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Flyers Half-Way Assessment: Your Take?


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7 hours ago, OccamsRazor said:

Trevor Zegras will be a Flyer no less than the start of next season.

 

You heard it here first.

 

Carry on.

 

Zegras is a great highlight reel package....not much of a player in his own end. And not great enough to not be. 

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2 hours ago, ctid said:

Just as an exercise, what would it take to get Zegras?

 

We went through this exercise a few months ago.  Zegras (22) was 9th overall pick during the 2019 Draft for the Ducks.  The Ducks are a young team rebuilding just like the Flyers.  He is considered a BIG part of their future moving forward along with the likes of Mason McTavish and Leo Carlsson.

 

IMO, the Ducks are not trading Zegras away.  Like the Flyers, the Ducks are in the middle of rebuild themselves.  Adding Leo Carlsson to a line with Terry and Zegras will give them a potent PP1 and top line in another year or two for years to come.

 

Zegras is a 6 foot center with tremendous hockey IQ and playmaking ability, and is an outstanding passer.  After bulking up in college there is no doubt he will become a legit superstar and #1 Center on the top line.

 

Zegras remains one of the bright spots for a Ducks team that continues to be a work in progress. As I mentioned above, Zegras was the 9th overall pick in the 2019 NHL Entry Draft, and at that time he instantly became Anaheim’s top prospect. Last year, he finished second in voting for the Calder Trophy.

 

Zegras is a playmaker and there is already talk withing the Ducks organization to move him to wing with the addition of Carlsson.

 

IMHO, the Ducks won't even even begin to entertain offers unless it includes a 1st Round Pick and a high end prospect or a quality veteran coming back.

 

For the sake of argument I figure it will cost probably at least a 1st and either a 2nd/3rd rounder and at least 1 of either (Foerster or Brink).   I am leaving out Michkov because had the Ducks wanted him, they would have drafted him.

 

They might want a veteran player in return ....  The Ducks could theoretically ask for a player like TK or Hart.  

 

Unless something really drastic occurs, I don't see the Ducks trading Zegras away.

 

 

Edited by pilldoc
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3 hours ago, flyercanuck said:

 

Zegras is a great highlight reel package....not much of a player in his own end. And not great enough to not be. 

 

Kid has 2 60+ point season by 21.

 

Not so worried about his defense in his own end so much TK had to learn and so can he.

 

He'll be a Flyer by next year the Ducks started their rebuild over that is why they traded Drysdale and wanted Cutter so the core would be young like Carlsson.

 

He will be the next kid moved out.

 

Just wait. Danny will be there to pounce.

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14 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said:

He'll be a Flyer by next year the Ducks started their rebuild over that is why they traded Drysdale and wanted Cutter so the core would be young like Carlsson.

 

He will be the next kid moved out.

 

If the Ducks move on from Zegras then that is GM malpractice.  

 

We would crucify our GM if the situation was reversed ......

 

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6 minutes ago, pilldoc said:

 

If the Ducks move on from Zegras then that is GM malpractice.  

 

We would crucify our GM if the situation was reversed ......

 

 

It's coming. They have been rebuilding since Pronger left...I couldn't care less. 

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4 hours ago, flyercanuck said:

 

Zegras is a great highlight reel package....not much of a player in his own end. And not great enough to not be. 

 

So look what Matt Boldy has accomplished and his 7 mill per deal....so you ok with him and his play he got that off 1 60 point season...

 

...yeah I would trade a lot for Zegras and TZ is on a team thar is bad since he has been int the NHL.

 

Once this kid breaks out he'll be a star I'd like it on the Flyers!

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3 hours ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

So look what Matt Boldy has accomplished and his 7 mill per deal....so you ok with him and his play he got that off 1 60 point season...

 

...yeah I would trade a lot for Zegras and TZ is on a team thar is bad since he has been int the NHL.

 

Once this kid breaks out he'll be a star I'd like it on the Flyers!

 

No idea what Boldy has to do with Zegras or the Flyers....other than...Minnesota! 😁

 

4 hours ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

Kid has 2 60+ point season by 21.

 

Not so worried about his defense in his own end so much TK had to learn and so can he.

 

He'll be a Flyer by next year the Ducks started their rebuild over that is why they traded Drysdale and wanted Cutter so the core would be young like Carlsson.

 

He will be the next kid moved out.

 

Just wait. Danny will be there to pounce.

 

From what I've heard, his play outside the offensive zone is the only reason the Ducks would move on him. That and bad penalties.

 

The Ducks traded 21 year old Jamie Drysdale so they could get younger?....and got 20 year old Cutter Gauthier? I mean I guess he is technically younger....but if I wanted to get younger, I'd move an older player than a 21 year old. Also take into account dmen generally take way longer to develop .....but pretty sure they moved Drysdale because they were deep at young D and that's what Philly wanted. 

 

 

 

 

Edited by flyercanuck
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2 minutes ago, flyercanuck said:

 

No idea what Boldy has to do with Zegras or the Flyers....other than...Minnesota! 😁

 

Huh?

 

He is a LW who is pretty much Zegras same age and he gets most of his points on the powerplay with Krill Kaprizov.

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3 minutes ago, flyercanuck said:

From what I've heard, his play outside the offensive zone is the only reason the Ducks would move on him.

 

Come to Philly where Torts can teach him.

 

Torts has already been quoted saying he loves the kid and his game.

 

You won't get a player like him with either of those 1st round picks.

 

Don't worry Danny is already onto it...

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6 minutes ago, flyercanuck said:

The Ducks traded 21 year old Jamie Drysdale so they could get younger?

 

Cutter just turn 19 bro.

 

Put the bud down it's clouding your vision.

