What is wrong with the Flyers and how do you fix it?

[Buffalo Rick]

21 minutes ago, RonJeremy said:

I don’t think he can embellish the injury, the team doctors would have all the MRI’s and medical records. Yes Buffalo is the sphincter of NY, you couldn’t pay me to live there.

You couldn't pay me to live in Philly.  Personally, I would not live in Buffalo or Philly.  I live an hour East of Buffalo, but Rochester is completely different from Buffalo.  And they get the worst end of the snow based on their location.  The Kracken are coming and out there its record setting heat right now.  I rather doubt they will come in with the bang Vegas did.  Vegas making it to the finals in their first season is such a rarity in any sport.  I still cant believe it happened.  Back to the topic of the thread, the Flyers have much to consider as do my Sabres.  

[tucson83]

22 hours ago, GratefulFlyers said:

 

This is emblematic of Flyers' fans (and Rangers' fans and Islanders' fans etc). Nobody is ever happy with the last guy but the new guy always sucks even worse! LOL no offense Tucson this rant isn't at you, it just happened I was thinking as I read this thread..."I wish we hadn't bailed on Hextall."

 

I don't have time to scour the web but IIRC when Hextall joined the Flyers as GM they had zero homegrown defenseman on the roster - no Flyers' draft picks who came thru Lehigh playing night in night out. Is that a crime? Maybe not but what team ever won the Cup on borrowed talent alone? You can hire rental snipers and setup guys but your defense/goaltender need to be like the drummer and the bass player.

 

Anyway - my point is I liked Hextall's plan. I didn't feel impatient I felt like finally we got a GM with a plan. He beat himself on the Umberger deal but if I liked pretty much everything else he was doing.

 

Fletcher feels like Homer Redux...it's all Win Now! Go after the Biggest Free Agent and sign him regardless what it takes, money/term/assets in picks and youth. I hope I'm dead wrong about Fletcher. He hasn't had much time so I'm not hounding the guy out of town yet. But this summer will tell us a LOT about his plan...if he has one that is.

 

so you are saying that we have to win a cup with just drafting our own players?

[OccamsRazor]

17 hours ago, ruxpin said:

 

This.  1000x this.  (except the "up his sleeve" part.  You just know it's boogers.)

 

Just to piggyback on some of this.

 

One of a possible packages for Jones from the Blackhawks...

 

Potential trade package: 

 

Forward Philipp Kurashev, defenseman Nicolas Beaudin, left-wing prospect Lukas Reichel, and a first-round pick in 2022

 

 

...now honestly would you want to have to even compete with a package like that for a guy who may not even improve the team's situation?

 

I know I don't want any part of it.

 

For a sure gamechamger sure that is one thing but Jones is not that.

 

 

[RonJeremy]

1 hour ago, Hockey Junkie said:

You couldn't pay me to live in Philly.  Personally, I would not live in Buffalo or Philly.  I live an hour East of Buffalo, but Rochester is completely different from Buffalo.  And they get the worst end of the snow based on their location.  The Kracken are coming and out there its record setting heat right now.  I rather doubt they will come in with the bang Vegas did.  Vegas making it to the finals in their first season is such a rarity in any sport.  I still cant believe it happened.  Back to the topic of the thread, the Flyers have much to consider as do my Sabres.  

I don’t live in Philly, I live in L.I…..

[OccamsRazor]

29 minutes ago, tucson83 said:

 

so you are saying that we have to win a cup with just drafting our own players?

 

There is no one way to do this.

 

There are many ways.

 

But no you don't have to draft those players I think it requires a mix of drafting and adding through free agency.

 

Tampa just won a Cup with one guy they drafted on their blue line Victor Hedman.

 

The rest were traded for or signed.

 

So there is no clear one way of doing it just need the right mix of youth, speed, size, grit and experience and most of all desire to do whatever it takes to help the team win it all.

[OccamsRazor]

@ruxpin

 

The Flyers reported possible trade package for Seth Jones.

