The Other Way To Move Up In The Draft

[DaGreatGazoo]

@Polaris922

It was still a heck of a write up by you however!!

**edit for spelling since my Iphone is stoopid*

Edited April 23, 2013 by DaGreatGazoo

[Polaris922]

@flyercanuck

I don't see Matta as being centerpiece for the top pick either. Agreed.

@jammer2

Depends on how you define better. Tougher player I agree. More physical and in your face? Yes. Defensively? Most likely. Scoring points? No. Offensive productivity and vision? No. Depends on what you're shopping for.

[Polaris922]

@Polaris922

It was still a heck of a right up by you however!!

Just an opinion. If he proves me wrong it won't break my heart. Just what I see so far. I don't go nuts over success in the OHL unless the guy is light years ahead of everyone else. And I'm forced to trust scouting reports more because I can't watch them play, just highlight video or limited NHL time.

[jammer2]

@Polaris922 Scott will be better all round than Beau. He's a better skater, and depending on his linemates, could score more than Beau also, he's a better all round prospect. Funny, Scott is ranked #35 in The Hockey News Top 50 prospects, but Beau is nowhere to be found....himmm. Although, to be fair, McKeens top 100 prospects has Scott listed at #87, and Beau rated at #69 (he slipped from #40 last year. In general, I trust McKeens more than THN, but in reality, once you get past the top 50-60, it becomes much more of a guessing game. TIme will tell, but you are undervaluing him. In 3 years I'd be willing to bet a buck a point.....Scott vs Beau, as long as he's not playing with Sid....lol.

[brelic]

Florida has first overall in a quality draft class.

Whoa there Tex. Didn't you know that the Flyers were going to convert their 3.4% chance into the 1st overall?

Seriously though, the last place team hasn't been getting the 1st overall that much over the years. And this year has even lower odds.

[flyercanuck]

@flyercanuck

I don't see Matta as being centerpiece for the top pick either. Agreed.

@jammer2

Depends on how you define better. Tougher player I agree. More physical and in your face? Yes. Defensively? Most likely. Scoring points? No. Offensive productivity and vision? No. Depends on what you're shopping for.

Wait, Bennett put up 28 points in 39 games in the AHL as a 21 year old. Laughton has 3 points in 6 games in the A as an 18 year old. And you don't see him having the offence Bennett has???? You don't think he could add about 20% more scoring over three years of development?

Edited April 23, 2013 by flyercanuck

[radoran]

@Polaris922 Scott will be better all round than Beau. He's a better skater, and depending on his linemates, could score more than Beau also, he's a better all round prospect. Funny, Scott is ranked #35 in The Hockey News Top 50 prospects, but Beau is nowhere to be found....himmm. Although, to be fair, McKeens top 100 prospects has Scott listed at #87, and Beau rated at #69 (he slipped from #40 last year. In general, I trust McKeens more than THN, but in reality, once you get past the top 50-60, it becomes much more of a guessing game. TIme will tell, but you are undervaluing him. In 3 years I'd be willing to bet a buck a point.....Scott vs Beau, as long as he's not playing with Sid....lol.

http://www.thehockeynews.com/articles/50530-NHL-scouts-rerank-2012-NHL-draft.html

THN did a "revaluation" of the last draft:

1. Nail Yakupov, RW (actually taken 1st by Edmonton)

2. Alex Galchenyuk, C (taken 3rd by Montreal)

3. Ryan Murray, D (taken 2nd by Columbus)

4. Jacob Trouba, D (taken 9th by Winnipeg)

5. Hampus Lindholm, D (taken 6th by Anaheim)

6. Mikhail Grigorenko, C (taken 12th by Buffalo)

7. Morgan Rielly, D (taken 5th by Toronto)

8. Filip Forsberg, RW (taken 11th by Washington)

9. Griffin Reinhart, D (taken 4th by NY Islanders)

10. Andrey Vasilevski, G (taken 19th by Tampa Bay)

11. Teuvo Teravainen, C (taken 18th by Chicago)

12. Scott Laughton, C (taken 20th by Philadelphia)

13. Tomas Hertl, C (taken 17th by San Jose)

14. Olli Maatta, D (taken 22nd by Pittsburgh)

15. Derrick Pouliot, D (taken 8th by Pittsburgh)

Also, just for the record, here's Dobberhockey:

http://hockey.dobbersports.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=106:top-215-prospects&catid=26:rankings

28. Beau Bennett

88. Scott Laughton

[jammer2]

@radoran ahhh, nice finds rad. So we have .....

