despite that long list of bad moves by Homer, he kept it exciting (for me at least) and won a lot of games.

[Lindbergh31]

On ‎9‎/‎23‎/‎2016 at 9:10 AM, icehole said:

What would Hextall have to do to make you feel like he was a successfull GM.  If he doesn't win a cup, is he a failure?

Some of us want to crown him as a genius, but his moves really haven't amounted to much yet.  He missed the playoffs with 84 points and he lost in the first round with a 96 (that surprised me) point season.

Let's look 8 years into the future.  Hextall left to be president of hockey operations for calgary after the 19/20 season.  The flyers are in a bit of a rebuilding mode, maybe squeaking into the playoffs or maybe missing.  We look back and he averaged 91 points, he missed the playoffs two seasons, lost in the first round two seasons, lost in the second round two seasons, lost in the ECF one season, and lost a cup final.

Does that make him a failure or is that success?

Like past management of the Flyers, some Flyers fans don't have patience to watch the Flyers build through the draft but the Flyers didn't have success building through quick fixes and getting rid of young players in the process. I think you'll have to wait and see if Hextall's approach is successful but what he's done so far has been good. He's restocking the young players, being patience with their development and getting rid of dead wood. Hopefully in the next couple of years the Flyers will transition into yearly contenders that hopefully end up winning a cup down the road.

[OccamsRazor]

1 hour ago, icehole said:

It was a bust.  They happen to all GMs.  Despite that long list of bad moves by Homer, he kept it exciting (for me at least) and won a lot of games.

 

 

To steal a line from Rusty Rad....why didn't they hang any banners in the rafters...

 

"Keeping it exciting 2010!"

 

 

 

[icehole]

6 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

 

To steal a line from Rusty Rad....why didn't they hang any banners in the rafters...

 

"Keeping it exciting 2010!"

 

 

 

When you say "rusty rad" you're not talking about @radoran are you?  He and I came to the conclusion that we don't need championships (banners as you call them) to be entertained.  And there are banners in the rafters...one from 2010 actually.

[King Knut]

REVISITING THIS after having just looked at the Flyers Roster and Cap...

 

As impressive as the work he's done has been (and I do applaud him) Hextall still has his work cut out for him.  This team has a lot of good coming and should be able to afford to resign MDZ and Ghost this summer, but he'll have to figure out a way to unload Read and MacDonald's contracts and sign some offensive threats if Hextall is going to make the team a cup contender any time soon.  

 

If he can't trade Reader this year, he's gone after next, but that's two years we're paying for a guy whose not scoring and we have enough responsbile role players who don't score who make far less.  

Mac will outlive us all.  Our only hope is that he plays in the NHL and plays well enough to pique the interest of a vegas or Carolina or Phoenix who need a responsible player and probably some push toward the minimum.  

 

Until then, it's just hoping the existing crew pull it together and take strides.   Which isn't impossible, but the Kings needed to add Richie, Carts and Willie to crest the hump and the Hawks have needed a few extra pieces all three of their years as well and I think these Flyers have a ways to go to be at the base level of those teams.  

 

 

[brelic]

2 hours ago, King Knut said:

REVISITING THIS after having just looked at the Flyers Roster and Cap...

 

As impressive as the work he's done has been (and I do applaud him) Hextall still has his work cut out for him.  This team has a lot of good coming and should be able to afford to resign MDZ and Ghost this summer, but he'll have to figure out a way to unload Read and MacDonald's contracts and sign some offensive threats if Hextall is going to make the team a cup contender any time soon.  

 

If he can't trade Reader this year, he's gone after next, but that's two years we're paying for a guy whose not scoring and we have enough responsbile role players who don't score who make far less.  

Mac will outlive us all.  Our only hope is that he plays in the NHL and plays well enough to pique the interest of a vegas or Carolina or Phoenix who need a responsible player and probably some push toward the minimum.  

 

Until then, it's just hoping the existing crew pull it together and take strides.   Which isn't impossible, but the Kings needed to add Richie, Carts and Willie to crest the hump and the Hawks have needed a few extra pieces all three of their years as well and I think these Flyers have a ways to go to be at the base level of those teams.  

