Radko Gudas - 3 Game Suspension

[BobbyClarkeFan16]

I have to admit when I'm wrong and I was wrong about Radko Gudas. I thought he wasn't going to amount to much. I've been incredibly surprised by his play and just how good of a player he really is. He and Del Zotto have become the shut down combo and the work horses. I only expected Gudas to be a 15 to 17 minute a night guy, but damn, he's been really good here. 

[NRH]

A Flyers fan on these forums admitting they were wrong about a player?

 

Is the world ending?

 

Radko gonna tune you up BCF

[intheslot]

He might get a couple of games for that one hit ...

[FD19372]

Radko "Roadkill" Gudas. He's been really solid and progressed a lot since the start of the season.

[elmatus]

I don't mind Gudas, but he has a couple awful tendencies. The hits can be fun to watch, but he gets out of position to make them way too often. He's also very bad at getting shots to the net. For every one that gets through, I feel like 3-4 end up blocked by someone, mostly due to bad release on his part.

 

He's an intimidating presence though, and he looks like a 70s porn star, so that's obviously great.

[brelic]

The hits can be fun to watch, but he gets out of position to make them way too often.

 

The one in Ottawa on Nov 21 was classic, right? He's still drifting at the Ottawa blueline for a hip check. Meanwhile, two Ottawa guys are in *our* end and get a scoring chance. Gudas = controller disconnected sometimes

 

 

 

He's also very bad at getting shots to the net. For every one that gets through, I feel like 3-4 end up blocked by someone, mostly due to bad release on his part.

 

Yes, very true. He's a lot like Luke Schenn in that regard - except he hasn't found the magical broken play along the half boards, random shot turns into a goal. That's Luke's sweet spot

 

But overall, I do like Gudas. 

[Bakanekimiwa]

I think Gudas is a great role player for the Flyers. I don't wanna see him on the top line, but he works very well as a piece to a solid D corp. We just need the other pieces in place first and he'll be our Kronwall-esque presence. 

[King Knut]

I have to admit when I'm wrong and I was wrong about Radko Gudas. I thought he wasn't going to amount to much. I've been incredibly surprised by his play and just how good of a player he really is. He and Del Zotto have become the shut down combo and the work horses. I only expected Gudas to be a 15 to 17 minute a night guy, but damn, he's been really good here. 

 

 

I'm okay with him receiving some discipline for the elbow last night, but there needs to start being some parity and intelligence in this league concerning these things.  

 

If the goal is to protect players, then they have to crack down on all dangerous hits that hurt players.  It's as simple as that.  Radko came up with the elbow and that's not okay so he needs to get the message.  

 

That said, how is it any more okay to hit Schultz or Raffl or Couturier the way they were all hit this year.  They were all (probably) concussed as a result of dangerous and unnecessarily heavy hits.  Most of them lost time and all of them probably should have lost time (still don't think Raffl should have played).  

 

That this league is still trying to kill fighting as dangerous to players, but they're still doing little to nothing to prevent so many of the kind of hits that do far more damage to players' brains than fighting is beyond me. 

 

To say you're trying to prevent brain injuries in general and even though a guy had to sit out 6 games or 20 games or maybe the rest of his career... but the hit was clean just doesn't make sense to me. 

 

There's a way to do this without taking the contact out of the contact sport too.  Personally I'm a bit in the "Coatesey's right, Let 'em Fight" camp, but more than that it's about respecting your fellow player and knowing that you can take a guy out of a play without knocking him unconscious isn't that difficult a thing to do.

[King Knut]

Yes, very true. He's a lot like Luke Schenn in that regard - except he hasn't found the magical broken play along the half boards, random shot turns into a goal. That's Luke's sweet spot

 

He's quick and he's always moving.  He's a little stupid with the penalties and the dangerous hits (Just hit the guy!  on need for the elbow or the cross check!) but I like the way his season has progressed.  He seems able to learn and enact.  

 

But really seeing him zipping all over the place and catching up with plays and just the all out energy he brings and the difficulty that makes for the opposition makes him completely different from L.Schenn IMHO.  

[JR Ewing]

He's quick and he's always moving.  He's a little stupid with the penalties and the dangerous hits (Just hit the guy!  on need for the elbow or the cross check!) but I like the way his season has progressed.  He seems able to learn and enact.  

 

But really seeing him zipping all over the place and catching up with plays and just the all out energy he brings and the difficulty that makes for the opposition makes him completely different from L.Schenn IMHO.  