 

 

Potential trade package: 

 

Defenseman Philippe Myers, forward prospect Zayde Wisdom, center prospect Morgan Frost and a first-round pick in 2022

 

 

HELL TO THE NAH!!!!

[tucson83]

11 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said:

@ruxpin

 

The Flyers reported possible trade package for Seth Jones.

 

 

Potential trade package: 

 

Defenseman Philippe Myers, forward prospect Zayde Wisdom, center prospect Morgan Frost and a first-round pick in 2022

 

 

HELL TO THE NAH!!!!

hell yeah!!!

[CoachX]

9 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said:

@ruxpin

 

The Flyers reported possible trade package for Seth Jones.

 

 

Potential trade package: 

 

Defenseman Philippe Myers, forward prospect Zayde Wisdom, center prospect Morgan Frost and a first-round pick in 2022

 

 

HELL TO THE NAH!!!!

hmmmm....

 

So two prospects that may or may not be regular players for the Flyers, a draft pick that may or may not be a good pick, and a regular d-man who had a horrible year and may, at best, be a second pair guy?

 

and the argument is Jones is on the decline at 26, becasue he played on a team that may have used him against his strengths, and an analytical report that says he has weakneses. Of course, that report is contradicted by other reports that still have him ranked top 10 to 15 best defensenen in the league

 

I would like to know what other options the Flyers have. If they feel Jones is as good as top 10 or 15, then they should do it. If they have a chance at a lesser d-man, ala Nisky type, that would cost less, I'd rather see that.

 

If they make that trade, my head would not explosde

[ruxpin]

2 hours ago, OccamsRazor said:

@ruxpin

 

The Flyers reported possible trade package for Seth Jones.

 

 

Potential trade package: 

 

Defenseman Philippe Myers, forward prospect Zayde Wisdom, center prospect Morgan Frost and a first-round pick in 2022

 

 

HELL TO THE NAH!!!!

This is a full stop hell no.  If that's the case, what the hell is wrong with Jarmo Kekalainen that he didn't pound accept?

 

Or is Jones' signing an extension the snag?

 

I really hope Jones doesn't want to sign in Philly or doesn't want to sign anywhere and wants to test free agency.   Because that package is brain dead stupid.  Anyone saying otherwise hasn't the foggiest idea what they're talking about.

[ruxpin]

1 hour ago, CoachX said:

If they make that trade, my head would not explosde

Maybe not right away, but once reality sets in, you'll join me in being an ex-Flyer fan.

 

I don't know if you're a Phillies fan and how far you go back if you are, but this is the Von Hayes trade redux.

[CoachX]

2 minutes ago, ruxpin said:

Maybe not right away, but once reality sets in, you'll join me in being an ex-Flyer fan.

 

I don't know if you're a Phillies fan and how far you go back if you are, but this is the Von Hayes trade redux.

Philly born and bred since 1967....i appreciate you bringing up Von Hayes. I hadnt thrown up in my mouth all day

 

what's next, you gonna bring up the time Ryne Sandberg and Larry Bowa were traded for FCKIN Ivan DeJesus? Just kill me now! ...or at least reserve me a spot in the middle of the road so I can lie down next to you

[CoachX]

16 minutes ago, ruxpin said:

 Because that package is brain dead stupid.  Anyone saying otherwise hasn't the foggiest idea what they're talking about.

BTW...I heard that! That you're prolly right is irrelevant

 

should it happen, and I'm proven to me more correct than less, it will just prove I'm a big chip in a bag full of crumbs

[tucson83]

3 hours ago, CoachX said:

hmmmm....

 

So two prospects that may or may not be regular players for the Flyers, a draft pick that may or may not be a good pick, and a regular d-man who had a horrible year and may, at best, be a second pair guy?

 

and the argument is Jones is on the decline at 26, becasue he played on a team that may have used him against his strengths, and an analytical report that says he has weakneses. Of course, that report is contradicted by other reports that still have him ranked top 10 to 15 best defensenen in the league

 

I would like to know what other options the Flyers have. If they feel Jones is as good as top 10 or 15, then they should do it. If they have a chance at a lesser d-man, ala Nisky type, that would cost less, I'd rather see that.

