Is Read the odd man out?

[brelic]

I was reading a few articles this morning talking about line combinations now that we have Vinny, and something struck me: Read is the odd man out.

Consider that he no longer fits in the top 6:

Hartnell/Giroux/Voracek

Schenn/Lecavalier/Simmonds

There's no way Read displaces any of the wingers unless there's an injury. You can argue that he might be better or more useful than at least one of those, but realistically, that's our top 6.

So that means he's on the bottom 6. No problem, right?

Well, I think there is a problem. He will definitely earn a contract in the $3.5M-4.5M range based on comparables.

In two NHL seasons, we can say that Read is a 47-48 pt player who scores 20+ goals (24 as a rookie, 11 last year projects to 21-22).

Tyler Bozak is one good comparison (though I don't know much about his all-around game... anyone?). They are both undrafted, both went the college route, and both joined the NHL in their mid-20s.

He's 27, is a 47-48 pt player over the last 2 seasons, and has never reached 20 goals (18 two years ago, 12 last season in 4 more games than Read)

They are negotiating right around the $5M mark:

According to a report from TSN, the most recent counter-offer from the Bozak camp as of mid-day Tuesday was an eight-year deal averaging less than $5 million per year. It has been widely speculated that Bozak has been seeking at least a $5 million salary, if not more.

I think his contract will be a benchmark for Read. And it looks like it will be somewhere between $4.5-$5M... FOR EIGHT YEARS.

The eight-year length has been ridiculed around the Twitterverse because, let's face it, Bozak is not the kind of player you give eight years (Are you listening, Homer??). That's for guys like Giroux, Stamkos, Crosby. The face of the franchise.

Anyway, I think a forward looking GM will be moving Read during this season to get maximum value... maybe even before the season starts. I love the guy, I want him to stay, and think it's only a matter of a few years before he becomes top 6 by virtue of Hartnell's value dropping to 3rd line status, but can you afford to have a $5M player on the 3rd line right now?

Does anyone else see it differently? It just seems like the writing is on the wall and Read is the odd-man out.

I bet he gets moved with Coburn for draft picks and a defensive prospect.

[DaGreatGazoo]

I bet he gets moved with Coburn for draft picks and a defensive prospect.

I hope Mez is the one getting moved, but yeah, I think this comment is pretty accurate.

[doom88]

Why not three scoring lines?

Gagne Couturier Read

Leaving the checking as a fourth:

Rosehill Talbot Rinaldo

[brelic]

Why not three scoring lines?

Gagne Couturier Read

Leaving the checking as a fourth:

Rosehill Talbot Rinaldo

I would be happy with that.. I would actually prefer McGinn on the 4th, but that's just details.

I guess the question is whether or not we can afford a 3rd liner making $4-5M. And Hartnell himself will be a 3rd liner in a few years making $4.75M. I would hope someone like Cousins, Straka, etc come in and steal a top 6 spot.

Another area where big stupid contracts block the progress of our young guys.

[doom88]

That 3rd line combined won't make that much this season. Why worry about the sky falling? Read won't get that much the following season, and if Homer is worried he might, he will be traded either at the deadline or at the draft.

Hartnell should be okay if healthy, and you're worrying about several years out at that point.

Why not just be a fan and enjoy the team? People gripe about Homer (plan, contracts, keeping Lavy, etc) all the time, but he does position the team to win. The fact of the matter is, the healthiest good team usually gets the Cup. There is no magic formula. None. Too much luck involved with a bounce this way, puck rolling off the tape, a broken wrist, and so on.

[ctid]

I agree...read will not be re-signed, unfortunately. He won't displace any of the top 6 guys and his new salary will be "too much" for a 3rd line depth scoring role. He is absolutely awesome while in the cost-efficient cap hit role, but as soon as he gets a higher contract he will unfortunately become a luxury we can't afford.

[brelic]

That 3rd line combined won't make that much this season. Why worry about the sky falling? Read won't get that much the following season, and if Homer is worried he might, he will be traded either at the deadline or at the draft.

Hartnell should be okay if healthy, and you're worrying about several years out at that point.

Why not just be a fan and enjoy the team? People gripe about Homer (plan, contracts, keeping Lavy, etc) all the time, but he does position the team to win. The fact of the matter is, the healthiest good team usually gets the Cup. There is no magic formula. None. Too much luck involved with a bounce this way, puck rolling off the tape, a broken wrist, and so on.

