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eleven24

Ghost as Rookie of the Year?

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5 hours ago, eleven24 said:

I'm sure most, if not all has seen hockeysfuture.com's analysis on Gostisbehere...


 

 

I know it's early, really early, but a ceiling of Carlson / Shattenkirk for Gostisbehere?  Yes, these ratings were given before Ghost even played a pro game, but I think he could end up more on the lines of a Subban than a Shattenkirk.

 

 

 

 

Essentially, he's Paul Coffey.  He's a 4th Forward when he's on the ice.  So far he's hinting at being more of a generational sort of talent though with a very specific set of skills, so while I love him to death, but he's still a defensive liability.

 

I'd be far more interested in seeing them try to adapt their game around him rather than forcing him to change his game to suit their system.

This goes to the idea of getting him a pairing partner who can compensate for him a bit.  Keep working with him on his D as they are able, but make the priority building the on ice strat AROUND his skill right now.  Figure out who can play with him to make up for what he's not doing well now and quite frankly probably shouldn't be too heavily forced to try to do better.

 

Ultimately the only question is, who is the Charlie Huddy who makes having a Paul Coffey on your team a more functional proposition? 

 

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7 minutes ago, JagerMeister said:

@JR EwingYa know, the good thing about stats is that they're completely objective. Unlike our perception...

 

Well... They're not the be-all end-all, either. But, they can help us with some things. There's no unifying theory in hockey any more than it's been developed in cosmology, but we're further along using some numbers to help us answer some questions. I think it helped in this case.

 

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1 hour ago, canoli said:

 

very true, his numbers are bound to tail off at some point...then again it's hard to contain a guy who's that quick in his decision-making and his release. That lateral move he uses to open a lane when he's high in the zone has got to be pretty tough to defend against, even when you know it's coming. If you don't bite on the initial shot fake and try to stay with him he can still burn you b/c his lateral movement is so quick - BAM! the shot is away before you can get your stick down.

 

 

He does have that dynamic game changing element doesn't he? Beautiful skater

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1 hour ago, Podein25 said:

 

I do. I think teams will just have better scouting on him, he will be contained better, he won't be allowed the room to get off that big shot (which, by the way, I had no idea, is a bomb) etc etc. He is impressive though, from what I've seen

You see the same thing with great rookie pitchers in baseball.  Their first run through the league, they are lights out.  The 2nd time around, they are more prone to giving up hits because they have been scouted.  The sophomore slump is often times due to this.  

 

So the real challenge of a good rookie is if they can adjust their game to overcome the adjustments that other teams/players will make to contain them.  I have already seen other teams playing Ghost differently, not falling for his shifty moves as much thus getting more shots blocked, but so far he has been good enough to continue making a difference and putting up points.  He just need to continue to develop his game now at the NHL level and continue to grow.  I hope he is able to get a little better defensively   

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23 minutes ago, JR Ewing said:

any more than it's been developed in cosmology

 

I hope you're not suggesting that we don't know the universe is humongous big?

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4 minutes ago, Adamflyers said:

I have already seen other teams playing Ghost differently, not falling for his shifty moves as much thus getting more shots blocked, but so far he has been good enough to continue making a difference and putting up points.  

 

That's a good sign. I haven't seen a large enough sample. It's fun to even be having this conversation about a Flyer D-man!

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1 minute ago, Adamflyers said:

You see the same thing with great rookie pitchers in baseball.  Their first run through the league, they are lights out.  The 2nd time around, they are more prone to giving up hits because they have been scouted.  The sophomore slump is often times due to this.  

 

So the real challenge of a good rookie is if they can adjust their game to overcome the adjustments that other teams/players will make to contain them.  I have already seen other teams playing Ghost differently, not falling for his shifty moves as much thus getting more shots blocked, but so far he has been good enough to continue making a difference and putting up points.  He just need to continue to develop his game now at the NHL level and continue to grow.  I hope he is able to get a little better defensively   

 

There's a difference between a pitcher and a hockey player.  In baseball scouting can and does have an impact on a pitcher or batters performance because the game is slower.  There is time to think about the scouting report between pitches.  Time to think about what pitch a pitcher will throw in a count.  Time to recognize the arm motion and identify the pitch as it's coming in.

 

That's much harder to do in hockey.  I'm sure the scouting report on Ghost reads something like "anticipates the play well. excellent acceleration and lateral movement. due to his physical size he can be muscled off the puck.  Very quick release and hard shot from the point."

 

So what can a player do?  Ok he releases the puck quick and has a hard shot.  Play closer to him and take away that shot.  Play the body on him, take advantage of size mismatches.  Sure, that all works.... BUT... and I'm going to quote a line from Youngblood here

 

"Why doesn't somebody hit the hot dog?"