 

If they make that trade, my head would not explosde

you know what i dont care who they get as long as it's not running the same d, no goalie is going to survive behind this d.

[CoachX]

@tucson83

 

I feel the same. Gut this team. The ship is sinking. If they don't do something to improve defense, Hart will get ruined. How long has it been since the Flyers had a true potential number 1 goalie?

 

Everyone wants to save prospects and draft picks. Seems to me finding a goalie has been harder than any other position for the Flyers.

[radoran]

7 hours ago, Hockey Junkie said:

You couldn't pay me to live in Philly.  Personally, I would not live in Buffalo or Philly.  I live an hour East of Buffalo, but Rochester is completely different from Buffalo.  And they get the worst end of the snow based on their location.

 

Funny thing is, neither Buffalo nor Philly would pay either one of you to live there.

 

Rochester routinely gets more snow that Buffalo City (by about 5 inches per year) because there's far more Lake Effect off Ontario than there is off of Erie and Buffalo City's location on the Northeast Corner of the Lake doesn't usually get a ton of Lake Effect unless the wind is just right. When it is just right (*cough* Blizzard of '77 *cough*) they can get slammed.

 

Now, the Southtowns routinely get crushed.

 

Having actually lived in both places, they're both great places to live.

[radoran]

5 hours ago, CoachX said:

So two prospects that may or may not be regular players for the Flyers, a draft pick that may or may not be a good pick, and a regular d-man who had a horrible year and may, at best, be a second pair guy?

 

Quite frankly, if I'm Columbus I'm not sure I'm taking that. I like Frost and Wisdom has potential but Meyers isn't really of interest.

 

I gotta believe they'll get a better offer or hold onto him to the deadline.

 

5 hours ago, CoachX said:

If they have a chance at a lesser d-man, ala Nisky type, that would cost less, I'd rather see that.

 

For that role, I'd kick the tires on Alec Martinez if he's available.

[RonJeremy]

29 minutes ago, radoran said:

 

Funny thing is, neither Buffalo nor Philly would pay either one of you to live there.

 

Rochester routinely gets more snow that Buffalo City (by about 5 inches per year) because there's far more Lake Effect off Ontario than there is off of Erie and Buffalo City's location on the Northeast Corner of the Lake doesn't usually get a ton of Lake Effect unless the wind is just right. When it is just right (*cough* Blizzard of '77 *cough*) they can get slammed.

 

Now, the Southtowns routinely get crushed.

 

Having actually lived in both places, they're both great places to live.

I would be a pillar of the community in either Buffalo or Philly.

[OccamsRazor]

1 hour ago, radoran said:

For that role, I'd kick the tires on Alec Martinez if he's available.

 

Yes.

 

 

He isn't young I will say this but he has the smarts to lead and the ability to play left or right side.

 

I would take him over Braun 7 days a week and twice on Sunday.

 

 

[CoachX]

@OccamsRazor

 

but is he good enough to make the defense better? We don't need a Braun replacement. Anyone can do that

[flyercanuck]

On 7/1/2021 at 2:39 PM, OccamsRazor said:

 

 

 

I'm scared of what Jones will cost.

 

 

 

 

 

 And even more scared of what the Flyers would trade for him. Then pay  overpay him.

[OccamsRazor]

43 minutes ago, CoachX said:

but is he good enough to make the defense better?

 

Martinez yes.

 

I'll ask you about that with Jones?

 

 

[CoachX]

36 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

Martinez yes.

 

I'll ask you about that with Jones?

 

 

I still think Jones is a premier player at his position. He and Provy together for the next 7 or 8 years, in front of Hart, would be awesome. Analytics can suck a bag of dicks

[OccamsRazor]

1 hour ago, CoachX said:

Analytics can suck a bag of dicks

 

@ruxpin

 

Here is something to read if you really care or for others who do...from last year. This part the most alarming.