I'm not worrying about the sky falling (that was the Bryz signing.. I hated it from day one). I'm just wondering if Read is the odd man out and I think he will be.

So if they come to the same conclusion, it makes more sense to move him now, while his value is highest, no? Now, Read, Coburn, and a sweetener for Kane and Bogosian would be pretty awesome.

But the truth is, we can't afford Kane and Bogo now that we have Vinny.

As for just being a fan and enjoying the team, I don't think I can do that anymore Being a fan was bliss for me before social media, before the internet, before Center Ice. I got very little direct information relating to the Flyers. No rumours, no media stories. I'd just see the occasional game, and follow the boxscores, and hope they made the playoffs where I got to see all the games.

Now? Information overload!!

[doom88]

@brelic

Understood. Sometimes it seems like people just want to be upset about something. I just don't get it.

I'd keep Read and leverage the production until the last second possible.

[Jmdodgesrt4]

There is plenty of cap space available to resign read next year. They do not have to move him.

[AbelMorpheus]

I really hope Matt Read isn't the odd man out. I'm still not convinced that Brayden Schenn is everything he's cracked up to be. Other than physicality, I like what Read brings to the table more than Schenn.

[OccamsRazor]

I was reading a few articles this morning talking about line combinations now that we have Vinny, and something struck me: Read is the odd man out.

Consider that he no longer fits in the top 6:

Hartnell/Giroux/Voracek

Schenn/Lecavalier/Simmonds

There's no way Read displaces any of the wingers unless there's an injury. You can argue that he might be better or more useful than at least one of those, but realistically, that's our top 6.

So that means he's on the bottom 6. No problem, right?

Well, I think there is a problem. He will definitely earn a contract in the $3.5M-4.5M range based on comparables.

In two NHL seasons, we can say that Read is a 47-48 pt player who scores 20+ goals (24 as a rookie, 11 last year projects to 21-22).

Tyler Bozak is one good comparison (though I don't know much about his all-around game... anyone?). They are both undrafted, both went the college route, and both joined the NHL in their mid-20s.

He's 27, is a 47-48 pt player over the last 2 seasons, and has never reached 20 goals (18 two years ago, 12 last season in 4 more games than Read)

They are negotiating right around the $5M mark:

I think his contract will be a benchmark for Read. And it looks like it will be somewhere between $4.5-$5M... FOR EIGHT YEARS.

The eight-year length has been ridiculed around the Twitterverse because, let's face it, Bozak is not the kind of player you give eight years (Are you listening, Homer??). That's for guys like Giroux, Stamkos, Crosby. The face of the franchise.

Anyway, I think a forward looking GM will be moving Read during this season to get maximum value... maybe even before the season starts. I love the guy, I want him to stay, and think it's only a matter of a few years before he becomes top 6 by virtue of Hartnell's value dropping to 3rd line status, but can you afford to have a $5M player on the 3rd line right now?

Does anyone else see it differently? It just seems like the writing is on the wall and Read is the odd-man out.

I bet he gets moved with Coburn for draft picks and a defensive prospect.

FORWARDS

Scott Hartnell ($4.750m) / Claude Giroux ($3.750m) / Jakub Voracek ($4.250m)

Brayden Schenn ($3.110m) / Vincent Lecavalier ($4.500m) / Wayne Simmonds ($3.975m)

Simon Gagne ($2.250m) / Sean Couturier ($1.375m) / Matt Read ($0.900m)

Maxime Talbot ($1.750m) / Scott Laughton ($1.107m) / Zac Rinaldo ($0.750m)

Eric Wellwood ($0.594m) /

Jay Rosehill ($0.675m) /

DEFENSEMEN

Kimmo Timonen ($6.000m) / Luke Schenn ($3.600m)

Mark Streit ($5.250m) / Braydon Coburn ($4.500m)

Nicklas Grossmann ($3.500m) / Erik Gustafsson ($0.851m)

Marc-Andre Bourdon ($0.613m) /

GOALTENDERS

Steve Mason ($1.500m)

Jose Theodore/Khudobin ($1.500m)

OTHER

Buyout: Oskars Bartulis ($0.100m)

------

CAPGEEK.COM TOTALS (follow @capgeek on Twitter)

(these totals are compiled with the bonus cushion)

SALARY CAP: $64,300,000; CAP PAYROLL: $61,331,594; BONUSES: $2,800,000

CAP SPACE (23-man roster): $5,768,406

Here is my quick lineup...me likey...not worried about two or three years from now...just next year...one year at a time guys...not to bad i think!!!!!!!

