SCFlyguy Posted April 12, 2023 Share Posted April 12, 2023 (edited) I took a look at the teams above and below the Flyers in the 2023 draft, which devolved into trying to assess the futures of the Flyers and other teams that might be similarly situated. Explanations below: 2024 Roster/Cap Space: From Cap Friendly, roster size and cap space for next year. 5-Year Window Rank: From https://www.yardbarker.com/nhl/articles/ranking_the_five_year_windows_for_all_32_nhl_teams/s1__37836839#slide_1, an assessment of how successful the team will be in the next 5 years, which I guess is a measure of current roster and prospect pool that is close to ready. These rankings are from before the trade deadline, so are dated. For instance, they don't take into account the Blues trading some of their vets for prospects. I would also disagree with some of these rankings - Pittsburgh and Washington are too high imo - but it is presented as an independent measure of where a team stands in the next couple of years. Prospect Rankings: From https://thehockeywriters.com/nhl-farm-system-rankings/. Just what it says, even if slightly dated (from mid-2022-2023). Imo, this ranking combined with the number of Draft Picks discussed below, show the possible path to a team outperforming their 5-Year Window Rank. In other words, yes, Chicago is going to be terrible for the next 1-4 years, but you could make a case that if they hit on some of their picks (and they have so, so many), they could be ready to turn things around starting in years 4-5 and beyond. Draft Picks First 3 Rounds: The number of first/second/third round picks in the 2023, 2024, and 2025 drafts. Columbus: 2024 Roster/Cap Space: 17/$18.4M 5-Year Window Rank: 22 Prospect Rankings: 6 Draft Picks First 3 Rounds: 2023: 2/1/2 2024: 1/1/2 2025: 1/1/1 Anaheim: 2024 Roster/Cap Space: 16/$38.1M 5-Year Window Rank: 24 Prospect Rankings: 3 Draft Picks First 3 Rounds: 2023: 1/3/2 2024: 1/2/3 2025: 1/1/1 Chicago: 2024 Roster/Cap Space: 14/$40.9M 5-Year Window Rank: 32 Prospect Rankings: 10 Draft Picks First 3 Rounds: 2023: 2/4/2 2024: 2/2/2 2025: 2/2/1 San Jose: 2024 Roster/Cap Space: 18/$13.2M 5-Year Window Rank: 29 Prospect Rankings: 17 Draft Picks First 3 Rounds: 2023: 2/1/1 2024: 1/2/0 2025: 1/1/1 Montreal: 2024 Roster/Cap Space: 20/$9.7M 5-Year Window Rank: 20 Prospect Rankings: 12 Draft Picks First 3 Rounds: 2023: 2/1/1 2024: 1/1/1 2025: 2/1/1 Arizona: 2024 Roster/Cap Space: 14/$26.2M 5-Year Window Rank: 31 Prospect Rankings: 8 Draft Picks First 3 Rounds: 2023: 2/1/4 2024: 1/4/3 2025: 1/4/2 Philadelphia: 2024 Roster/Cap Space: 16/$8.0M 5-Year Window Rank: 30 Prospect Rankings: 24 Draft Picks First 3 Rounds: 2023: 1/0/2 2024: 2/0/1 2025: 1/1/1 Washington: 2024 Roster/Cap Space: 17/$5.8M 5-Year Window Rank: 12 Prospect Rankings: 23 Draft Picks First 3 Rounds: 2023: 1/1/0 2024: 1/0/3 2025: 1/3/1 Detroit: 2024 Roster/Cap Space: 16/$29.8M 5-Year Window Rank: 16 Prospect Rankings: 4 Draft Picks First 3 Rounds: 2023: 2/3/1 2024: 2/1/1 2025: 1/1/1 Vancouver: 2024 Roster/Cap Space: 20/$0.0M 5-Year Window Rank: 21 Prospect Rankings: 30 Draft Picks First 3 Rounds: 2023: 1/0/2 2024: 1/0/1 2025: 1/1/1 St. Louis: 2024 Roster/Cap Space: 19/$5.9M 5-Year Window Rank: 10 Prospect Rankings: 18 Draft Picks First 3 Rounds: 2023: 3/0/2 2024: 1/2/2 2025: 1/1/1 Ottawa: 2024 Roster/Cap Space: 14/$14.4M 5-Year Window Rank: 19 Prospect Rankings: 22 Draft Picks First 3 Rounds: 2023: 0/0/0 2024: 1/1/0 2025: 1/1/1 Buffalo: 2024 Roster/Cap Space: 10/$19.4M 5-Year Window Rank: 25 Prospect Rankings: 5 Draft Picks First 3 Rounds: 2023: 1/2/1 2024: 1/1/1 2025: 1/1/1 Pittsburgh: 2024 Roster/Cap Space: 14/$20.2 5-Year Window Rank: 11 Prospect Rankings: 32 Draft Picks First 3 Rounds: 2023: 1/0/1 2024: 1/1/1 2025: 1/1/1 Edited April 12, 2023 by radoran Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SCFlyguy Posted April 12, 2023 Author Share Posted April 12, 2023 Ah dammit, can a mod replace that semi-colon with a comma? TIA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mojo1917 Posted April 12, 2023 Share Posted April 12, 2023 The joke about trading second round picks...oi This is an interesting compilation. It's no small consolation, but the Flyers will get a 2nd round pick this year for not signing Jay O'Brien...which also speaks to the systemic failure. I mean, I'd rather have that pick playing on the team and contributing the way 1st picks should. So many misses and under performing players from the draft over the last 10 years. Chuck should have been fired last summer. There should have been a "bias" for reacquiring picks in this draft. 