 

Here is where we always get to the most interesting thing to me, where we deal with perception: when Luke Schenn is on the ice, the Flyers give up fewer Scoring Chances per 60 minutes. They also give up fewer High Danger Chances per 60, and all while being given tougher Zone Starts than Gudas (43% to 51%). The Flyers give up 25% fewer chances in the home plate area in front of the net (where goals are scored now) with Schenn on the ice, and with Gudas the numbers don't change for the better or worse.

 

Humans are VERY prone to confirmation bias, and I think that it can be pretty easy to confuse perceived effort with effectiveness. If there's a statistical illusion at work here (and it IS possible), it seems to be following Schenn all over the place, and comes into conflict with how Gudas looks. Last year, I came across a great quote from Steven Novella:

 

"When someone looks at me and earnestly says, “I know what I saw,” I am fond of replying, “No you don’t.” You have a distorted and constructed memory of a distorted and constructed perception, both of which are subservient to whatever narrative your brain is operating under."

 

http://theness.com/neurologicablog/index.php/sleep-and-false-memory/

 

I'm not saying that you don't know what you're talking about, and that I do, and it's not like you said Schenn is bad. Just different. I think, though, that one of the reasons looking at data is important is because we all miss a lot of nuance when we watch and human memory is awful and makes up a lot of stuff to fill in the blanks.

 

I'm not trying to challenge you, so much as I'm thinking aloud about how we see players.

[King Knut]

Here is where we always get to the most interesting thing to me, where we deal with perception: when Luke Schenn is on the ice, the Flyers give up fewer Scoring Chances per 60 minutes. They also give up fewer High Danger Chances per 60, and all while being given tougher Zone Starts than Gudas (43% to 51%). The Flyers give up 25% fewer chances in the home plate area in front of the net (where goals are scored now) with Schenn on the ice, and with Gudas the numbers don't change for the better or worse.

 

Humans are VERY prone to confirmation bias, and I think that it can be pretty easy to confuse perceived effort with effectiveness. If there's a statistical illusion at work here (and it IS possible), it seems to be following Schenn all over the place, and comes into conflict with how Gudas looks. Last year, I came across a great quote from Steven Novella:

 

 

 

http://theness.com/neurologicablog/index.php/sleep-and-false-memory/

 

I'm not saying that you don't know what you're talking about, and that I do, and it's not like you said Schenn is bad. Just different. I think, though, that one of the reasons looking at data is important is because we all miss a lot of nuance when we watch and human memory is awful and makes up a lot of stuff to fill in the blanks.

 

I'm not trying to challenge you, so much as I'm thinking aloud about how we see players.

Yeah I don't think you're challenging me per se, mostly because I don't think I was trying to make any better than / worse than qualifications with that statement.  Someone else said Gudas reminded him of Schenn and I disagreed saying they looked different.  I enjoy seeing the energy in Gudas' game because it's fun.  Entertainment value stuff.  It would be more effective play for the team if he could do it more responsibly.

 

That said, I don't think by any stretch he's a better D man than Schenn at this point.  Luke takes the brunt of a lot of hate here and I've probably piled on occasionally, but I don't think he's that bad.   The problem is that expectations were so high for him because we traded the #2 overall pick for him and as I stated elsewhere, JVR ends up as being a pretty bad #2 overall pick.  Which happens frequently, but is none the less disappointing.  

 

I love hearing those analytics.  fascinating stuff!

[aziz]

@JR Ewing

The other side of it is that statistical data by definition misses nuance. In this particular case, while Schenn does a good job of reducing high quality chances against overall, he is one of those dmen that actually manufactures them with some frequency via poor decision-making and/or execution. The bottom line is probably that Schenn is the safer or more effective defensive defenseman, but there is something particularly gnawing about unforced errors that to some extent override statistical generalizations. One guy is only so good, but he won't specifically hurt you with his play... The other guy is better, but he is definitely going to put the puck on an opposing forward's stick in the slot every couple periods. I don't know that the comparison is as simple as the raw data.

[JR Ewing]

@JR Ewing

The other side of it is that statistical data by definition misses nuance. In this particular case, while Schenn does a good job of reducing high quality chances against overall, he is one of those dmen that actually manufactures them with some frequency via poor decision-making and/or execution. The bottom line is probably that Schenn is the safer or more effective defensive defenseman, but there is something particularly gnawing about unforced errors that to some extent override statistical generalizations. One guy is only so good, but he won't specifically hurt you with his play... The other guy is better, but he is definitely going to put the puck on an opposing forward's stick in the slot every couple periods. I don't know that the comparison is as simple as the raw data.