Hockey News Scott #35 Beau not on the list at all....

McKeens Scott #87 and Beau #69 (dropping from last years #40)

Dobber Scott #88 and Beau #28

Some pretty big discrepancies there.....should be interesting to see who is right in a few years, huh?

[Polaris922]

@jammer2

I'll take that bet

@flyercanuck

Like I said I'm not sure if Laughton will take off or not. I see Bennett competing fairly often in the NHL and like the scoring touch I see. I think he's being groomed as a shooting winger. Laughton I see developing his defense and physicality as his strong points. I don't watch point production in the AHL as closely because it doesn't tell me the story (line mates, winning team, etc...). A lot of players have had success in the A but never transitioned. I'm evaluating purely on the skills I've seen displayed during their games I've seen or videos and reading reports. I can't watch OHL games so I grant you my observations of Laughton are limited. I saw a you g kid use his speed and physicality in a very limited role with your Flyers early this year, but nothing that stood out in his puck carrying, passing or shot. At this point I don't remember specifics, just my impression of him. I was only watching because of the discussions here.

I anticipate him as a gritty defensive center with the heart to maybe impress and play captain. But I'll keep watching what I can and follow along with you guys to see if he does develop an offensive talent. Maybe he's on his way to becoming a power forward type and developing slowly in touch and shot? I dunno, but I'll watch and see.

My point remains I just don't see him being trade focus for the number one or two pick.

[Polaris922]

Whoa there Tex. Didn't you know that the Flyers were going to convert their 3.4% chance into the 1st overall?

Seriously though, the last place team hasn't been getting the 1st overall that much over the years. And this year has even lower odds.

I'm sure they will! Lol. I meant to infer they're first in overall CHANCE for first overall, meaning worst they can do is #2. Either way it's looking MacKinnin or Drouin. Would you trade a shot at them for #9 and Laughton?

[radoran]

@radoran ahhh, nice finds rad. So we have .....

Hockey News Scott #35 Beau not on the list at all....

McKeens Scott #87 and Beau #69 (dropping from last years #40)

Dobber Scott #88 and Beau #28

Some pretty big discrepancies there.....should be interesting to see who is right in a few years, huh?

That's really the only way to find out.

I'm still taking Maata with that pick, tho

[brelic]

I'm sure they will! Lol. I meant to infer they're first in overall CHANCE for first overall, meaning worst they can do is #2. Either way it's looking MacKinnin or Drouin. Would you trade a shot at them for #9 and Laughton?

I would drive Laughton to Florida myself

[jammer2]

@radoran Here is another top 100 list I found, it has Scott at #30 and Beau Bennett no where to be found....not even in the honourable mentions after the top 100, found that rather odd. This list has Malcom Subban WAY to low also.

http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1305

Edited April 23, 2013 by jammer2

[radoran]

@radoran Here is another top 100 list I found, it has Scott at #30 and Beau Bennett no where to be found....not even in the honourable mentions after the top 100, found that rather odd. This list has Malcom Subban WAY to low also.

http://www.hockeypro...?articleid=1305

I was wondering if it has to do with number of NHL games played and/or actually being on an NHL roster? (EDIT: Just noticed this link was from 2012)

Doesn't make sense for Bennett to be highly rated on some, and nonexistant on others. And be drafted 20 overall.

Could be they just "aren't rating" him. Admittedly spitballing - the first I've ever heard of Bennett was earlier in this thread

He played 24 games for the Pens this season and was apparently optioned back to Wilkes Barre at the end of March (maybe when Iginla arrived?)

[jammer2]

I was wondering about the elegibility question also, but as you can see, this is Beau's first year playing pro hockey, so there is no reason to disclude him from any of these lists. They were complied before the year started, but not sure when Dobbers list came out. Anyways, some huge differences here.

Edit, Hockey News list is new from last month, but you have to play 50 games to graduate off their list.

http://www.hockeydb.....php?pid=127795

Edited April 23, 2013 by jammer2

[flyercanuck]

@Polaris922

No offence but if your views on Laughtons development include the word power forward (he's about 6' and 175 lbs) I'm going to call your scouting report drunk. Again it's pretty hard for you to evaluate an 18 year old kid in 5 games in the NHL. His junior team has him qbing the pp. Does that sound like a guy who's sole purpose is defence?

I don't see the #1 pick being traded for anything less than severe overpayment, which I want no part of.

[King Knut]

It's not worth Coots and an 8th overall that's for damn sure.