 

 

 

Good points.

 

You know what? I would not be surprised if Hextall buys out MacDud after this season. It doesn't look too bad, honestly.

 

2017-18  $1,583,333
2018-19  $1,333,333
2019-20  $1,083,333
2020-21  $1,833,333
2021-22  $1,833,333
2022-23  $1,833,333

 

The other option is to trade him, and retain, say, $2M cap hit (for only 3 years instead of 6). 

 

Either way, I don't think MacDud will be part of this organization next fall. That's too much money tied up for too long on a fringe player, and there are reasonable exit strategies.

 

I'd love to see MDZ resigned as a mentor/vet to the younger kids. Streit and Schultz will be gone, leaving him and Gudas as the stewards on the backend. I think both those guys offer something different for the kids to model, and they both seem to be really good team guys. 

 

Read is a tough call - I don't think he has very much trade value. It might be at a loss, but getting rid of Read is a win for us. He's replaceable at his current ability level.

 

[AJgoal]

Interesting tidbit from Isaac this morning:

 

Another point of interest: Holmgren stepped down because the Weber offer sheet tarnished him. VAN called about Hexy and that sealed the deal

 

So the Weber sheet pushed Homer out the door, but the prospect of Hextall going elsewhere slammed it. Flyers were too afraid of losing him.

 

Wonder how Vancouver would look with Hextall as GM.

[King Knut]

2 hours ago, AJgoal said:

Interesting tidbit from Isaac this morning:

 

Another point of interest: Holmgren stepped down because the Weber offer sheet tarnished him. VAN called about Hexy and that sealed the deal

 

So the Weber sheet pushed Homer out the door, but the prospect of Hextall going elsewhere slammed it. Flyers were too afraid of losing him.

 

Wonder how Vancouver would look with Hextall as GM.

 

Read that.  Interesting stuff.   I remember it was I think a year or two later that Yzerman was VERY publicly vocal about how he would do all he could to screw the Flyers over (on Giroux most likely) if they tried to sign Stamkos to an offer sheet in his last RFA contract.  This was at a time when Homer still couldn't so much as talk to his agent.    At the time I was thinking that Yzerman was being a bit of a brat, but now it sure makes a lot of sense because Homer really did screw over the Predators something royal with that deal.  So much so that Weber isn't even a predator anymore.  

[elmatus]

On October 5, 2016 at 3:09 PM, brelic said:

 

Good points.

 

You know what? I would not be surprised if Hextall buys out MacDud after this season. It doesn't look too bad, honestly.

 

2017-18  $1,583,333
2018-19  $1,333,333
2019-20  $1,083,333
2020-21  $1,833,333
2021-22  $1,833,333
2022-23  $1,833,333

 

The other option is to trade him, and retain, say, $2M cap hit (for only 3 years instead of 6). 

 

Either way, I don't think MacDud will be part of this organization next fall. That's too much money tied up for too long on a fringe player, and there are reasonable exit strategies.

 

I'd love to see MDZ resigned as a mentor/vet to the younger kids. Streit and Schultz will be gone, leaving him and Gudas as the stewards on the backend. I think both those guys offer something different for the kids to model, and they both seem to be really good team guys. 

 

Read is a tough call - I don't think he has very much trade value. It might be at a loss, but getting rid of Read is a win for us. He's replaceable at his current ability level.

 

 

I imagine McDud's future is likely related to how replaceable he is. If Sanheim and Morin look ready come next season, i expect McDud will be either moved with retained salary or just bought out to make room. 

 

Otherwise, losing Streit and Schultz leaves a pretty thin blue line corps. My guess is Hex will keep mcdud until he needs to move him.

 

As for Read, i still think he's going to Vegas. 

[AJgoal]

I think that as long as the Flyers can get by with his salary on the books, MacDonald isn't bought out. There's no real reason to carry salary for years after his contract expires if they don't absolutely have a need for the money.

