Selling Low on Provorov or High on Konecny ?

[mojo1917]

Elliotte Friedman Drops a Bomb Regarding One of the League's Top Young Defenceman | hockeypatrol.com

This is one of many links available from more national sources regarding a possible trade of Ivan Provorov.

I randomly picked this, both Elliot Freidman and Pierre LeBruin have reported both camps Provorov and the Flyers aren't feeling the love any longer.

Our local guys have been tip toeing around this topic also. Charlie O'Connor recently did an article on what a trade of #9 might look like and what's going on, including an interesting tidbit about Ivan's lack of popularity among his peers. 

What the Philadelphia Flyers could gain from trading Ivan Provorov - The Athletic

 

At this point it seems like the team would be selling low on the former crown jewel of the "young core". I think maybe #9 is burnt-out and isn't a candidate for being coached up in this environment. He screams change of scenery guy to me, and that bums me out. He'll be traded, mature and turn into the guy we thought we were getting 4 years ago. It feels inevitable.

 

Konecny on the other hand seems to have found his pre-pandemic juice. He has been fun to watch on the PK, his energy and aggressive nature make his forward pair high event hockey watching. He's shooting at an unsustainably high rate 20% but has done a lot of work to get into the scoring areas and can be relentless while dogging pucks. If his shooting % reverts to the mean, he'll still going to top 80 points and 40 goals this season. He's driving play,all the good stuff. Lots of credit is being given to Daniel Briere for working with TK int the film room and with the spread sheet.

It appears he's turning into that Marchand-lite player we thought we were getting in 2018/19.

 

The questions around him are, do you build around him? is he a part of the team's core solution going forward, is he leadership material? 

Different questions but his contract situation is similar to Provorov's in that he'll be due for a pay raise around age 27-28 and is he a guy that gets signed long term ?

 

What do we think would be acceptable returns for each of the players should they be traded?  What do we think the probable returns will be?

Is it even a good idea or can each player be part of the "new Flyers" ?

 

[flyercanuck]

23 minutes ago, mojo1917 said:

Elliotte Friedman Drops a Bomb Regarding One of the League's Top Young Defenceman | hockeypatrol.com

This is one of many links available from more national sources regarding a possible trade of Ivan Provorov.

I randomly picked this, both Elliot Freidman and Pierre LeBruin have reported both camps Provorov and the Flyers aren't feeling the love any longer.

Our local guys have been tip toeing around this topic also. Charlie O'Connor recently did an article on what a trade of #9 might look like and what's going on, including an interesting tidbit about Ivan's lack of popularity among his peers. 

What the Philadelphia Flyers could gain from trading Ivan Provorov - The Athletic

 

At this point it seems like the team would be selling low on the former crown jewel of the "young core". I think maybe #9 is burnt-out and isn't a candidate for being coached up in this environment. He screams change of scenery guy to me, and that bums me out. He'll be traded, mature and turn into the guy we thought we were getting 4 years ago. It feels inevitable.

 

Konecny on the other hand seems to have found his pre-pandemic juice. He has been fun to watch on the PK, his energy and aggressive nature make his forward pair high event hockey watching. He's shooting at an unsustainably high rate 20% but has done a lot of work to get into the scoring areas and can be relentless while dogging pucks. If his shooting % reverts to the mean, he'll still going to top 80 points and 40 goals this season. He's driving play,all the good stuff. Lots of credit is being given to Daniel Briere for working with TK int the film room and with the spread sheet.

It appears he's turning into that Marchand-lite player we thought we were getting in 2018/19.

 

The questions around him are, do you build around him? is he a part of the team's core solution going forward, is he leadership material? 

Different questions but his contract situation is similar to Provorov's in that he'll be due for a pay raise around age 27-28 and is he a guy that gets signed long term ?

 

What do we think would be acceptable returns for each of the players should they be traded?  What do we think the probable returns will be?