2 firsts next year? Frost and Patrick- anyone? It's like the entirety of the team's leadership was zonked on benzos since the pandemic. It is a bleak looking future. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flyer4ever Posted April 12, 2023 Share Posted April 12, 2023 a little hextall memorial here. Patrick, Obrien, Hakstol, Provorov, all from Hextalls band of buddies. Lets go Flyers! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mkscrewy Posted April 12, 2023 Share Posted April 12, 2023 is the 2nd round pick for O'Brien this year? I've read it's 2024 also, but haven't confirmed either one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mojo1917 Posted April 12, 2023 Share Posted April 12, 2023 2 minutes ago, mkscrewy said: is the 2nd round pick for O'Brien this year? I've read it's 2024 also, but haven't confirmed either one. My understanding is because the Flyers won't extend him and he's no longer NCAA eligible, the pick can be for this year. I may have mis-interpret-tated what I was reading. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SCFlyguy Posted April 12, 2023 Author Share Posted April 12, 2023 2 hours ago, mojo1917 said: The joke about trading second round picks...oi This is an interesting compilation. It's no small consolation, but the Flyers will get a 2nd round pick this year for not signing Jay O'Brien...which also speaks to the systemic failure. I mean, I'd rather have that pick playing on the team and contributing the way 1st picks should. So many misses and under performing players from the draft over the last 10 years. Chuck should have been fired last summer. There should have been a "bias" for reacquiring picks in this draft. 2 firsts next year? Frost and Patrick- anyone? It's like the entirety of the team's leadership was zonked on benzos since the pandemic. It is a bleak looking future. That was kind of my conclusion. They are in a venn diagram of currently bad roster and cap situation, few veteran players anyone would want, poor prospect pool, and few future assets. When you add all that up, it's hard for me to see how a rebuild is going to do anything for 5+ years. My ways to try to fix this: trade Konecny, trade Provorov, and maybe trade Hart. You could go from having an effed up team with no assets, to an effed up team with a huge stockpile of assets and eventually cap space when Hayes, Risto, etc. contracts are over. One thing for sure: the Flyers should not, under any circumstances, include a draft pick to get rid of any player on their roster. They just don't have the assets to spare. I think Pittsburgh is in a terrible position. Their cornerstones still have years on their contracts and are only getting worse from here on out. They have a worse prospect pool than the Flyers. They do have three cups to show for it though. I would take that. Vancouver might be in a worse position than the Flyers. They somehow have fewer high picks than the Flyers and a worse prospect pool. Not familiar enough with their roster to know how quickly they might be better. They might be able to replenish things by trading JT Miller and others. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GratefulFlyers Posted April 12, 2023 Share Posted April 12, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, SCFlyguy said: currently bad roster “currently” is the operative word here. I’ll say again what I’ve been saying ever since Hayes and then Ristolainen were signed: they don’t just slow down the process they throw a monkey wrench into it. For a team trying to play smarter and faster … fuggetaboutit. Maybe if they had just one of them but a roster with both Hayes and Ristolainen is doomed to suck. 1 hour ago, SCFlyguy said: poor prospect pool, and few future assets I don’t know about that. There are some young, talented forwards already contributing to the Flyers and more to come next season. Probably no HOFers in the making but some good 2-way players who can score goals. The Flyers aren’t ready for a Panarin, Ovechkin, Dreisetl type yet anyway so I’m not looking for them now. In a year or three… The back end is a little more sketchy but D-men generally take longer to develop. Again nobody amazing but quite possibly a handful of solid 2nd and 3rd pair guys are already in the system. For me the main thing to accomplish this summer (besides drafting well) is to unload Hayes. It looks like DeAngelo will be shopped (healthy scratch 4 games running) and if they can get out from under Ristolainen’s idiotic contract somehow the Flyers will be in a much better position to rebuild. The other main thing….if you’ll allow me two….is to decide about