Any lineup devoid of the Bryzaster is a WINNER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Edited July 4, 2013 by OccamsRazor

[DaGreatGazoo]

Read won't get that much the following season

I politely disagree...Outside of Hartnell's year with Jagr, Read slots right into that pay range based on production. He could get anywhere from $3 to 4.5 millon/season, from the right team. Crazy money, I agree, but 40-50 points a season and can play PK, PP and even strength.

Someone will overpay for him..as is always the case in the NHL these days.

Edited July 4, 2013 by DaGreatGazoo

[canoli]

I agree...read will not be re-signed, unfortunately. He won't displace any of the top 6 guys and his new salary will be "too much" for a 3rd line depth scoring role. He is absolutely awesome while in the cost-efficient cap hit role, but as soon as he gets a higher contract he will unfortunately become a luxury we can't afford.

This was Brel's point too but I'm not so sure it works out this way. If Read does skate with the Flyers this season you're right, it's likely on a 3rd line. So project out to next summer...rule out real unlikely scenarios like Read wins the Conn Smythe and the Flyers are Cup champions...or he has a 90-point year...rule all that stuff out and then think: What will his services command? A 3rd-line winger, good all-around player but not a stand-out, just a good, solid player. Say he puts up 50 points. Is he really going to get $4.5mil a year based on numbers like that? Or production anywhere in that ballpark? Probably not, prob he's looking at a decent raise but nothing earth-shattering, nothing the Flyers couldn't handle next summer.

The question is does he make it as a Flyer till next summer? Does he make it thru this summer? I hope so because I really like him. He could really make a 3rd line come alive as a scoring line.

[toughfighter83]

why cant gagne take over first line duties? he still has the speed and he's a good passer. if hartnell cant skate well he should be on the third line with courts, he's been terrible on the first and second lines put him on the third to help courts.

[brelic]

This was Brel's point too but I'm not so sure it works out this way. If Read does skate with the Flyers this season you're right, it's likely on a 3rd line. So project out to next summer...rule out real unlikely scenarios like Read wins the Conn Smythe and the Flyers are Cup champions...or he has a 90-point year...rule all that stuff out and then think: What will his services command? A 3rd-line winger, good all-around player but not a stand-out, just a good, solid player. Say he puts up 50 points. Is he really going to get $4.5mil a year based on numbers like that? Or production anywhere in that ballpark? Probably not, prob he's looking at a decent raise but nothing earth-shattering, nothing the Flyers couldn't handle next summer.

The question is does he make it as a Flyer till next summer? Does he make it thru this summer? I hope so because I really like him. He could really make a 3rd line come alive as a scoring line.

That's exactly it, canoli. He's effectively blocked from the top 6 for the foreseeable future. So, given that he can put up 45-50 points, and that he is still effective when moved around the lineup, plays in important situations (PP, PK, late in the game, etc), and that's easily a $3.5-4.5M player in today's market. Bozak will be one benchmark for his contract.

If he wants a bigger role, he may have to go elsewhere. And he may not really be a top 6 player... but if he thinks he is being blocked from that opportunity, and if his agent convinces him that there's a big UFA payday in his future, then trading him for assets makes sense. He could be a deadline move if Homer gets the feeling that it will be hard to resign him.

See Leino, Ville.

[Bakanekimiwa]

i do happen to think Read is the odd man out here. that's not to say that he's not a valuable winger. it's just that his impending UFA status next year and assumed raise are not within the Flyer's plans... or at least it would seem. he's a solid winger that could bring some good value in return in a trade, so I think that's what makes his departure likely.

I'd like to hang on to him and see where we are next spring before I part ways because I think he could bring more in a trade deadline deal, but I can see the merit to swinging him this off-season to sweeten a deal for a solid D or G. We don't need to dump him for cap space this summer if we can deal one of Mez and/or Coby.

We have Gagne waiting in the wings(no pun intended).. who I think will be a solid player for us this year if we can afford him. Lock him down to a 2 year deal on the cheap and i think he could possibly produce equal to that of Read.

