Luke Schenn: Stay or go?

[OccamsRazor]

So they had to sign MacDonald to a deal because they didn't want to waste the assets used to acquire him, but we shouldn't worry about the assets used to acquire Schenn?

 

I know, I know - the JVR grapes were probably sour because this organization consistently picks guys who are underachievers and they can't motivate players to improve. Not like the Maple Leafs can. Or something. ()

 

And, sure, getting something is better than nothing but it's deals like this that have hamstrung this organization since before they turned Vaclav Prospal and The Pick That Became Danny Briere into Adam Burt (but, hey, they "got something" for it!).

 

I think at this point they'd be lucky to get a 2nd for LSchenn (could change as the deadline approaches but who needs Schenn at this point?) and I think they'd also hope to get more for him (either straight up or in a package deal).

 

On another note, assuming LSchenn stays for the sake of discussion - what length and number do they sign him to? "In a world" where MacDonald makes $5M and Jeff Petry is $5.5M - what does Schenn get? Can the Flyers afford (capwise) to re-sign him and should they want to?

 

Moreover, does Schenn force the issue by not extending in-season?

 

Now, let's have some fun - Schenn to Chicago for Trevor van Riemsdyk. Discuss.

REPORTED!!!

[flyer4ever]

I would trade Streit before Schenn. More return, and much older. I also would not give up on him. He came into the league way too young. D-men take time to develop. I still believe he will get better as he matures. Just my opinion. In his time in Philly the Flyers have played with too big gaps. I hope the new coach plans to fix that. That also hurts a guy like Schenn. Big guys with less quickness need good support. Hopefully he gets it going forward.

[J0e Th0rnton]

I can see Luke Schenn's agent replacing "Edmonton" with "Philadelphia" in that sentence (not that I would agree with it...)

 

The point is, what is Schenn looking for in a new contract? He's on the cap at $3.6M this season.

 

 

 

 

Petry had zero power play points for Montreal last regular season. Zero. He had one (1) in 12 playoff games (3 total points).

 

Over. The. Moon. 

 

 

 

 

He's got .226 points per game in his career. Petry has about .25 ppg. Hits are 2.7 per game for Schenn, 1.94 for Petry. 1.4 blocks per game for Schenn, 1.59 for Petry.

 

If I'm Schenn's agent, Petry's deal is going to be a part of the conversation. MacDonald's deal is the baseline.

Petry's PP skills may not have shown up on the scoreboard, but Montreal fans were LOVING the looks he gave them. The points would have come.

[radoran]

Petry's PP skills may not have shown up on the scoreboard, but Montreal fans were LOVING the looks he gave them. The points would have come.

 

WADR and FWIW, I heard the exact same thing about MacDonald after that trade and signing. The team "played much better" (MacDonald had 4 points in 19 games - all assists). They "looked steadier." "The points will come."

 

The fact that he had all of 11 points in 63 games as the "QB" of an Islander power play that included Tavares, Okposo and Vanek notwithstanding...

 

Could be that the three points in 31 games was just bad luck for Petry and the points will come rolling in next year. Could be...

 

Still doesn't change the fact that he's going to be a guy that Schenn's agent is going to be pointing to for a benchmark salary.

[canoli]

I would trade Streit before Schenn. More return, and much older. I also would not give up on him. He came into the league way too young. D-men take time to develop. I still believe he will get better as he matures. Just my opinion. In his time in Philly the Flyers have played with too big gaps. I hope the new coach plans to fix that. That also hurts a guy like Schenn. Big guys with less quickness need good support. Hopefully he gets it going forward.

 

good post F4E. I agree LSchenn isn't a finished product and we've seen him improve the past couple seasons, particularly in the decision-making dept. w/out the puck. It's only when he gets the puck I start worrying; his only trouble is between his ears, thinking he's a puck-moving D-man when he's not. If he can dial back his offensive tendencies and concentrate on playing good defense he'll have a solid year for the Flyers. If that happens I expect Hextall will want to keep him.

 

But I hope he's not expecting a Homer-esque McDonald deal. Schenn should want a "bridge" deal next shouldn't he? I never learned how it works and I'm too lazy to look it up but doesn't something change when a guy turns 27? Schenn is 25 - how about 2 years at $4mil/year?