 

I'm with you there. One hundred percent. I don't wish to suggest that the only thing that matters are numbers, because it would be a silly suggestion, and if I were to offer self-criticism is that my own posting history doesn't show that well enough. In my effort to see where perception meets data, I talk more about the data, and it could give others the idea that numbers are all that matter to me. It's not the case. My own preference is to see how eyeballs match up with what's left behind after the game is over. I can try to make allowances in my own perceptions, but sometimes I fall short, and am left with distortion. I try to use numbers to see if we can correct for those, and bring us closer to 20/20.

 

But, here we are... As it so often does, this brings us back to the Big Mistake, and how certain players' gaffes weigh on us more than others. In this case: Luke Schenn has been charged with 2.9 Giveaways per 60 minutes, and Gudas also with 2.9... But, we're talking about how deflating it is when Schenn does it.

[King Knut]

@JR Ewing

The other side of it is that statistical data by definition misses nuance. In this particular case, while Schenn does a good job of reducing high quality chances against overall, he is one of those dmen that actually manufactures them with some frequency via poor decision-making and/or execution. The bottom line is probably that Schenn is the safer or more effective defensive defenseman, but there is something particularly gnawing about unforced errors that to some extent override statistical generalizations. One guy is only so good, but he won't specifically hurt you with his play... The other guy is better, but he is definitely going to put the puck on an opposing forward's stick in the slot every couple periods. I don't know that the comparison is as simple as the raw data.

Just to play devil's advocate...

 

The raw data should actually cover that nuance.  Even if he causes some high quality chances due to miscues, the data suggests that even with those occurrences, there are fewer overall when he's on the ice.  ?

[TropicalFruitGirl26]

He's quick and he's always moving.  He's a little stupid with the penalties and the dangerous hits (Just hit the guy!  on need for the elbow or the cross check!) but I like the way his season has progressed.  He seems able to learn and enact.

 

But really seeing him zipping all over the place and catching up with plays and just the all out energy he brings and the difficulty that makes for the opposition makes him completely different from L.Schenn IMHO.  

 

 

On the bolded...in order to better understand Radko, one has to understand where he has been and what kind of player he was before.

 

I've said many times, the guy was downright maniacal in the AHL (one of the reasons his promotion to the NHL was delayed a bit) and he even still had much of that once he got to the NHL.

But with the proper coaching, exposure to real professionals at the NHL level, and, most importantly, his own will to improve, he HAS become a better player with regards to minimizing the 'stupid plays'.

 

Believe me, during the lockout I watched many AHL games than I ever have via the internet, and Gudas today is a MUCH better player top to bottom than he was then.

Rakdo always has, and likely always will, play with and edge and ON the edge.

 

His challenge will always be not going over the line and not hurting his team in the process.

Given his style of play and how closely the league looks at certain things, there is no guarantee that he won't on occasion do something that may be deemed questionable.

 

But the Flyers have gotten a much more evolved version of Radko Gudas than the Norfolk Admirals/Syracuse Crunch had, and a more polished version than even the Lightning had.

And he is still young and can improve even further as an NHL professional.

 

So I would say his ability to 'learn and enact' as you put it, is alive n well.

[aziz]

Just to play devil's advocate...

The raw data should actually cover that nuance. Even if he causes some high quality chances due to miscues, the data suggests that even with those occurrences, there are fewer overall when he's on the ice. ?

It covers that nuance, insofar as the outcomes are contained in the data. The actual nature of the nuance is lost, though, in the averages.

In this example, both guys are charged with roughly the same number of turnovers per game. That's averaged data. All of the actuals are included, but none are highlighted.

If gudas is going to turn the puck over in the defensive zone, what i've seen is that it will tend to be in the corner or along the halfwall, and will result from a simple lost battle. Schenn, on the other hand, has a bad tendancy to get himself in trouble behind or right next to the net, and too frequently his panic response leaves a loose puck right in the slot.

They turn the puck over at the same rate, the data says, but the how/where/why's -the nuance- is not represented, and that is at least as important than the averages. Really, more important, because how/where/why is actionable by the player and coaching staff.

Schenn's -5 versus gudas's -1 suggest the difference, hint at the nuance, but only just. Stats tell you "what", but eyeballs are required to discover "why".

