mojo1917 Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 I suppose his +/- represents a certain luck factor for him. Or... I could be wrong. I remember one B Schenn rush that turned into an odd man rush goal against because MDV shot the puck right into the forwards shin pads and it was off to the races...that sort of thing seems to happen to our guys... a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radoran Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 How so? Why does he have to compromise his long term vision just 15 games into a season with his coach? He's been active over the past year since he took over, slowly reshaping the roster, getting rid of the deadweight he can, and making smart draft picks.It's a multi-year project. It sucks as a fan. He's been dealt a number of cards, and building the team he wants will take time. Well, to jump in where I was referenced: I think this coming off-season is a pretty big one for Hextall. He has to bite the bullet and buy out VLC and jettison Umburglar either for a skate sharpener or another buyout. That would open up around $5M off the top. He has major decisions regarding Gagner & The Schenn Boys - as well as minor ones about Medvedev, Raffl and White. And the possibility of dealing Streit and/or Schultz. This could be a Very Different roster next season and there could actually be the resources to make those changes be effective. And that doesn't involve "compromising his long term vision" - it involves implementing that long term vision. As for the players if they're going to continually talk about how they "played well" in losses and are "No Doubt" a playoff team then, yes, they better put up or shut up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OccamsRazor Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 This could be a Very Different roster next season and there could actually be the resources to make those changes be effective Dear God let it be so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radoran Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Dear God let it be so. If it isn't then when will this "long term vision" start to take shape? A restructuring of a roster begins with a single step... Or something... Ridding the team of the Lecavalier Mess will be a great start, but Hextall could find himself with $12M in cap space without much trouble (Umburglar, VLC buyouts; BSchenn taking Gagner's salary; LSchenn or Medvedev not resigned). And could really "tear down" with two players who simply can't be a part of a "long term vision" - 37-year-old Mark Streit and 33-year-old Nick Schultz. Again, implementing a long term vision rather than "compromising" it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mojo1917 Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 And could really "tear down" with two players who simply can't be a part of a "long term vision" - 37-year-old Mark Streit and 33-year-old Nick Schultz. from your fingers to Hextall's brain...this would be great. both those guys could be useful to a team looking to add depth for a playoff run...they could net an okay return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OccamsRazor Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 If it isn't then when will this "long term vision" start to take shape? A restructuring of a roster begins with a single step... Or something... Ridding the team of the Lecavalier Mess will be a great start, but Hextall could find himself with $12M in cap space without much trouble (Umburglar, VLC buyouts; BSchenn taking Gagner's salary; LSchenn or Medvedev not resigned). And could really "tear down" with two players who simply can't be a part of a "long term vision" - 37-year-old Mark Streit and 33-year-old Nick Schultz. Again, implementing a long term vision rather than "compromising" it. Well it will start with the 1st trade i believe...and i feel it will be Streit maybe 1st out the door...then Luke could be next. Vinny and RJ could be bought out but RJ may be kept. Vinny would represent dead cap space with his buy out but i think that would be better than his 4.5 deadweight. And i'm not good with those buy out numbers what would that look like? Anyone or Rad? And Schultz if he isn't traded at worst could be Mcdudded and you could recoup 925K of his salary. Gagner also could be gone at the deadline and like you said his money given to Brayden if he too ain't traded. Can't move too many who will play next year? So next year something like this... Michael Raffl - Claude Giroux - Jakub VoracekMatt Read - Sean Couturier - Wayne SimmondsRJ Umberger - Scott Laughton - Brayden SchennChris VandeVelde - Pierre-Edouard Bellemare - Ryan White Michael Del Zotto -????MDV - Mark AltRobert Hagg - Radko Gudas Steve MasonMichal Neuvirth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radoran Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Vinny and RJ could be bought out but RJ may be kept. Vinny would represent dead cap space with his buy out but i think that would be better than his 4.5 deadweight.And i'm not good with those buy out numbers what would that look like? Anyone or Rad? Vinny's is $2.9M next year, $2.4M in 17-18 and $900K for 18-19 and 19-20. Umburglar would be $1.6M next year and $1.5M in 17-18. Essentially you recoup one of their contracts for next season - about $4.5M by buying both out with a $3.9M hit in 17-18 (saving $600K over VLC). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radoran Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 So next year something like this...Michael Raffl - Claude Giroux - Jakub VoracekMatt Read - Sean Couturier - Wayne SimmondsRJ Umberger - Scott Laughton - Brayden SchennChris VandeVelde - Pierre-Edouard Bellemare - Ryan WhiteMichael Del Zotto -????MDV - Mark AltRobert Hagg - Radko GudasSteve MasonMichal Neuvirth If Raffl and Read are still slotted in the top six, there ain't much changing in how this team scores (or doesn't)... I can see them bringing up a young propsect for one of the D spots, but not two. I'd think Hextall would go after a competent, relatively young "long term plan" type of defenseman either as FA or trade. Calgary's Kris Russel could be available, for example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OccamsRazor Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Vinny's is $2.9M next year, $2.4M in 17-18 and $900K for 18-19 and 19-20. Umburglar would be $1.6M next year and $1.5M in 17-18. Essentially you recoup one of their contracts for next season - about $4.5M by buying both out with a $3.9M hit in 17-18 (saving $600K over VLC). To me they might as well go ahead and do it and gain two roster spots. Use some of that money to possibly find a true LW for the forward lines maybe G and Jake but if for anything for one of the lines. I'm tired of seeing all these RWer forced into a spot that they aren't familiar with. Just sign a LW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canoli Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Brayden is dead last on the team in Corsi and Fenwick. I like the offense he's bringing this year, but he's essentially a GA liability out there. I don't know who Corwick and Fensi are but BSchenn has played well in the games I've seen. He's skating like he finally "gets it," working hard to win his shifts. His -4 is not really a knock on him imo. All the time getting yanked around the lineup is paying off - he looks good wherever he plays. I'll stick with the eye test. BSchenn is winning shifts and he's got the goals, the points to show for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radoran Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Isn't Fenwick a character in Harry Potter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OccamsRazor Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 If Raffl and Read are still slotted in the top six, there ain't much changing in how this team scores (or doesn't)... I'd like to see them sign a LW and then you could slot Raffl in RJ's spot on the 3rd line. And Hagg and Alt played a lot of games in the AHL together so if they start out at the start of the season they'd be ok on the bottom pair were i meant to put them... Michael Del Zotto -????MDV - Radko GudasRobert Hagg - Mark Alt Then go sign a free agent defenseman to play with MDZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bakanekimiwa Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 I don't know who Corwick and Fensi are but BSchenn has played well in the games I've seen. He's skating like he finally "gets it," working hard to win his shifts. His -4 is not really a knock on him imo. All the time getting yanked around the lineup is paying off - he looks good wherever he plays. I'll stick with the eye test. BSchenn is winning shifts and he's got the goals, the points to show for it. Well, those 2 are guys who figured out that if the other team gets a lot of shots against you and you don't get as many shots against them... then you're probably doing something wrong. In Schenn's case... he's doing something wrong(according to them) more than anyone else on the team. In fact, he's doing something wrong more than only about 50 other players in the league. All of which is to say... if other teams are paying attention to advanced stats(and you'd better believe they are), BSchenn is NOT a valuable commodity they'd like to trade for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canoli Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 I'm sorry but Shots For vs Shots Against is such a lame stat. Maybe to rate a TEAM but an individual player? It's b.s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bakanekimiwa Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 I'm sorry but Shots For vs Shots Against is such a lame stat. Maybe to rate a TEAM but an individual player? It's b.s. b'ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canoli Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 seriously - you seem to understand them Bak - do I have it right? Is it the number of Shots For vs Shots Against? i know i know, google. i'm only interested if somebody explains it to me; i don't wanna do homework to follow hockey! lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radoran Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 "As described by arcticicehockey.com, a Corsi Number is “the shot differential while a player was on the ice. This includes not just goals and shots on goal, but also shots that miss the net, and in some formulations, blocked shots. In other words, it’s the differential in the total number of shots directed at the net.”" It was named after Buffalo's goaltending coach, but the concept originated with former Sabre GM Darcy Regier. For that reason alone, I find it suspect. http://www.secondcityhockey.com/2013/12/4/5167404/nhl-stats-made-simple-part-1-corsi-fenwickHere’s a simple explanation of how each measurement works: Corsi = shots on goal + missed shots + blocked shots Fenwick = shots on goal + missed shots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canoli Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Thanks Rad - so basically I've got it right if I add blocked shots and missed shots. and this is supposed to tell us what? That each skater is responsible to some degree for the number of shots generated by his team and the opposition? Okay...not exactly rocket science and not particularly informative imho. Then again nobody ever said playing hockey was an intellectual pursuit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Podein25 Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Corsi is “the shot differential while a player was on the ice. This includes not just goals and shots on goal, but also shots that miss the net, and in some formulations, blocked shots. In other words, it’s the differential in the total number of shots directed at the net.” So: would a point shot that is 5 feet wide, but deliberately so to get a bounce out the other side, count? I presume so, but you never know. Recording it as a meaningful event requires the person recording it to take note of the intent. I have resisted learning more about these so-called advanced stats, mostly out of laziness, but I now know why: they're not that helpful as far as judging individual player performance. The other night in the Jets game against Minny, Paul Postma had "very good" Fenwick and Corsi numbers, but he was also -2 and was worked over silly by Vanek on one goal in particular. And he is back in the press box for tonight's game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radoran Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Fenwick, Corsi, etc. are additional means of evaluating players. They give some ancillary information and can be used in conjunction with "less advanced" stats like goals, points, +/- to determine a player's overall value. That said, I find both of them to be better team indicators than individual players. You can have a guy who is out on the ice more often against the fourth line, for example, and not face as many shots. If you put him out there against the Top Six he gets roasted (see @Podein25 above). But if your team is getting outshot 50-25 on a consistent basis (for example) that's usually not going to lead to much success. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WordsOfWisdom Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 "As described by arcticicehockey.com, a Corsi Number is “the shot differential while a player was on the ice. This includes not just goals and shots on goal, but also shots that miss the net, and in some formulations, blocked shots. In other words, it’s the differential in the total number of shots directed at the net.”" It was named after Buffalo's goaltending coach, but the concept originated with former Sabre GM Darcy Regier. For that reason alone, I find it suspect. http://www.secondcityhockey.com/2013/12/4/5167404/nhl-stats-made-simple-part-1-corsi-fenwickHere’s a simple explanation of how each measurement works: Corsi = shots on goal + missed shots + blocked shots Fenwick = shots on goal + missed shots Why doesn't someone just do: WordsOfWisdom = shots on goal Missed shots and blocked shots are of no interest to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Podein25 Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 ...blocked shots are of no interest to me As a Leafs fan, having spent the last several years watching your goalies get pounded with shots, I'd think you'd care a little about blocked shots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ruxpin Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Thanks Rad - so basically I've got it right if I add blocked shots and missed shots. and this is supposed to tell us what? That each skater is responsible to some degree for the number of shots generated by his team and the opposition? Okay...not exactly rocket science and not particularly informative imho. Then again nobody ever said playing hockey was an intellectual pursuit! I agree with you for the most part. I guess the other thing it implies is time spent in each end, comparatively. So, if I'm understanding correctly, aside from the straight numbers, if Schenn has the worst corsi on the team it indicates they spend the most time in their own zone when he is on the ice. Now, maybe that's by design but I suspect not. It would be interesting to know where his shifts start out...where the majority of the faceoffs are at the start of his shift (still not rocket science since many times the changes of personnel are on the fly). It's not beat all, end all, for me. But it does paint a picture that when Schenn is on the ice it seems to tilt back toward the Flyer end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brelic Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 It would be interesting to know where his shifts start out...where the majority of the faceoffs are at the start of his shift ( http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=1251 Offensive zone, 30.8%Defensive zone, 32.3%Neutral zone, 36.8% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ruxpin Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=1251 Offensive zone, 30.8%Defensive zone, 32.3%Neutral zone, 36.8% Thank you, brelic. So pretty much even up. So that's not an excuse for being in your end more, statistically, than any of your teammates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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