People are acting like Jones and Nurse are guaranteed amazing D men destined to be top 4 as rookies and most likely top 2 in a year after that. Might happen... but not very likely.

I think all the teams that are in a position to draft the two of them are probably going to just draft whichever one is available when they draft. In addition, don't you almost have to go for a trade with whoever gets #1 or #2? Imagine you trade your #8 and Couturier for the #3 overall pick and Jones and Nurse go 1 -2? WTF? Not worth the risk.

If there was also a glut of awesome forwards to speak of, then you could trade up under the assumption that a forward the other team wants will still be available at #8... but good D men in a draft is such a fluke that most teams will probably jump at the opportunity to get one. Especially the likes of Florida, Colorado and Tampa, who will be battling it out for the top 3 picks most likely. Florida and Colorado have awful goal differentials, but Tampa's is actually pretty decent. They score a lot of goals and so far they've only allowed one more on the season than they've gotten, which suggests that FLA and CO are far more likely to go for such a deal in order to get more fire power.

I still say trying to package our #1 to LA for Bernier is the way to go -so we're not putting all our eggs in the Mason basket next year.

In addition, there are more than a few UFA top 4 D men up this summer... but not top 2 material, so you won't have to pay Pronger or Weber numbers for them, and really I think we'll be great with that.

That said, if Fla, Colorado, or any of the other really crappy teams out there would give up a Nurse or Jones pick for something we can stand to part with, I say go for it.

Does that pick plus, say, Couturier get them enough to move up to take a Nurse, assuming Jones at #1?

[mojo1917]

I still say trying to package our #1 to LA for Bernier is the way to go -so we're not putting all our eggs in the Mason basket next year.

i'm not so sure we need to send LA our #1 for him. they are going to have to spend some money to keep their roster full of quality players , I think he can be had for less than our first round pick, because i don't think they can afford to sign him to a deal he'd like and keep their free agents around... i get what you're saying about Mason, but think the #1 for Bernier is too steep a price.

[flyercanuck]

@King Knut

Our #1 for Bernier? Uh, no.

[JackStraw]

That said, if Fla, Colorado, or any of the other really crappy teams out there would give up a Nurse or Jones pick for something we can stand to part with, I say go for it.

Nurse maybe, if the Flyers pick is around #8. Still I think it would be costly. No way the Flyers can trade up to get Jones. Whoever gets the #1 might be willing to pass on Jones, but they won't be willing to pass on Jones AND MacKinnon AND Drouin.

[toughfighter83]

why not laughton and a first for seth jones, we have courturier and cousins, we have to part with one of our centers for a d-man there's too many centermen on this team, this team needs a d-man more than a goalie right now besides good goalies can bought for less anyway, i dont want an overpayment for goalie anyway, it's too risky.

Nurse maybe, if the Flyers pick is around #8. Still I think it would be costly. No way the Flyers can trade up to get Jones. Whoever gets the #1 might be willing to pass on Jones, but they won't be willing to pass on Jones AND MacKinnon AND Drouin.

it's too risky to think that, someone in the top 5 will want jones, i doubt that jones will fall in the flyers lap.

Edited April 24, 2013 by toughfighter83

[JackStraw]

why not laughton and a first for seth jones

Because that's not even close to enough.

[toughfighter83]

Because that's not even close to enough.

then what will it take?

[King Knut]

I think it depends on where we fall in the lottery.

I've been saying the same thing about Bernier's new contract coming at a time when Quick's new contract kicks into high gear (he'll be an dead albatross for that team's cap for a while as he makes more than Bryz and his contract goes on forever... but hopefully for them he'll keep playing well and earn it).

They can afford to keep Bernier for another year or two, and you can be sure that Homer won't pull an offer sheet shenanigan with his boys, Lomdardi and Hextall. BUT I could see his relationship with them helping his cause... but not enough that they're just going to GIVE him away.

Maybe you're right. Maybe it doesn't take a first, but it will take something. Would you rather ship our #8 pick or Laughton? I can't say at this point.

What about a 2nd and Mezaros? I don't want Mezo around anymore. I like him, but I'm really sick of not being able to count on him actually being on the ice. Plus maybe he needs a change of scenery.

What's more, LA also has 2 top 4 D men going UFA this year and the chances of any team resigning 2 top 4 D men in the same year seem very unlikely to me.

but think the #1 for Bernier is too steep a price.

[Jmdodgesrt4]

I guess the better question is.... What would you take from the flyers for a top notch blue chip prospect on d?