 

"They can't catch him"

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30 minutes ago, eleven24 said:

 

There's a difference between a pitcher and a hockey player.  In baseball scouting can and does have an impact on a pitcher or batters performance because the game is slower.  There is time to think about the scouting report between pitches.  Time to think about what pitch a pitcher will throw in a count.  Time to recognize the arm motion and identify the pitch as it's coming in.

 

That's much harder to do in hockey.  I'm sure the scouting report on Ghost reads something like "anticipates the play well. excellent acceleration and lateral movement. due to his physical size he can be muscled off the puck.  Very quick release and hard shot from the point."

 

So what can a player do?  Ok he releases the puck quick and has a hard shot.  Play closer to him and take away that shot.  Play the body on him, take advantage of size mismatches.  Sure, that all works.... BUT... and I'm going to quote a line from Youngblood here

 

"Why doesn't somebody hit the hot dog?"

 

"They can't catch him"

Agreed, my comparison isn't apples to apples, but a pitcher is the best example of what Pods was talking about.  Hockey is certainly more difficult to scout a player and adjust, but it can be done.  As you said, its more about learning a players tenancies and using that knowledge to play him better.  

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2 hours ago, Podein25 said:

 

I do. I think teams will just have better scouting on him, he will be contained better, he won't be allowed the room to get off that big shot (which, by the way, I had no idea, is a bomb) etc etc. He is impressive though, from what I've seen

 

Reported and put on ignore. 

 

I see Calder, Harts, Conn Smythes and Norris's's's'

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2 hours ago, eleven24 said:

 

Strictly from a hockey perspective, and removing my orange & black colored glasses, Gostisbehere has that "it" factor.  He is confident in himself without being cocky.  The way he reads the play and instantly reacts with no hesitation.  Confident in his read.  Doesn't second guess.  Defensively, like the 3rd goal the Devils scored last night, you can see where his lack of size/bulk sometimes costs him.  But the decision making and instinct is still often always right.  That's rare to see in any player, let alone a rookie just a few months into his NHL career.

 

The surprise is, nobody really saw this coming.  Sure, people thought Ghost was a good player.  But he was behind a handful of blueline prospects in terms of potential.  Yes, this is a lameass season with not much to be happy about.  But Ghost... damn.  All I keep thinking is that I hope he is STILL behind the handful of prospects who were ahead of him in regards to potential.  

 

If that's the case, then a Cup will certainly be headed down Broad St within a few years.

 

I still think Provorov will be a better all around defenceman. And Sanheim should be in his ballpark offensively. 

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7 minutes ago, flyercanuck said:

Reported and put on ignore. 

 

It took you this long to put me on ignore?! 

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10 minutes ago, flyercanuck said:

\\

1 hour ago, Adamflyers said:

You see the same thing with great rookie pitchers in baseball.  Their first run through the league, they are lights out.  The 2nd time around, they are more prone to giving up hits because they have been scouted.  The sophomore slump is often times due to this.  

 

So the real challenge of a good rookie is if they can adjust their game to overcome the adjustments that other teams/players will make to contain them.  I have already seen other teams playing Ghost differently, not falling for his shifty moves as much thus getting more shots blocked, but so far he has been good enough to continue making a difference and putting up points.  He just need to continue to develop his game now at the NHL level and continue to grow.  I hope he is able to get a little better defensively   

 

The only thing they can do to react to scouting on Ghost is pay more attention to him and give him less room, which will simply leave more room for Giroux and Jake and Wayne.  It's a win win.  The only thing that'll screw him up is trying to change his game or (god forbid) injury.   I look at guys we've had like Pitkanen and Sbisa.  Sbisa was ruined by being sent back to Juniors and being forced to play 40+ minutes a night, and was shipped to Anaheim where he got hurt and they couldn't really develop him at that point.  Pitkanen floundered here trying to play a system that didn't feed his strengths.  He was never a great 2 way D man and that's the life long criticism of him... 

 

But Ghost is already offensively way better than either and the biggest ting that could be done to screw him up is to try to force his game into something it's not.

 

God help me, the Penguins got themselves a whiney, cheap shotting, diving, egotistical, soft defensive liability in Crosby, but the kid could skate like a dream and shoot and pass as well or better than any of them.  They didn't try to turn him into Mark Messier.  They built their game around his strenghts.  God help me it worked for them for a while.  I'd have liked the winning, but would have felt so sick about the methods to get it had I been a Pens fan in 2007-2011, but god help me, they won a lot.