[AJgoal]

There's no "bridge deal" for Schenn. He's an UFA after this season - he's hit the seasons played benchmark. That said, I don't think he'll command even what he got on his current deal unless he really blows everyone away. Schenn can point to Pettry and MacDonald all he wants, but there's no arbitration for him, so all he has is what other teams are willing to pay him. Based on what MDZ got, I don't think Hextall will break the bank for Schenn. Someone else might, but if they keep him and someone else is willing to pay him more than he's worth, I'm fine with him walking for nothing. I doubt it will get there, though.

[canoli]

oh right he's UFA after this year - I forgot that. So what's the deal when a guy turns 27? Something changes as far as his status or what kind of contract he can get no?

 

I think you're underestimating the market for him and undervaluing him somewhat. I think plenty of GMs would sign him for $3.6 but Schenn and his agent aren't stupid enough to lowball themselves. I just hope - if the Flyers keep him - the length is <4 years and the cap hit isn't too far north of $4mil/year.

[radoran]

Schenn can point to Pettry and MacDonald all he wants, but there's no arbitration for him, so all he has is what other teams are willing to pay him. Based on what MDZ got, I don't think Hextall will break the bank for Schenn

Which is the point - will a salary gap provoke a trade deadline decision, for example?

Schenn has shown the ability to be a 20-25 point player in this league and with minimal pp time.

I think, like many, that he was terribly misued by Berube, which was true of much of the team.

He could very well put up a career year and be a hot commodity either to re-sign or trade.

[AJgoal]

oh right he's UFA after this year - I forgot that. So what's the deal when a guy turns 27? Something changes as far as his status or what kind of contract he can get no?

 

I think you're underestimating the market for him and undervaluing him somewhat. I think plenty of GMs would sign him for $3.6 but Schenn and his agent aren't stupid enough to lowball themselves. I just hope - if the Flyers keep him - the length is <4 years and the cap hit isn't too far north of $4mil/year.

 

Maybe. I'm just not sure Luke has shown he's going to garner 5 million. As Rad said, he may have a career year. I'd certainly like to keep him, but I won't break the bank on the basis of one strong season, though I do think the general ineptitude he's played under have contributed to his general whelmingness.

 

And a player reaches UFA status either at age 27, or after 7 years in the NHL. Luke will hit 7 years after this season, so the age 27 bit doesn't come into play.

[murraycraven]

Luke Schenn is a goner after this season and possibly before. With Morin on the cusp what is the point of keeping Schenn around? Morin is a better skater and has a better skill set all around.

5 million for Fluke Schenn? Please...

[canoli]

Thanks AJ, 27 yrs old or 7 years in the NHL. Check. I agree don't break the bank for the guy even if he does have a banner year coming up. OTOH I'm not ready to cut him loose based on Flyers' prospects. Morin et al may land a role but they may not and Luke is pretty good when he plays smart. If the Flyers offer 4.5/year and he holds out for 5mil I'm not sure Hextall should let him walk over 500 grand. Does he deserve 5mil/year? Prob not, and that'd be a healthy raise over his current 3.6. But as others have pointed out the market is what it is.

[radoran]

5 million for Fluke Schenn? Please...

What does Fluke Schenn get on the market?

[AJgoal]

I agree re: the prospects. You can't look at Morin, Provorov, Sanheim, etc. and say that they make current players expendable. Guys look good in juniors and fail to make the transition to the NHL way too often to count those chickens before they're playing regular shifts in the NHL.

 

I'm not sold on Luke. As I said in the original post, he does some things well, and is not utterly useless as some might argue. If Hakstol can get him to play a bit smarter, maybe get him to lose a bit of weight and get a bit better footspeed going, he'll likely be a good option at <4 million. More than that, and I'm seriously considering letting him go elsewhere, either via trade at the deadline or as a FA. At 5 million, he better have turned in a season like the Leafs were expecting when they drafted him where they did. But at 26 and with 7 years under his belt, his opportunities for further development will be pretty much gone by the time the season is over.

[brelic]

I agree re: the prospects. You can't look at Morin, Provorov, Sanheim, etc. and say that they make current players expendable. Guys look good in juniors and fail to make the transition to the NHL way too often to count those chickens before they're playing regular shifts in the NHL.

 

Exactly. Luke is the highest drafted defenseman we have. True story. If he can end up so mediocre, so can any of our draftees.

[Podein25]

Exactly. Luke is the highest drafted defenseman we have. True story. If he can end up so mediocre, so can any of our draftees.

Yup. What I don't get is why he can't do himself a favor and lose some weight. His terrible foot speed is partially a result of lugging that weight around. Slim down a bit and watch your game improve. But instead he seems to be getting heavier, no?