Is it even a good idea or can each player be part of the "new Flyers" ?

 

 

I've said before, I'd trade anyone if the price is right. 

 

Provorov is probably going to be a sell low guy, as you mentioned. Konecny should bring in a top prospect and a 1st at the very least. 

 

I don't trust Fletcher to trade a chewed up piece of gum and not get totalled raped in the deal.

Edited January 13, 2023 by flyercanuck

[Podein25]

Selling low on anyone should be avoided if possible, but selling low on Provy seems especially stoopid. The kid had Norris potential until the Flyers got hold of him. 

[radoran]

22 minutes ago, mojo1917 said:

It appears he's turning into that Marchand-lite player we thought we were getting in 2018/19.

 

The questions around him are, do you build around him? is he a part of the team's core solution going forward, is he leadership material? 

 

If he's really a "Marchand type" then, yes. Marchand is a huge reason Boston is "Boston".

 

That said, it's not a decision I'm making this year unless we're talking about a strip down rebuild. Konecny is signed through the year before they finish paying Bryzgalov.

[mojo1917]

44 minutes ago, Podein25 said:

Selling low on anyone should be avoided if possible, but selling low on Provy seems especially stoopid. The kid had Norris potential until the Flyers got hold of him. 

 

Do you think Provorov can become a Norris caliber player for the Flyers?

They have tried multiple partners

Multiple coaches.

The mistakes he makes aren't of the "growing pains" variety anymore.

Is he not coachable?

I think this is part of his problem, at least on this team. I think he's got the shits of playing here. 

I know the minute he gets on another team he turns into Russian Duncan Keith, I'm not seeing that happening here.

Plus,I believe nearly everything has been tried to get him to take that next step. Either he's incapable or disinterested. 

Nick Seeler has improved, Risto has improved, Sanhiem is playing more like he should be under this current group of coaches. 

Ivan hasn't, he's still doing the same stupid ****, for nearly 3 seasons.

He's a roll out of bed top 4 NHL player because of his talent. I don't see him becoming more than that playing for the Flyers. It bums me out to think this.

 

[mojo1917]

36 minutes ago, radoran said:

If he's really a "Marchand type" then, yes. Marchand is a huge reason Boston is "Boston".

I know, the 2 consecutive years or underwhelm-ment makes him harder to judge for me too.

That said, didn't he lead the team in scoring last season?

He wasn't terrible, he was mostly meh...but he was surrounded by unghh, so that's making it more difficult to judge too. 

Trading him now would be the strip it to the studs move, on the record I hate that idea, but moving him now should provide the best return.

 

Again a bummer to think about, when 2.5 years ago both players were penciled in to the "the core" for next 7 years. 

[Podein25]

2 hours ago, mojo1917 said:

 

Do you think Provorov can become a Norris caliber player for the Flyers?

They have tried multiple partners

Multiple coaches.

The mistakes he makes aren't of the "growing pains" variety anymore.

Is he not coachable?

I think this is part of his problem, at least on this team. I think he's got the shits of playing here. 

I know the minute he gets on another team he turns into Russian Duncan Keith, I'm not seeing that happening here.

Plus,I believe nearly everything has been tried to get him to take that next step. Either he's incapable or disinterested. 

Nick Seeler has improved, Risto has improved, Sanhiem is playing more like he should be under this current group of coaches. 

Ivan hasn't, he's still doing the same stupid ****, for nearly 3 seasons.

He's a roll out of bed top 4 NHL player because of his talent. I don't see him becoming more than that playing for the Flyers. It bums me out to think this.

 

 

My view is that a player is capable of getting back to where they were at one point, all else being equal. There are no guarantees, of course, but I don't like selling low giving up on someone with special talent. 

 

Edited January 13, 2023 by Podein25

[radoran]

12 minutes ago, Podein25 said:

My view is that a player is capable of getting back to where they were at one point, all else being equal. There are no guarantees, of course, but I don't like giving up on someone with special talent. 