[jammer2]

@Bakanekimiwa If he breaks out for 30+ goals like I think he will, the asking price will be a lot higher than if he was traded now. Personally, I think they find a way to squeeze him in. He has tremendous speed, prob 3rd to Giroux and Welly in the org, and in the top 10% of all NHL skaters. That kinda speed combined with smarts does not grow on trees. When you find a player like that, you hold on to him. He's one of those guys who makes the Flyers hard to play against, that means a lot to me. I keep him if at all possible. The cap has never held us back from doing things that Homer really wants to accomplish, whether it's an adviseable move or not. For this reason, I believe he stays a Flyers. If he is dealt as a throw in it's a monumental mistake.

[Lunatic]

@Bakanekimiwa If he breaks out for 30+ goals like I think he will, the asking price will be a lot higher than if he was traded now. Personally, I think they find a way to squeeze him in. He has tremendous speed, prob 3rd to Giroux and Welly in the org, and in the top 10% of all NHL skaters. That kinda speed combined with smarts does not grow on trees. When you find a player like that, you hold on to him. He's one of those guys who makes the Flyers hard to play against, that means a lot to me. I keep him if at all possible. The cap has never held us back from doing things that Homer really wants to accomplish, whether it's an adviseable move or not. For this reason, I believe he stays a Flyers. If he is dealt as a throw in it's a monumental mistake.

Jammer, I couldn't agree with you more. He has 30+ potential, kills penalties, can play on the power-play, and is a top 6 type forward. Where are the Flyers going to find another player with his package of skills? He is a keeper. I will be royally pissed if they just give/trade him away, without seeing what he can do this coming season!

[Vincent05]

I would like to see him here til the deadline but if Homer is getting Kane/Ryan as rumored he is in talks, I can see Read being part of a package.

[jammer2]

@Vincent05 When it's all said and done, I think Read will become better than Ryan over the long haul. So, I wouldn't move him to accomodate a Ryan deal....it's a step backwards. The scoring is close now, and Read plays on the 3rd line and gets no top pp minutes....unllike Ryan who plays on the top pp with Perry and Getzlaf. If Read played with those stars, his numbers would dwarf Ryan's....just say'in.

Edited July 4, 2013 by jammer2

[Vincent05]

@jammer2

I agree with you but you now Homer, if he has a hard one for someone he gives away more then he has to. The GM of other teams will ask for Read and Homer will cave in.

[jammer2]

@Vincent05 Probably right.....I hate homer.

[Vincent05]

Honestly, I would love to see Homer try and move Hartnell to get out of his 6 year contract. I would then give Read his salary for 4 years. I like Hartnell but seems like he's on a decline to me. Read can take his spot on the 2nd line, play on the PP and PK. Read just seems more valuable to me plus we get out of another NMC contract.

[canoli]

. I like Hartnell but seems like he's on a decline to me. Read can take his spot on the 2nd line, play on the PP and PK.

I don't know...I don't think they play at all the same type of game so I don't see Read filling Hartnell's skates. But it's quite possible you're right that Harts is on a decline. The weird thing is though, you could be exactly wrong. With Hartnell you just never know. He has this amazing season and everybody says "hell my grandmother could put up 35 skating with Jagr and Giroux" and the next season seems to bear that out when Hartnell appears as lost as everyone else in the O&B.

With that in mind I say wait one more year for any Hartnell trade talk. Because that "seems" is important. This past season is almost impossible to evaluate from a player contribution standpoint. When Hartnell's on he is a mother- to play against. He does everything opposing players hate and he can score and pass, knock guys over without hardly trying... he hustles on the backcheck and once setup in the O zone he finds little seams down low where only Marty St. Louis can. (!) Seriously. This guy should not be under-valued and I don't mean money because obviously he's got a healthy paycheck already. But contribution-wise I think he's one of the Flyers' stars.

[jammer2]

@canoli I don't think Hartnell is as good as the 36 goal year, but nearly as bad as this past horrid season. He had the injury, didn't look in skating shape for big chunks of the season. I'd give him a bit of a pass on the short abberation of a year. I think his true value lies somwhere inbetween the two extremes. If he is good on the forecheck, plays with heart and determination....i'm ok with 25 goals from him. Over time, the league wide spending will catch up to his contract....it will look more and more respectable as time goes on...as long as he does the 3 things I mentioned.

Overall, I like Harts cause in general, he makes the Flyers harder to play against. Scott is the type of guy that can hurt opposing d-men over the course of a 7 game series, really wear them down...those types of thing don't show up on the scoresheet, that's why Harts is paid for the intangibles as well as the goals, but people don't factor in the importance of the intangibles...they see XX amount of goals and make thier call based on pure production....which is a bad way to rate a guy like Scott, there is much more to his game that goals and assists.