Can Vaccine save the NHL season?

[Buffalo Rick]

The Pfizer vaccine is about to start being injected into millions worldwide.  It cant come soon enough.  The Nursing homes are going to get 170, 000 doses out of the 205,000 needed in NY state alone.  Two shots are required about two weeks apart.  The supply is not so much the problem as keeping it frozen.  And I mean frozen more than all of the ice rinks combined in the NHL>  70 below F  I believe?  That is crazy but they re prepared for this. They have the facilities.  So, CAN THIS SAVE THE NHL SEASON?    I say it can because somehow, the NFL has been able to get to week 14 and though most states will not allow fans, they have managed.   Sure some problems, but that was expected.   The NBA has started their pre season.  Baseball got their season in.  Hopefully by March, the vaccine will be out across the world.  The biggest worry is worry itself. About 20% according to studies are not willing to take the vaccine due to lack of trust and the speedy development.  Being type 2 diabetic for 3 years now, I must do it. i wont blink.   Give me the shot.  Hell I already have my first ever Flu shot.  Pnuemonia, Shingles.  So Covid is next.  Lets hope that these people jump on fast.  Our governor, who has done a great job in many ways, but has pissed me off also, says we need to educate those 20%.  One thing that I hope will help is 3 ex presidents, Bush, Clinton and Obama will all take the vaccine publicly to hopefully instill confidence in those 20% that could mess things up for the reset of us.  I do not think their is an option.  Trust the damn science and the FDA.  Put your faith in God and move on.  Drop the puck, and maybe things get more normal as the season progress's?  Maybe the vaccine will have been taken by many by February or March and that might really give the NHL, a shot in the arm?

[OccamsRazor]

1 hour ago, Hockey Junkie said:

70 below F  I believe?  

 

Yes. This is also what has been giving us trouble at work trying to pass all these tests before manufacturing is maintain that temperature due to its high sensitivity to heat.

 

Very challenging time at work with this issue we have been testing and working on this since right after Halloween.

 

And we sion hope to have this figured out on our end.

[WordsOfWisdom]

6 hours ago, Hockey Junkie said:

Can Vaccine save the NHL season?

Maybe the vaccine will have been taken by many by February or March and that might really give the NHL, a shot in the arm?

 

I think it'll save NEXT season (2021-22) but not THIS season.  I think it's too late for this season.   

 

The vaccine is only available in extremely small quantities right now.  It literally just got rolled out a couple days ago in Canada, and only a few thousand doses per province. By the time they get enough vaccine produced to get everyone, it'll take at least a year from now.

 

 

[J0e Th0rnton]

I have a horrible feeling this conversation has the potential to turn political. but it is a valid question given it has to do with the hockey season.

 

My take.

 

Since they have identified the high risk groups who would be vulnerable to Covid complications, I am not sure why life could not go back to normal after prioritizing the high risk folks and frontline medical workers for vaccination.

 

The studies showing that 80% of Hospitalizations among those deficient in Vitamin D, and several other high risk groups being identified indicate we do not need the entire population to take this vaccine to get back to normal.

[pilldoc]

53 minutes ago, J0e Th0rnton said:

I have a horrible feeling this conversation has the potential to turn political.

 

I agree and if it does I will shut the thread down .....

[Buffalo Rick]

1 hour ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

 

I think it'll save NEXT season (2021-22) but not THIS season.  I think it's too late for this season.   

 

The vaccine is only available in extremely small quantities right now.  It literally just got rolled out a couple days ago in Canada, and only a few thousand doses per province. By the time they get enough vaccine produced to get everyone, it'll take at least a year from now.

 

 

I disagree.  I say that they can have everyone vaccinated by summer IF those 20 % come around and have the courage to take it. This is science.  NOT POLITICS

[WordsOfWisdom]

2 hours ago, J0e Th0rnton said:

My take.

 

Since they have identified the high risk groups who would be vulnerable to Covid complications, I am not sure why life could not go back to normal after prioritizing the high risk folks and frontline medical workers for vaccination.