[King Knut]

If gudas is going to turn the puck over in the defensive zone, what i've seen is that it will tend to be in the corner or along the halfwall, and will result from a simple lost battle. Schenn, on the other hand, has a bad tendancy to get himself in trouble behind or right next to the net, and too frequently his panic response leaves a loose puck right in the slot.

 

I see what you're saying, and there's a valid point to it, but that particular data also address quality scoring changes, so the fact that Gudas turned it over in the corner and Schenn turned it over closer to the net still resulted in more quality scoring changes happening against Gudas.

 

Now the Plus Minus thing is also important and I think a totally underrated stat.   It doesn't tell us much on it's own (unless someone's like a -33 or a +33) but in tandem with other stats I think it's awfully telling.  

 

In the instances of Gudas and Schenn's numbers you mentioned, it could indicate the quality of opponents, it could indicate the amount of special teams time each plays, and it could indicate a bit more of the offensive potential of each player.

 

One thing I observe about Gudas, but have no statistical data to back up is that his play would seem to help generate scoring changes FOR the flyers more than Schenn's would.  (another one of the reasons I observe that they are very dissimilar players which is where a lot of this discussion began).  

 

Not that Gudas is going to score a lot of points or that he has offensive skill, but that his style of play helps break up puck control of the opposition and creates more chaos in the neutral and Offensive zones that the more skilled players CAN capitalize on.

 

That's just an observation and I would be curious to see what the actual numbers suggest.  Of course Gudas is (as mentioned by others) developing rather quickly before our eyes.  He's a significantly more effective player than he was even just at the beginning of the season.  So who knows where it ends and who knows where the crappy numbers end and the good numbers begin and where the reality lies within.

 

Only time will tell.

[AJgoal]

 

His challenge will always be not going over the line and not hurting his team in the process.

Given his style of play and how closely the league looks at certain things, there is no guarantee that he won't on occasion do something that may be deemed questionable.

 

 

I thought we traded Zac to Boston?

[elmatus]

I thought we traded Zac to Boston?

 

Gudas is much more useful a player than Zac ever was. That's not exactly setting the bar very high mind you.

[Lunatic]

Gudas takes out three Senators, to have a hearing with the fickle DPS. http://thehockeywriters.com/radko-gudas-to-have-hearing

[AJgoal]

Gudas is much more useful a player than Zac ever was. That's not exactly setting the bar very high mind you.

 

Absolutely.

[King Knut]

Gudas takes out three Senators, to have a hearing with the fickle DPS. http://thehockeywriters.com/radko-gudas-to-have-hearing

He shouldn't have come up with the forearm like that.

Literally no good reason plus it's technically illegal.

The hits against Coots, Raffle and Schultz were far more dangerous, but much more borderline as far as the rules are concerned. It doesn't make much sense to me. But it's true.

[AJgoal]

Yeah, led with the elbow to the chin. Pretty cut and dry suspension, I would think.

[Lunatic]

I have to agree with you regarding the legality of Gudas's hit. When viewed in  light of the hits you mentioned, Gudas's hit pales. It seems the the DPS is  somewhat legalistic. They are more concerned about the letter of the law than the spirit of the law.

[aziz]

I see what you're saying, and there's a valid point to it, but that particular data also address quality scoring changes, so the fact that Gudas turned it over in the corner and Schenn turned it over closer to the net still resulted in more quality scoring changes happening against Gudas.

 

well, so gudas turns the puck over 3 times in the corner, and they result in quality one-timers from the top of the faceoff dot.  schenn coughs it up only once, but that one time was at the post, and the puck goes skittering into the low slot.  more quality scoring chances against gudas, but i'll take shots from 30 feet all day rather than a bouncing puck 5 feet out.

 

i'm theorizing here, i've not sat down and charted any of this out.  just my impressions.  long and short, i'm never actively worried when gudas has the puck on his stick.  he makes relatively safe and simple plays, and if they aren't going to work out, they'll not work out in a manageable way.  i am very worried when schenn has the puck, especially below the goal line, because i've seen too many adventurous or overly casual plays from him that result in seriously prime scoring chances.  

 

the problem with eyeballs, as has been pointed out, is they are subject to a ton of bias in terms of what we notice and remember...and it is likely my impressions have at least some amount of that to them.  still, eyeballs speak to specifically what is happening at a given moment and capture relevant details that broad numbers can't.  the real trick is to find the middle where the data backs up the eyeballs, and the eyeballs inform the data.