[radoran]

On ‎10‎/‎4‎/‎2016 at 10:15 AM, icehole said:

When you say "rusty rad" you're not talking about @radoran are you?  He and I came to the conclusion that we don't need championships (banners as you call them) to be entertained.  And there are banners in the rafters...one from 2010 actually.

 

Well, I do think that championships are important because that's is what teams are here to achieve. There can be entertaining hockey and I'm currently enjoying an 11-game package with a team that is showing signs of going in the right direction.

 

I wouldn't have bought into Homer's "chasing the dragon" approach.

 

My "banners" comment was about why there isn't a "won the trade" banner in the Big Bank Building. Because unless you actually win something, no one cares about "winning the trade." Also, too, that Los Angeles got TWO banners to hang in their building with "STANLEY CUP CHAMPION" on them while the Flyers... don't.

[RJ8812]

On 05/10/2016 at 2:09 PM, brelic said:

 

Good points.

 

You know what? I would not be surprised if Hextall buys out MacDud after this season. It doesn't look too bad, honestly.

 

2017-18  $1,583,333
2018-19  $1,333,333
2019-20  $1,083,333
2020-21  $1,833,333
2021-22  $1,833,333
2022-23  $1,833,333

 

The other option is to trade him, and retain, say, $2M cap hit (for only 3 years instead of 6). 

 

Either way, I don't think MacDud will be part of this organization next fall. That's too much money tied up for too long on a fringe player, and there are reasonable exit strategies.

 

I'd love to see MDZ resigned as a mentor/vet to the younger kids. Streit and Schultz will be gone, leaving him and Gudas as the stewards on the backend. I think both those guys offer something different for the kids to model, and they both seem to be really good team guys. 

 

Read is a tough call - I don't think he has very much trade value. It might be at a loss, but getting rid of Read is a win for us. He's replaceable at his current ability level.

 

 

I highly doubt MacDonald is bought out or traded while retaining next summer. At least, not yet. It's too soon and the Flyers aren't up against the cap right now, so cap room isn't really a problem. 

 

Lets say the cap stays the same. That means we have roughly $22m in cap space next year (including Umberger's dead cap). Our forward RFAs include Lyubinov, Cousins, Laughton and Leier. Re-signing them should cost around $4m in total. On the blueline, our only RFA is Gostisbehere, and let's assume we re-sign him to a shorter contract around $4.5m. Stolarz is penciled in as our back-up and re-signed around around $1m. So after we re-sign our RFAs, we still have $12.5m.

 

With that, comes our UFAs. Up front, my assumption is that one of Bellemare and VandeVelde will be back at around $1m. Gordon won't be back. On the blueline, neither Streit nor Schultz will be back. Del Zotto is a question mark. I'd like him back too because you can't just have a bunch of kids back there. Let's say he comes back on a short-term deal at around $5m. Then re-sign Mason at $5.5m. Now that leaves us with roughly $1m in cap space.

 

Now this is before we lose our player from the expansion draft, which my guess will be Read, which frees up an extra $3.5m, giving us $4.5m. Factor in a young guy on the blueline giving us 7 (Morin or Sanheim) and that gives us around $3.5m in cap space (probably more if the cap goes us)

 

So while MacDonald's contract is awful, it's not hurting us financially enough to warrant getting rid of him and creating more dead cap space.

[ruxpin]

22 minutes ago, RJ8812 said:

So while MacDonald's contract is awful, it's not hurting us financially enough to warrant getting rid of him and creating more dead cap space.

 

Unless Hextall wants to do something like throw money at a top-line forward.   Otherwise agree with a very well-written post.

 

And I actually doubt the "throw money at a top-line forward" thing.  I could see him trying to repeat a Konecny-type late round draft pick to fill that kind of need rather than going out of character and grabbing a high-priced winger (or 2nd line center).   

 

So, yeah, I don't see the MacDonald thing happening until later in his contract, if at all.

[RJ8812]

1 hour ago, ruxpin said:

 

Unless Hextall wants to do something like throw money at a top-line forward.   Otherwise agree with a very well-written post.