[Lunatic]

It is very hard to improve skating by the quarter century mark. By then, muscle memory and previous motor learning is too ingrained. Can't teach an old dog new tricks.

 

Quite frankly, he is also not the smartest defenseman. But that could be coaching as well.

Although it is true that older neuromuscular patterns are more entrenched and harder to change the above sentiment is not quite consistent with newer views of plasticity and neuromotor learning. 

[brelic]

Yup. What I don't get is why he can't do himself a favor and lose some weight. His terrible foot speed is partially a result of lugging that weight around. Slim down a bit and watch your game improve. But instead he seems to be getting heavier, no?

 

Yes, a few people have mentioned that on here before. I'm not sure why it's never been addressed. It could be that we're not as smart as we think we are, or that the organization just hasn't really seen that as a priority in Luke's development. Who knows?

[Podein25]

It could be that we're not as smart as we think we are..

 

 

Speak for yerself dumbass! jk

 

In the absence of an insider account, I have to assume that Luke is one of those guys that easily puts the weight on while taking it off is much more difficult. He's a bit "doughy" if you know what I mean. Put his target weight  (let's say 205-210 or something like that) in his contract with some incentives attached. I mean, honestly....

[murraycraven]

What does Fluke Schenn get on the market?

 

 

Frankly, I could care less what he gets on the market.   MacDud got 5M so anything is possible - contracts are bloated and more so for dmen.   The question should be is he worth that type of contract and is he in the plans for the future.  In my opinion he is not...   I disagree completely that you cant look at a prospect now to take his job in the future. They are future prospects and a few of those blue chip prospects are nearly ready to take the next step.   If you are planning for the future YOU HAVE TO plan for those prospects taking roster spots from guys on the club now.

 

Today's game does not favor slow footed dmen that really cant think the game all that well.  He is a decent player.  He was a draft miss - using the "he is the highest drafted defensemen" is nonsensical at best.  I bet Ottawa used that same line of thinking for Daigle too.   

 

Morin and Prov are probably the most ready to make the team.   

 

Look... I hated Berube more than anyone.   But since he has been fired most people think that some of our under-performing players will do a complete 180 b/c Hakstol is the Coach.   Maybe some will but as the the old saying goes - you cant polish a turd.  I have great faith in Hakstol but he is not going to be a miracle worker and certainly not in his first year.  Some players are not all that good and some were drafted way too high.

 

I think Luke is serviceable but there is no way I am committing 5M a year for him.   I could care less where he was drafted.  He has been in the league long enough and has really not developed much.   I hope he gets 5M per year... just not in Philly.

[radoran]

he'll likely be a good option at <4 million. More than that, and I'm seriously considering letting him go elsewhere, either via trade at the deadline or as a FA. At 5 million, he better have turned in a season like the Leafs were expecting when they drafted him where they did. But at 26 and with 7 years under his belt, his opportunities for further development will be pretty much gone by the time the season is over.

 

The "issue" here is that he's already making $3.6M and the market for defencemen has gone bananas since that contract was signed.

 

I can't see him signing for less than $4M - at all.

 

If Zach Bogosian, Andrew MacDonald, Jeff Petry and Andrej Sekera are all on new $5M+ deals, why wouldn't Schenn('s agent) want to get that?

 

To be clear, again, I think that "the market" is bananacrazy at this point.

 

Frankly, I could care less what he gets on the market.   MacDud got 5M so anything is possible - contracts are bloated and more so for dmen.   The question should be is he worth that type of contract and is he in the plans for the future.  In my opinion he is not...   I disagree completely that you cant look at a prospect now to take his job in the future. They are future prospects and a few of those blue chip prospects are nearly ready to take the next step.   If you are planning for the future YOU HAVE TO plan for those prospects taking roster spots from guys on the club now.

 

That's exactly the question I'm asking - in the context of the thread. The question of the thread is "stay or go" and the question of his compensation and where he fits into the long term plans of the team are essential to the answer.

 

And that's where the market enters into it. If he/his agent thinks some damn fool would pony up big bucks for him and he's not re-signing in season, that could force the Flyers' hand when it comes to the decision at the deadline.

 

Conversely, if he's willing to sign a $4M range deal but only for an extended period does that enter into the Flyers' long term plans? Do you want to see them lock up Schenn to join MacDonald for the next five years?

 

I don't.

[murraycraven]

That's exactly the question I'm asking - in the context of the thread. The question of the thread is "stay or go" and the question of his compensation and where he fits into the long term plans of the team are essential to the answer.