 

There is always the possibility that the player has given up on the organization.

 

He's on his second GM, and fifth coach in seven seasons. He's been to the playoffs three times and is (likely) to be in his third consecutive season without a playoff appearance.

 

They've overplayed him, saddled him with subpar partners, and have been essentially unable to give him an effective partner.

 

Some of that could certainly be on the player, but the organizational chaos is real.

 

The "change of scenery" is a real thing and could wind up helping both sides.

 

The flip side being Tortorella declaring Provorov is his kind of player and someone he feels needs to be a part of the team going forward.

 

We haven't really seen that...

Edited January 13, 2023 by radoran

[Podein25]

3 minutes ago, radoran said:

 

There is always the possibility that the player has given up on the organization.

 

He's on his second GM, and fifth coach in seven seasons. He's been to the playoffs three times and is (likely) to be in his third consecutive season without a playoff appearance.

 

They've overplayed him, saddled him with subpar partners, and have been essentially unable to give him an effective partner.

 

Some of that could certainly be on the player, but the organizational chaos is real.

 

The "change of scenery" is a real thing and could wind up helping both sides.

 

The flip side being Tortorella declaring Provorov is his kind of player and someone he feels needs to be a part of the team going forward.

 

We haven't really seen that...

 

I thought Ivan looked good paired with DeAngelo early on, then less noticeable. But I also haven't watched that many games. Been watching more Jets games. Now, imagine Ivan playing on that team? He'd have 20 goals. 

[GratefulFlyers]

Yes he was going good early on with TDA. Then they both slipped a few notches of involvement, got into a rut of making the “safe” play. Normally that’s a good thing but they sacrificed a huge part of their game, i.e. driving the play. 
 

I think Provorov was screaming “change of scenery” all last year and the year before. Not so now. His TO the other night was his first real WTF moment he’s had in a long time. Huge screwups like that are rare now. I have to believe he’s feeling better about his own game and probably the team (and the HC) as well. 

 

Provorov’s a gem and unless the return is of the OMG variety….but it won’t be, not just Because Fletcher, though that’s reason enough, but also because as you guys say it means selling low. 
 

Trading TK would rank high on the list of Fletcher’s Fk Ups and that’s not an easy list to top. You’d have to do something incredibly stupid and trading TK would qualify.

 

[Fuzz]

https://phillyhockeynow.com/2023/01/11/philadelphia-flyers-trade-talk-ivan-provorov-wants-to-stay-rumors-defensive-partners-cam-york-tony-deangelo-rasmus-ristolainen/

[SCFlyguy]

You don't have to trade him, but you certainly talk about it, and if you get say top prospect, 1st and 2nd (or better) you think real hard about it.

[GrittyForever]

idk if Provorov would be all that "low". D men (of all kinds) are usually hot commodities near the deadline so i think you could get a fair deal for him. 

 

I wouldn't trade Konecny. He seems to be thriving under Torts and that's what you want. I'm not trading anybody giving that sort of effort. 

Just dump JVR and Braun (if possible) at the deadline and call it a day (unless you can find a buyer for Hayes of course). 

 

and don't buy any rentals. That would be the height of stupidity. 

[flyercanuck]

4 hours ago, GrittyForever said:

and don't buy any rentals. That would be the height of stupidity. 

 

 

You've seen Fletchers transactions, right?

[GratefulFlyers]

re: rentals I brought it up as a joke - but it's not all that farfetched. If the Flyers keep winning and have a PO seed within their sights at the TD... I'm sure Fletcher and Co. would be tempted to trade picks and prospects for players that can Win Now!

[GratefulFlyers]

9 hours ago, GrittyForever said:

idk if Provorov would be all that "low". D men (of all kinds) are usually hot commodities near the deadline so i think you could get a fair deal for him. 