 

Secondly, I noticed some things in the defensive end. As you might imagine, Jones was very active in his own zone, getting a lot of touches and winning puck battles using his skating and size. We all remember those instant replays in the Toronto series of him hounding Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews below the goal line. But I noticed that in doing so he almost always pushed the puck to an area where his opponents were able to recover it and continue keeping possession. Additionally, when defending against the rush Jones allows his opponents to enter the zone more than almost any defenceman in the league. He plays a very soft gap and in doing so allows the other team to establish possession and trap the Blue Jackets in the defensive end.

 

 

 

https://jfresh.substack.com/p/is-seth-jones-actually-elite

 

 

 

I find Seth Jones to be a really fascinating player. I agree with those who say that he’s a perfect illustration of the disconnect between analytics and the eye test, but while they might mean that it proves that analytics are fundamentally off-base, I think it shows exactly why they’re valuable. I don’t think that the gulf between how Seth Jones looks from the eye test and the analytics is irreconcilable at all; it’s as clear a representation of the way that certain attributes and skills stand out to the eye test even if they don’t lead to measurable results.

 

If you looked at his statistical and analytical profile (outside of just point totals) without his name attached to it, it would be absolutely impossible to impartially conclude that Seth Jones has played like a top-pairing calibre defenceman, let alone an elite one, in his career. By the best models that we currently have to isolate players from the kinds of context factors that affect their results, Jones has been a pretty unremarkable defenceman at even strength since he’s arrived in Columbus. While he’s said to be one of the most dominant defensive players in the league, at the core function of defence (preventing your goalie from having to face quality chances against) he’s been only a bit better than average.

 

And yet, those who regularly watch him (and those who don’t, but listen to those who regularly watch him) consider him to be a top-five defenceman in the league and an annual Norris contender. I believe that this is in large part because he is so active in the play; his ability to break the puck out consistently without turning it over and carry it into the offensive zone with so much poise is amazing to watch, and his natural physical talents are often on full display. He uses those gifts in the defensive end, breaking up plays along the boards effectively with his stick and using his body to push forwards out of dangerous areas. His activity in transition is probably a big reason why he gets so many points as well, and he has a good shot. It’s impossible not to notice Seth Jones when he’s on the ice.

 

But it’s the things that the eye isn’t as drawn to that explain why despite all of that he profiles analytically as such a mediocre defender. Players like Jones force us to consider the ways that flashy displays of talent do not necessarily translate to macro-level on-ice results; how a player can be really good at certain very visible things but quietly ineffective in other areas. I do not think Seth Jones is an elite defenceman, because to me an elite defenceman is one who marries their physical skills with the ability to tilt the ice in his team’s favour. An elite defensive defenceman must not only break up passes or win puck battles, but prevent his goalie from facing great chances in other less noticeable ways. An elite offensive defenceman must not only carry the puck in and score goals, but use strong judgement and patience in the offensive zone to ensure that his team consistently generates quality scoring chances. An elite two-way defenceman must be strong in both regards. Seth Jones is excellent at many things, but the evidence suggests he does not fit that description.

 

 

[ruxpin]

8 hours ago, CoachX said:

Philly born and bred since 1967....i appreciate you bringing up Von Hayes. I hadnt thrown up in my mouth all day

 

what's next, you gonna bring up the time Ryne Sandberg and Larry Bowa were traded for FCKIN Ivan DeJesus? Just kill me now! ...or at least reserve me a spot in the middle of the road so I can lie down next to you

Oh yeah!  That was a great time, too!

[Buffalo Rick]

19 hours ago, RonJeremy said:

I don’t live in Philly, I live in L.I…..

Is that Long Island?  If so, maybe you can give me some advice?   I am going to NJ to see my daughter and grandkids but then I am taking a first ever trip to Montauk.  What am I i for on a Wednesday or Thursday drive the entire length of the Island?  Have a hotel booked