 

Luckily Ghost doesn't appear to be half the pain in the ass or cheap whiney dive artist Crosby was... but the fact that his strengths are SO heavily weighted in one direction and are SOOO apparent so early suggests to me that the team needs to play to those strengths instead of lamenting what he doesn't have and trying to hammer a round peg into a square hole.  The kid's a star and they need to respect his skills and utilize them for a change.  

 

 

 

 

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46 minutes ago, Podein25 said:

 

It took you this long to put me on ignore?! 

 

No sir...you've been on ignore all along. I'm ignoring you right now as we speak.

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31 minutes ago, King Knut said:

.

 

God help me, the Penguins got themselves a whiney, cheap shotting, diving, egotistical, soft defensive liability in Crosby, but the kid could skate like a dream and shoot and pass as well or better than any of them.

 

 

 

 

I wouldn't exactly call him a defensive liability.

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6 minutes ago, flyercanuck said:

 

I wouldn't exactly call him a defensive liability.

 

in 2007?

 

He's always been good on faceoffs, but he ain't Bergeron. 

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3 hours ago, JR Ewing said:

I think he's a marvelous prospect... If I could provide some more perspective on some things going forward.

 

-He's riding an abnormally high Shooting Percentage of 12%, and that just can't be maintained. Elite shooting NHL defensemen are in the 7%-8% range. Paul Coffey shot 12% in the 80s. Nobody is doing that now for very long.

-There is a strong trend for GF% to be closely tied to CF%, and can be a good indication of players for whom everything is going in as well as if they're snake bitten. You can have a year where it's a fair bit higher or lower, but there is a tendency for GF% to eventually return as the at bats pile up. As of today, Gostisbehere's GF% is 57% compared to a CF% of 50%. It's difficult to maintain producing a lot more offense than your possession suggests. This will come closer as his career progresses.

 

This will be an entire separate thing...

 

Playmaking. We can compare playmaking in a simple way: you take the number of goals scored while a player is on the ice and then subtract the goals that he himself scored. This leaves the total number of goals he could possibly have assisted on: Assist Percentage. It levels the playing field from playing in higher or lower scoring leagues and playing on higher or lower scoring teams. For example, here are the top 4 defenseman in total number of assists, ordered by their Assist Percentage:

 

1. Paul Coffey, 42.1% (396-1125, 3095 Totals Goals Scored While on Ice)

2. Ray Bourque, 41.1% (410-1169, 3257 Totals Goals Scored While on Ice)

3. Al MacInnis, 39.4% (340-934, 2709 Totals Goals Scored While on Ice)

4. Larry Murphy, 37.4% (287-929, 2774 Totals Goals Scored While on Ice)

 

Gostisbehere is at 51.2%

 

I don't see how he COULD maintain the pace over the long term. Not without completely eclipsing the best point producing defensemen of all-time. I think he's a terrific prospect, am excited to see him develop, and am not in any way trying to **** on him. But this isn't the level of production we should expect from him going forward.

 

 

 

I think you're wrong....i think he will maintain this pace till his 35th birthday.....then he won't score another point till he retires at 42........:ph34r:

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5 hours ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

 

I think you're wrong....i think he will maintain this pace till his 35th birthday.....then he won't score another point till he retires at 42........:ph34r:

 

Works for me, Flyers will probably trade him when he is 29 and scoring 50 goals a year for another round of Mike Richards and Jeff Carter.

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Don't look now, but he's climbed to 5th overall and still climbing.  He'll never catch the top spot... but 2nd overall is actually totally within reach at this point.  

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20 hours ago, King Knut said:

Don't look now, but he's climbed to 5th overall and still climbing.  He'll never catch the top spot... but 2nd overall is actually totally within reach at this point.  

 

 

If he reaches 2nd in rooking scoring, he's a lock for at least a nomination for ROY.  The simple fact that he's putting up these points on such a horrible offensive team like the Flyers makes it even that much more remarkable.

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the contrast between Ghost and Andrew MacDonald in the offensive zone is startling. 

Ghost without fail makes the pinch and makes it work keeping himself on the right side of the puck. He contests 50/50 pucks and usually wins but has the confidence he can make up for a loss with his skating. In the open ice and defending on transition he gets into the rushing offensive player and effectively takes away time and space.

 

MacDonald starts back-tracking on 50/50 pucks almost immediately.  Is it confidence ? He rarely pinches effectively when he is actually skating forward.   MacDonald doesn't get into guys frames unless they are against the wall, he doesn't take away time and space at the blue line or anywhere that i would consider open ice.  Andrew's game is tentative and Shayne's game is audacious by comparison.

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