 

I think that's what will happen. They'll get the highest risk people vaccinated first, and the rest of the population will follow suit. 

 

Here's the thing: It's December 13th today.  If the NHL got the go-ahead to proceed, they could start sometime in January. But they're not going to be able to start with 99.9% of the population not being vaccinated. I think you have to get to at least 50% or more people vaccinated before life will return to normal. That's going to take months. Earliest the NHL could get the go-ahead to start is probably June or July. They cannot play games in any regions that are currently under lockdown. The government won't allow it. An NHL game is an "indoor gathering" and that's forbidden (in Canada at least) and not changing anytime soon. 

 

 

[WordsOfWisdom]

1 hour ago, pilldoc said:

 

I agree and if it does I will shut the thread down .....

 

Every time that I plant a seed

He said: "Kill it before it grows"

He said: "Kill it before it grows", I say

 

[WordsOfWisdom]

1 hour ago, Hockey Junkie said:

I disagree.  I say that they can have everyone vaccinated by summer IF those 20 % come around and have the courage to take it. This is science.  NOT POLITICS

 

I think everyone who wants it (say 80% of the population) will be vaccinated by the end of 2021.  That's my prediction.  The other 20% will be the anti-vaccers or people who want to see if side effects occur, etc...  so they'll either never get vaccinated or it'll never matter because they'll be such a small part of the population it'll be irrelevant.   

[pilldoc]

1 hour ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

 

Every time that I plant a seed

He said: "Kill it before it grows"

He said: "Kill it before it grows", I say

 

 

Hopefully, for your sake,  it won't go political 

[pilldoc]

1 hour ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

I think everyone who wants it (say 80% of the population) will be vaccinated by the end of 2021.

 

You are over estimating that number IMO.  I read in an article that in a poll that was taken a few weeks ago, only ~60% of the population will want to receive the Covid-19 vaccine.  I wish that number would be higher, but I suspected the number would be that low consider only roughly ~25% of the US population receives the Flu Vaccine yearly.

 

https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/12/03/intent-to-get-a-covid-19-vaccine-rises-to-60-as-confidence-in-research-and-development-process-increases/

[WordsOfWisdom]

52 minutes ago, pilldoc said:

 

Hopefully, for your sake,  it won't go political 

 

But this is one of the rare covid related threads I didn't create!   

[pilldoc]

Just now, WordsOfWisdom said:

 

But this is one of the rare covid related threads I didn't create!   

 

 

[WordsOfWisdom]

46 minutes ago, pilldoc said:

 

You are over estimating that number IMO.  I read in an article that in a poll that was taken a few weeks ago, only ~60% of the population will want to receive the Covid-19 vaccine.  I wish that number would be higher, but I suspected the number would be that low consider only roughly ~25% of the US population receives the Flu Vaccine yearly.

 

https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/12/03/intent-to-get-a-covid-19-vaccine-rises-to-60-as-confidence-in-research-and-development-process-increases/

 

Well, wishful thinking perhaps. I figure people would be inclined to get a vaccine for something this bad (if nothing else) but then again, you never know. Some people are willing to risk their life over it.   

 

I know I'll get the vaccine, but I'll make sure it's safe first. The first vaccine released may not even be the best one. Other companies are making them too. Whichever is proven most effective and safest will be what I get.  

[pilldoc]

9 minutes ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

 

Well, wishful thinking perhaps. I figure people would be inclined to get a vaccine for something this bad (if nothing else) but then again, you never know. Some people are willing to risk their life over it.   

 

I know I'll get the vaccine, but I'll make sure it's safe first. The first vaccine released may not even be the best one. Other companies are making them too. Whichever is proven most effective and safest will be what I get.  

 

For your reference: (from one of my journals)

 

https://www.drugtopics.com/view/understanding-the-covid-19-vaccine?utm_source=sfmc&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=data-amp-placeholder-1-amp-end&eKey=data-amp-placeholder-2-amp-end

 

 

[pilldoc]

11 minutes ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

The first vaccine released may not even be the best one

 

From experience that is an unrealistic goal.  Both Vaccines that have/will be approved (Pfizer/Moderna) have an ~95% effective rate.  Any vaccine that comes after that will have a hard time surpassing those numbers.  Even if a vaccine was 97-98% effective, that would be statistically insignificant.   