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1 hour ago, flyercanuck said:

 

Cutters turning 20 in 2 days bro...put the bourbon down

 

Ok i was wrong I thought it said the 9th.

 

Either way now he and Leo are only a year apart so the core will be able to grow together because they are about 4 years away. Like Verbeek wants it.

 

Zegras will be coming to Philly.

 

Danny will complete the mission he was almost a Flyer when the Kevin Hayes trade fell apart and they didn't have the assets to make it all go down.

 

That is why Drysdale and Zergas signed their contracts on October the 2nd and the 5th instead of earlier in the offseason.

 

But be patient Danny will double back to this and he will be a Flyer.

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On 1/15/2024 at 2:51 PM, ruxpin said:

 

If we can do it and a manageable term and cost ($2-$2.5M/3 yrs), I'm fine with it provided we can move Risto (+ retain) and Walker at the deadline.  If that were to happen we'd have Drysdale, York, Sanheim, and Seeler going into next year.  I'm actually okay with Wallker on the same kind of deal, but if we can move him for prospects/picks even better.   Plus, we have Andrae and Bonk in the system.  I guess Ginning, too, but I'm thinking if he was going to be something, he'd be here by now.

We also have a good right hander in Attard, so I would trade Walker or Risto, bit with Risto we probably have to eat salary. So trading Walker might be the best move. Only if some foolish team is willing to give up a first for Risto, then I'd eat salary, otherwise trade Walker.

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14 minutes ago, RonJeremy said:

We also have a good right hander in Attard, so I would trade Walker or Risto, bit with Risto we probably have to eat salary. So trading Walker might be the best move. Only if some foolish team is willing to give up a first for Risto, then I'd eat salary, otherwise trade Walker.

 

Where's Mike Milbury when you need him?

 

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2 hours ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

Ok i was wrong I thought it said the 9th.

 

Either way now he and Leo are only a year apart so the core will be able to grow together because they are about 4 years away. Like Verbeek wants it.

 

Zegras will be coming to Philly.

 

Danny will complete the mission he was almost a Flyer when the Kevin Hayes trade fell apart and they didn't have the assets to make it all go down.

 

That is why Drysdale and Zergas signed their contracts on October the 2nd and the 5th instead of earlier in the offseason.

 

But be patient Danny will double back to this and he will be a Flyer.

 

If we didn't have Michkov, I'd be more open to Zegras. (I get Michkov hasn't come over, but if he doesn't, we're kind of fubared anyway)  But if we're trading away more assets to bring in someone, specifically a centre, I want a guy who you want playing anywhere on the ice, not just the offensive zone. The Ducks certainly won't be giving him away. 

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Have to say I agree regarding Zegras. He would be an amazing addition. Don't really care too much about his defensive liability. Definitely think some of that can be corrected within a structured style of play and coaching. Besides a 22 year old with two consecutive seasons with 20+ goals and 60 point seasons, that's gold. And no way that this is his offensive ceiling. Can easily see him become a 80-90 point guy. We keep saying we don't always want the 200 foot two way middle of the lineup guys. Well elite offense comes with higher risk of play, and usually with some liability on the defensive end. That's why it's a team sport, surround him with the proper players and structure and you've struck gold. Him and michkov on the PP1, and split them up on 5-5.

Edited by ctid
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My assessment is how long can we continue to win and beats teams with clearly more talent. On paper we are a bottom ten team. We have good goaltending and some good young forwards but I think the biggest part of the improvement is due to Seeler and Walker playing over their heads in a contract year. I keep waiting for a collapse, but it's not happening. 

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29 minutes ago, RonJeremy said:

My assessment is how long can we continue to win and beats teams with clearly more talent. On paper we are a bottom ten team. We have good goaltending and some good young forwards but I think the biggest part of the improvement is due to Seeler and Walker playing over their heads in a contract year. I keep waiting for a collapse, but it's not happening. 

 

I think this is a *very* good way to look at things.

 

GF% and CorsiFor% tend to match up very well with each other: if a player is having unsustainable good luck, it should show up with a GF% a lot higher than expected (sort of like the entire Canucks team this year). The opposite generally holds true if his GF% is much lower than his CorsiFor%, but either way, as the games pile up, there's a tendency for these numbers to be pretty close to each other, plus or minus a couple of percent. A gap of 5-10% usually reverts to the mean.

 

If you look at those and their PDO, it's a decent look at whether or not a player has been getting the bounces: over 1.0, and the player's numbers are (except in the rare case of superstars) probably not sustainable, and if it's lower than 1.0, his results are unsustainably low.

 

Nick Seeler

GF%: 58.8%, CF%: 50.2%, PDO: 1.014

 

Sean Walker

GF%: 54.6%, 52 CF%, 0.996

 

So yes, just as you point out, Seeler's results are due for a collapse. When it will happen, nobody knows, but when a player is a getting a lot more of the goals than the possession indicates, with a high PDO, the regression is coming.

 

Walker, though, is getting results that are matching is play. He seems worth holding on to, for me.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by JR Ewing
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53 minutes ago, RonJeremy said:

I think the biggest part of the improvement is due to Seeler and Walker playing over their heads in a contract year Tortorella!

FIFY

:smileyandcomputer:

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1 hour ago, flyercanuck said:

 

If we didn't have Michkov, I'd be more open to Zegras. (I get Michkov hasn't come over, but if he doesn't, we're kind of fubared anyway)  But if we're trading away more assets to bring in someone, specifically a centre, I want a guy who you want playing anywhere on the ice, not just the offensive zone. The Ducks certainly won't be giving him away. 

 

Michkov just may be the center.

 

Zegras - Michkov - Konecny

 

Torts fix Risto he can teach Zegras.

 

That line looks awesome to me.

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