True. I guess it’s only selling low compared to what Provorov showed earlier in his NHL career. He’s had a long stretch of …. what to call it? … a notch or two above mediocrity, good enough to stay on the top pair of a bad team. I think that streak is over and he’s back to where he was, on the road to being one of the better D-men around the league.
 

A lot will depend on what management does with the roster. More than most players his game seems to rise and fall with the team. When the Flyers play well Provorov is excellent. When they stink he’s a turnover just waiting to happen. So maybe he’s not a leader and his best only comes out when everyone is on the same page. That sounds like a win-win to me. 
 

 

 

[GrittyForever]

2 hours ago, GratefulFlyers said:

True. I guess it’s only selling low compared to what Provorov showed earlier in his NHL career. He’s had a long stretch of …. what to call it? … a notch or two above mediocrity, good enough to stay on the top pair of a bad team. I think that streak is over and he’s back to where he was, on the road to being one of the better D-men around the league.
 

A lot will depend on what management does with the roster. More than most players his game seems to rise and fall with the team. When the Flyers play well Provorov is excellent. When they stink he’s a turnover just waiting to happen. So maybe he’s not a leader and his best only comes out when everyone is on the same page. That sounds like a win-win to me. 
 

 

 

That's true. Maybe a big part of Tort's plans for this year is/was recognizing what different people are good or bad at and not putting them in positions where they are asked for too much. Give them a role that suits them and their skills. If you do that and they give you effort, maybe that's the way to get the most out of everyone. 

[RonJeremy]

17 minutes ago, Lindbergh31 said:

Not if they keep winning games, they need to go on their typical 10 games losing streak to get back in the sweepstakes for Bedard. Now if Chuck Fletcher somehow doesn't **** up the trade deadline and manages to get rid of some players for picks then the losing may come a lot easier after the deadline. But other teams like Arizona, Columbus and Chicago will be trying to do the same thing. So the Flyers' chances of ending up with the first overall are slim to none.

 A top 5 pick would be good, we really are not bad enough for #1 or 2. We just have to hope we trade some of our vets at the deadline and some rookie mistakes  by our call ups to lose us a bunch of games.

 

I think Provorov is as good as gone, the media will run him outta town. That will hurt the defense. If we can somehow dump Hayes and JVR, that is a good chunk of the offense.  These moves could definitely drop us down 4-5 spots.

[radoran]

14 minutes ago, RonJeremy said:

, the media will run him outta town

 

You act as if the Philadelphia media covers the Flyers. Or that what coverage they get matters.

 

Provorov was likely already headed out of town.

[RonJeremy]

Just now, radoran said:

 

You act as if the Philadelphia media covers the Flyers. Or that what coverage they get matters.

 

Provorov was likely already headed out of town.

I wrote that he already was on his way and this is the icing on the cake. The media can talk about this for weeks, to them it's most interesting Flyers news all year.

[radoran]

1 minute ago, RonJeremy said:

I wrote that he already was on his way and this is the icing on the cake.

 

He's probably greasing the skids, no?

 

I see him in the KHL sooner than later...

[RonJeremy]

1 minute ago, radoran said:

 

Right, but if they don't get #1 or #2 they stay where they are or drop back.

Yes, we need some sustained losing. We still suck against good teams, so hopefully we have a string of tough opponents coming up, I haven't looked at the schedule.  

[RonJeremy]

1 minute ago, radoran said:

 

He's probably greasing the skids, no?

 

I see him in the KHL sooner than later...

That would be just our luck.

[radoran]

Just now, RonJeremy said:

Yes, we need some sustained losing. We still suck against good teams, so hopefully we have a string of tough opponents coming up, I haven't looked at the schedule.  

 

They have the Dead Things and the Blackhawks coming up...

 

After that it toughens up.

 

Some early deadline deals might help...

[radoran]

1 minute ago, RonJeremy said:

That would be just our luck.

 

Those rumors about him being traded didn't NOT come from the Flyers...