[flyercanuck]

14 hours ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

 

Every time that I plant a seed

He said: "Kill it before it grows"

He said: "Kill it before it grows", I say

 

 

 O'Hare? That you?

[Buffalo Rick]

15 hours ago, pilldoc said:

 

You are over estimating that number IMO.  I read in an article that in a poll that was taken a few weeks ago, only ~60% of the population will want to receive the Covid-19 vaccine.  I wish that number would be higher, but I suspected the number would be that low consider only roughly ~25% of the US population receives the Flu Vaccine yearly.

 

https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/12/03/intent-to-get-a-covid-19-vaccine-rises-to-60-as-confidence-in-research-and-development-process-increases/

I am hearing more like 80% and those at high risk with underlying conditions like myself, are basically having a gun held to their head and have no choice.  I have to do it. And "for my sake" you hope it does not go political?  What is that supposed to mean?  Are you going to send a hit squad after me?  Or simply make the thread disappear?  That would just break my heart.  LOL

[flyerrod]

I will happily let any and all who choose to take the vaccine take it. However, I will take my chances and pass on it. It's bad enough that I have to wear a freakin' mask for work every day.

[Math]

16 hours ago, pilldoc said:

You are over estimating that number IMO.  I read in an article that in a poll that was taken a few weeks ago, only ~60% of the population will want to receive the Covid-19 vaccine.  I wish that number would be higher, but I suspected the number would be that low consider only roughly ~25% of the US population receives the Flu Vaccine yearly.

 

That's what I heard too from the Canadian side. But the good news is, a remaining  of ~30% are not against the vaccine, they basically have some concerns and want to wait if everything's ok. That's the category to target. The last ~10% are die-hard anti-vaxxer and therefore a lost cause, no time and education should be wasted on them considering that the proportion of vaccined people should reach like 80% to have the so-called herd immunity (please challenge me if I'm mistaken).

 

 

20 hours ago, WordsOfWisdom said:

I think it'll save NEXT season (2021-22) but not THIS season.  I think it's too late for this season.   

 

The vaccine is only available in extremely small quantities right now.  It literally just got rolled out a couple days ago in Canada, and only a few thousand doses per province. By the time they get enough vaccine produced to get everyone, it'll take at least a year from now.

 

I concur. 2020-2021 will be a wild ride running like headless chickens. 2021-2022 should be back to normality. But don't forget that more vaccines coming from other firms will be available too in the future. In Canada, they target September 2021 for a global vaccination (i.e. people that are dead-last in the priority order can get their shot) and that's more of a conservative estimation.

[WordsOfWisdom]

4 hours ago, flyercanuck said:

 

 O'Hare? That you?

 

 

 

Who is O'Hare?   

[mojo1917]

@pilldoc

@J0e Th0rnton

 

Since people with a certain ideological leanings have made public health political there is really no way to discuss this topic without politics influencing the discussion.

 

All of my reading has left me with the impression that for the vaccine to have a chance, other measures need to be implemented to reduce the virus' spread.

The best analogy I've read compares it to a fire hose. 

The hose has a better chance of working with a smaller fire burning in less area,  we'll say a ranch house that is not yet burning out of control. If the hose is directed towards a "fully involved" strip mall, the hose will not be as effective and will take much longer, and will result in greater damage to the strip mall because the hose by itself is not enough. 

 

TL;DR For the roll out to be effective other measures must be in place. 

 

Here's where it get's political. I'm going to estimate roughly 80% of the deaths and infections we've seen in the US could have been prevented with a coherent national strategy to contain the virus had it been implemented 8 months ago. That is allowing for the slow start to recognize the threat taken into consideration.

Other countries have done a superior job of controlling the virus using WHO recommendations as a template and then modifying them to their area. Today some countries don't have community spread. 