 

And that's where the market enters into it. If he/his agent thinks some damn fool would pony up big bucks for him and he's not re-signing in season, that could force the Flyers' hand when it comes to the decision at the deadline.

 

Conversely, if he's willing to sign a $4M range deal but only for an extended period does that enter into the Flyers' long term plans? Do you want to see them lock up Schenn to join MacDonald for the next five years?

 

I don't.

 

No, I dont want to see them lock up Schenn to join MacDud.   I would trade him now if someone was willing to send a 2nd round pick for him.  Again, I dont think he is a terrible player but I dont think he is an above average player either.   I think he *could* get better but honestly think he is about what he is going to be as far as development.  To Pods point - I really dont see a player that is committed to physical fitness and I really dont see a player that thinks the game.  

 

For the sake of throwing numbers out I would say he would get 4-4.5M on the open market.  

 

I sure as hell rather be paying JVR his contract than paying Schenn 5M a year...

[AJgoal]

Well, the original question was aimed at keeping him for the season, not after. IE, should the Flyers trade him this offseason. The UFA market really doesn't enter into it.

 

But consider the UFA signings this year:

 

Green - 3 years, 6 Million

Sekera - 6 Years, 5.5 million

Martin - 4 Years, 4.85 million

Beauchemin - 3 years, 4.5 million

Oduya - 2 years, 3.75 million

 

That's all of the UFAs who signed for more than what Luke is making this year. I think all of those guys are more desirable to teams than Luke would be. Additionally, I believe next year's crop of UFAs is significantly deeper than this year's, even though I doubt Seabrook and Johnson make it to July 1 without contracts. I think, in general, that UFAs are actually getting less nowadays than they used to. The flip side is that teams are paying a premium to keep their own players from making it to July 1, at least the key ones. But I don't think Luke is viewed as a cornerstone of the franchise. I think the Flyers may strongly consider keeping him if he signs a deal like Oduya's, maybe even with an extra year. But I don't think they'll go out on a limb to keep him. I also don't believe Hextall will let the sunk cost of JVR cloud his judgment when it comes to his decisions on Schenn.

 

All that said, for THIS year, I would keep him, and see if maybe, just maybe, something can be done with him. There's little to no risk involved, and the cap space will come regardless.

[radoran]

Well, the original question was aimed at keeping him for the season, not after. IE, should the Flyers trade him this offseason. The UFA market really doesn't enter into it.

 

Sure, and in that context, they will most likely keep him going into the season.

 

Looking around the league rightnow, I don't see anyone lining up to give a 2nd rounder (or anything) for him. Most teams have a pretty set top 6 in mind at this point. Heck, Cody Franson is still unsigned and could be had for nothing instead of giving up an asset like a 2nd for Schenn. Do you see anyone out there that's "a fit" for Schenn at this point? Minnesota(?)

 

But the long term question of what they do with him is, however, very relevant to even that discussion. If they don't have him in long term plans, he becomes much more expendable. Thus - as was pointed out - if faced with "nothing" do they make a deal to get "something" for him? His UFA status at the end of next season is both a potential bargaining chip as a rental and a potential reason to deal him for the Flyers. And what he "wants" and is "worth" are very relevant to that discussion.

 

FWIW, I think Hextall holds onto him this season and deals him if/when the opportunity arises in season. Wouldn't surprise me, either to see him get a 3rd or something next June for his negotiating rights or even pull a sign-and-trade.

 

I also don't believe Hextall will let the sunk cost of JVR cloud his judgment when it comes to his decisions on Schenn.

 

It wasn't his deal. Neither was Hartnell. Or Grossmann. Or Coburn. And he just dumped Rinaldo "despite" re-signing him.

 

The point about the "sunk assets" is that the team has a history of doing exactly this sort of thing. Hopefully, Hextall is taking them in a new direction. Would be nice to see.

[canoli]

Wow. I'll defer to you guys but...wow that's it? A lousy 2nd rd pick for a pretty decent albeit ocassionally braindead top-6 Dman. Sure there are some diamonds in the rough to be found in the 2nd, 3rd rounds but am I dreaming to expect more of a return for him?

[AJgoal]

That's pretty much how I see it - I think we're both saying pretty much the same thing, just approaching it in different ways. I do believe that the market will bear him out a lot closer to his current salary, as opposed to somewhere in the 4.5 range. Now if some team trades for him and decides to sign him rather than let him hit free agency, that changes things a bit. I do think Luke could garner a 2nd if moved at the deadline.