Provorov. Before they decide I’d suggest somebody who’s got a good rapport with him figures out where his head’s at with respect to the Flyers. Maybe check in with Tortorella first, see what he thinks about Provorov’s game. Obviously there’s a ton of other stuff to consider, the LTIR crew, the cap situation etc. Just get rid of Hayes, figure out what’s up with Provorov and I’ll be very happy to tune in next year. Edited April 12, 2023 by GratefulFlyers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mojo1917 Posted April 12, 2023 Share Posted April 12, 2023 1 hour ago, SCFlyguy said: One thing for sure: the Flyers should not, under any circumstances, include a draft pick to get rid of any player on their roster. They just don't have the assets to spare. I agree with this. I would pay part of the Hayes contract for him to play elsewhere. He's not a terrible hockey player and if a team could sign him for 5ish + or - .aav I think there would be a few takers. He's not top line talent, but he's paid like it, retaining salary on his contract is the way to be fair to him and get and free up a roster spot and 5 mill a year in cap space. I would do the same for Ristolainen, though I think Torts might not hate him the way the fans here do. So maybe he stays, and maybe he plays more like he did the 2nd part of this season which wasn't terrible. To me having a "dead money" player for the next 2 or 3 years isn't terrible either. If parts of bad contracts are retained and the .aav adds up to a 6 to 7 million a year player, but there are 3 less stiffs on the roster, it's a win. The different lengths of contracts means the dead money guy is less drag on the cap each year. So if some draft picks work out and some guys like Ol' Foerester hit or exceed their ceiling. The cap will be cleared at about the time a high-ticket F/A could be pursued to get the team to the next level. I think it will take some unconventional thinking like that to clean up the mess that was made over the last 2 seasons in particular. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lindbergh31 Posted April 13, 2023 Share Posted April 13, 2023 11 hours ago, flyer4ever said: a little hextall memorial here. Patrick, Obrien, Hakstol, Provorov, all from Hextalls band of buddies. Lets go Flyers! On the bright side, Hextall, Crosby and the rest of the Penguins will miss the playoffs for the first time in 16 years, so the Hextall curse continues. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrittyForever Posted April 13, 2023 Share Posted April 13, 2023 22 minutes ago, Lindbergh31 said: On the bright side, Hextall, Crosby and the rest of the Penguins will miss the playoffs for the first time in 16 years, so the Hextall curse continues. Ya, they are done and more done. Old and no cap space to get better. Hextall might get canned again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrittyForever Posted April 14, 2023 Share Posted April 14, 2023 So no need to search for a President any more. They can re-hire Hextall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radoran Posted April 14, 2023 Share Posted April 14, 2023 16 minutes ago, GrittyForever said: They can re-hire Hextall If his first move is to visit the Senior Advisors' Suite with the same message they brought him, I'm all for it. But, while we're looking at people who are available to be the "seasoned hockey guy" shepherding the newly minted GM Danny Briere - Brian Burke... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrittyForever Posted April 14, 2023 Share Posted April 14, 2023 26 minutes ago, radoran said: If his first move is to visit the Senior Advisors' Suite with the same message they brought him, I'm all for it. But, while we're looking at people who are available to be the "seasoned hockey guy" shepherding the newly minted GM Danny Briere - Brian Burke... Brian Burke.....................ya, now that's an interesting concept. Burke and Torts. That'll either turn us into the toughest and meanest team in the NHL or it'll lead to manslaughter in the boardroom. Either way, sounds good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flyercanuck Posted April 14, 2023 Share Posted April 14, 2023 If they hire Burke, after I vomit, I will go find another sport to cheer for. He made the Leafs as bad as the FletchFlyers with his "truculence" campaign. And turned the 16 straight season playoff Pens into a lottery team. What's not to like there. First person who says "Let's just give him a chance" gets crosschecked in the teeth. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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