 

And I actually doubt the "throw money at a top-line forward" thing.  I could see him trying to repeat a Konecny-type late round draft pick to fill that kind of need rather than going out of character and grabbing a high-priced winger (or 2nd line center).   

 

So, yeah, I don't see the MacDonald thing happening until later in his contract, if at all.

 

I just dont see Hextall overpaying for a UFA. Maybe making a trade, but not going the UFA route. 

[radoran]

1 hour ago, ruxpin said:

 

Unless Hextall wants to do something like throw money at a top-line forward.   Otherwise agree with a very well-written post.

 

And I actually doubt the "throw money at a top-line forward" thing.  I could see him trying to repeat a Konecny-type late round draft pick to fill that kind of need rather than going out of character and grabbing a high-priced winger (or 2nd line center).   

 

So, yeah, I don't see the MacDonald thing happening until later in his contract, if at all.

 

We've just got to hope that Boston has three picks ahead of us that they screw up...

 

[ruxpin]

2 minutes ago, radoran said:

 

We've just got to hope that Boston has three picks ahead of us that they screw up...

 

Hear Hear! 

[BobbyClarkeFan16]

On 12/17/2016 at 0:29 PM, RJ8812 said:

 

I highly doubt MacDonald is bought out or traded while retaining next summer. At least, not yet. It's too soon and the Flyers aren't up against the cap right now, so cap room isn't really a problem. 

 

Lets say the cap stays the same. That means we have roughly $22m in cap space next year (including Umberger's dead cap). Our forward RFAs include Lyubinov, Cousins, Laughton and Leier. Re-signing them should cost around $4m in total. On the blueline, our only RFA is Gostisbehere, and let's assume we re-sign him to a shorter contract around $4.5m. Stolarz is penciled in as our back-up and re-signed around around $1m. So after we re-sign our RFAs, we still have $12.5m.

 

With that, comes our UFAs. Up front, my assumption is that one of Bellemare and VandeVelde will be back at around $1m. Gordon won't be back. On the blueline, neither Streit nor Schultz will be back. Del Zotto is a question mark. I'd like him back too because you can't just have a bunch of kids back there. Let's say he comes back on a short-term deal at around $5m. Then re-sign Mason at $5.5m. Now that leaves us with roughly $1m in cap space.

 

Now this is before we lose our player from the expansion draft, which my guess will be Read, which frees up an extra $3.5m, giving us $4.5m. Factor in a young guy on the blueline giving us 7 (Morin or Sanheim) and that gives us around $3.5m in cap space (probably more if the cap goes us)

 

So while MacDonald's contract is awful, it's not hurting us financially enough to warrant getting rid of him and creating more dead cap space.

 

I don't think Del Zotto will be back. You'd figure if the Flyers had him as a key player, they would have re-signed him already. I really think Hextall is going for max cap space this off season. He could have upwards of 25 million in cap space available to him and you can bet other teams are going to notice and are going to make calls. I think Hextall is going to do an Arizona and acquire contracts and other assets from teams and get much needed pieces that way as well.

[King Knut]

On 10/4/2016 at 8:02 AM, icehole said:

In the eminger example, that was not the case.  Although the flyers lost their #27 pick, that doesn't mean they had 0% chance of it working.  They got a player in return that was a #12 pick with desired intangibles. It just didn't work out and Carlson is working out, so it looks bad now.

 

I'm fairly certain the Flyers wouldn't have selected Carlson with the #27 pick that year.  

 

Even then, I'm not sure I make that trade.  When someone's willing to trade you their former first round pick for a later first round pick, you really have to reassess the value of that player.  

 

LA gave us value for Richards and Columbus gave us value for Carter.  Those trades made a lot of sense on paper (not in the context of keeping Pronger too, then signing a "win now" goalie, but I digress).  

 

It's okay to put Eminger amongst the Flyers worst deals.  Trading him and Downie (a prime example of a team screwing up a first round pick) for Matt Carle was a pretty good deal though.