Until the group of leaders that had just ****** quit mitigation efforts is no longer directing the vaccination effort, I don't have much hope for a successful rollout.

Consistently they have made the worst decision at every point on the flow chart to this point. Why would that suddenly change?

I hope the well isn't so thoroughly poisoned that any new efforts that require public buy in to minimize the spread will be largely ignored or resisted. 

There are smart ways to limit spread without mass shutdowns. Wide scale testing, Contact tracing, isolating positive cases,  can focus the effort to those who are at the highest risk. It will take money, and political will, but this government is so broken, I don't feel as though smart ideas have much of a chance. That is thanks to politics, that is thanks to one party routinely dismissing expertise and denying facts. Attempting to remove politics from this discussion in 2020 is a heavier lift than the vaccine rollout. 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 14, 2020 by mojo1917

[mojo1917]

22 hours ago, J0e Th0rnton said:

The studies showing that 80% of Hospitalizations among those deficient in Vitamin D, and several other high risk groups being identified indicate we do not need the entire population to take this vaccine to get back to normal.

This would be aided greatly by a willingness to make testing cheap and easy, like someone's mom,  contact tracing those who've been exposed to COVID positive people and isolation of those who've been exposed. 

Right now tourism business in doing terribly, create COVID isolation wards in the unused rooms of hotels. the government can subsidize this, which would help those companies and the public, OMG win-win.

A thing that is missing, would be a task force of healthcare professionals to monitor those being isolated. Maybe the national guard ? 

It would be expensive, but not nearly as expensive as the 21st century's first economic depression. 

 

There is also an opportunity here to make our society more resilient against these types of public health crisis's in the future. There is technology that can be leveraged (cell phones for instance) there are successful countries that can be benchmarked.  Buildings can be retro fitted with UV ventilation systems, which will boost construction and HVAC trades....there are many paths to boosting the economy as well as creating a resilient society.

I hope we can get our act together so we're not doing this *gestures broadly* every 15 years. America needs to smarten up, this past year should serve as a huge wake-up call.  

 

[J0e Th0rnton]

2 hours ago, flyerrod said:

I will happily let any and all who choose to take the vaccine take it. However, I will take my chances and pass on it. It's bad enough that I have to wear a freakin' mask for work every day.

Im fine with the mask.

 

But a vaccine that we have no 3 to 5 year long term effect data on? Not fine. Im also passing.

 

Im not an anti vax guy by any stretch. Im fine with time tested stuff like measles/mumps/rubella , the flu vaccine.

 

But despite technological advances, you don't have long term effect studies till, well, you study long term effects and rolling it out in this manner isn't.

 

Even MMR vaccines have warning labels to "not give this to pregnant women or anyone who may get pregnant in the next 4 months. Dont give it to anyone with immune conditions" etc etc

 

You won't know who not to give it to until long term effects studies are done.

 

Last time we bypassed safety protocols to rush the swine flu vax, more people died from guierre barre syndrome than the swine flu.

 

Yes that was 1976, but even the newer swine flu vaccine had debilitating problems.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/shaunlintern/these-nhs-staff-were-told-the-swine-flu-vaccine-was-safe

 

I can't even follow news anymore because its so oversaturated with BS and misinformation. No idea what is real and what is theory or supposition. Last I read russian vax takers found out belatedly no drinking alcohol for 6 months, or it could be very bad, etc

 

 

 

 

[Puck_Pun]

Easing of restrictions shouldn't be tied to vaccination rollout but rather case numbers. It's why life is pretty much normal in Australia- there are still crowd size limits but on the whole life is pretty much normal. All this is because case numbers are super low and are quickly quarantined and case tracked to avoid large breakouts- with the only big one being that Victorian cluster that caused a big lockdown.

 

Realistically I see crowds returning to games on a city by city basis. Oh, <city> hasn't had a case in a month? They can have crowds at games again, limit to locals only. Over time things will get back to what they were like before, with the vaccination playing a key role.