PhilsFanDrew Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Obviously the buzz from the fanbase around this team for the better part of a month plus has been the addition of Ghost and what he has brought to the team and rightly so. While I have no doubt that his play has been a major catalyst for the Flyers recent stretch of good play(outside of the 3 game west coast skid), I think it is also important to recognize the job Couturier has done bringing stability and some secondary scoring to the lineup. He has 12 points in the last 10 games (6G, 6A) and is a +12 in that stretch. So not only is he scoring more but it is not coming at the expense of his solid defensive game. Ten games is obviously a small sample size and its important to temper expectations but if he continues to emerge as a consistent secondary scoring threat it bodes very well for the Flyers in a number of ways. First and foremost it will help take some pressure off the top line. Also it could help solve what I thought was a glaring weakness. They are a very center rich team but outside of Giroux I didn't see much of a scoring punch coming from the other centers. If he continues to grow into the 2nd line center role this year it allows Hextall to use draft picks and free agency to fulfill other needs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elmatus Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I do hope he keeps it up. 23-24 seems to be the magic numbers for breakout seasons. If he can keep this up, I would consider this a primer and hope for even more next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LegionOfDoom Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Yah I'm glad they put Schenn on his line....Finally! Now Raffle on LW is interesting, I like Read's aggressive shoot first at an open opportunity mentality when he was on that line, but I think Raffle is developing that as well. The last twenty games are gonna be more conclusive for reals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhilsFanDrew Posted January 10, 2016 Author Share Posted January 10, 2016 47 minutes ago, elmatus said: I do hope he keeps it up. 23-24 seems to be the magic numbers for breakout seasons. If he can keep this up, I would consider this a primer and hope for even more next year. I will admit, early in the year I was starting to lose patience on his offensive game ever developing to what we thought it could be when he was drafted. I haven't done a complete 180 over his last 10 games but it is encouraging and I hope he keeps it up. I know he is young but regardless of age he had played 305 NHL games (regular season and playoffs) coming into this season. My fear was he would be approaching that 400 game milestone without developing much offensively and with that amount of games played you kinda are what you are at that point. It becomes so rare after that many games played to evolve more than you have already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OccamsRazor Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Follow Alexander Appleyard@avappleyard .@NHLFlyers Sean Couturier last 10GP: 6g,6a,12p,+12 57.5% Corsi 92.9% Goals for 50.4% on draws 43.3% Oz start 51.6% CorQoC (toughest in NHL) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OccamsRazor Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Sam Carchidi @BroadStBull 8h8 hours ago Good night, good hockey...good for Coots _ 4 points, minus-6 in his first 17 games, 16 points, plus-14 in his last 17 games. #Flyers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icehole Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I've been a big time couturier hater (look at my avatar). I have to give it up to him though. He's been pretty good lately. He still does things that make me wonder when his streak will end, but if he's getting it done, it doesn't matter how it looks. If he keeps up this pace for the rest of the season, I'll join the fan club next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Podein25 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 2 hours ago, icehole said: I've been a big time couturier hater (look at my avatar). I have to give it up to him though. He's been pretty good lately. He still does things that make me wonder when his streak will end, but if he's getting it done, it doesn't matter how it looks. If he keeps up this pace for the rest of the season, I'll join the fan club next year. Sean's playing the kind of winning hockey that he has always played. Maybe he's figured something out on the offense side. Or maybe he just found some chemistry with a couple of guys finally. Dunno. The points will come when you play winning hockey as a group. And when you're winning, you stop spending so much time talking about individual points. Funny that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
murraycraven Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Trade him.... can't skate and will never be anything. .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyClarkeFan16 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 I've always liked Couturier and thought he got a raw deal because he was so good defensively. No other coach had any interest in seeing his offensive game develop. If Couturier was used in an offensive role and if he didn't produce right away, Laviolette and Berube would always blame Couturier and then banish him back into a checking role. Glad to see that Hakstol has finally helped Couturier step out of his shell and become a producer. I expect Sean to have a big second half of the season and if he does and if the Flyers sneak into the playoffs, I see a Selke nomination coming his way. I'm glad that he's persevered and that we're beginning to see the offensive side of his game come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhilsFanDrew Posted January 11, 2016 Author Share Posted January 11, 2016 2 hours ago, BobbyClarkeFan16 said: I've always liked Couturier and thought he got a raw deal because he was so good defensively. No other coach had any interest in seeing his offensive game develop. If Couturier was used in an offensive role and if he didn't produce right away, Laviolette and Berube would always blame Couturier and then banish him back into a checking role. Glad to see that Hakstol has finally helped Couturier step out of his shell and become a producer. I expect Sean to have a big second half of the season and if he does and if the Flyers sneak into the playoffs, I see a Selke nomination coming his way. I'm glad that he's persevered and that we're beginning to see the offensive side of his game come out. I think a big reason Hakstol is willing to let Sean get an extended look on the 2nd line is because of the trust he has in Bellemare and Vandevelde being defensively responsible. Another development that has helped make his decision easier is the fact that Brayden Schenn is looking like he has made the transition from center to wing. Berube kept moving Schenn up and down the lineup at center and wing last year and he relegated Bellemare and Vandevelde to a 4th line role. Hakstol has elevated Bellemare, Vandevelde, and White to a 3rd line checking role and has used the 4th line as a line of players that are either struggling to produce or just happen to be the weaker links of the team to avoid having them exposed playing more minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elmatus Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 3 hours ago, BobbyClarkeFan16 said: I've always liked Couturier and thought he got a raw deal because he was so good defensively. No other coach had any interest in seeing his offensive game develop. If Couturier was used in an offensive role and if he didn't produce right away, Laviolette and Berube would always blame Couturier and then banish him back into a checking role. Glad to see that Hakstol has finally helped Couturier step out of his shell and become a producer. I expect Sean to have a big second half of the season and if he does and if the Flyers sneak into the playoffs, I see a Selke nomination coming his way. I'm glad that he's persevered and that we're beginning to see the offensive side of his game come out. A Selke nod would be a nice touch. I have a feeling he started off too slowly for that though. That said, I completely agree with your take on his development and past coaches. I'm not saying he'll necessarily continue on this trajectory, but I certainly hope he does. If he can keep producing at a decent clip the rest of this year, I think we're going to be treated to a breakout next year. As I mentioned before, he's at the prime age for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King Knut Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 On January 10, 2016 at 9:19 PM, PhilsFanDrew said: Obviously the buzz from the fanbase around this team for the better part of a month plus has been the addition of Ghost and what he has brought to the team and rightly so. While I have no doubt that his play has been a major catalyst for the Flyers recent stretch of good play(outside of the 3 game west coast skid), I think it is also important to recognize the job Couturier has done bringing stability and some secondary scoring to the lineup. He has 12 points in the last 10 games (6G, 6A) and is a +12 in that stretch. So not only is he scoring more but it is not coming at the expense of his solid defensive game. Ten games is obviously a small sample size and its important to temper expectations but if he continues to emerge as a consistent secondary scoring threat it bodes very well for the Flyers in a number of ways. First and foremost it will help take some pressure off the top line. Also it could help solve what I thought was a glaring weakness. They are a very center rich team but outside of Giroux I didn't see much of a scoring punch coming from the other centers. If he continues to grow into the 2nd line center role this year it allows Hextall to use draft picks and free agency to fulfill other needs. I've been quietly avoiding "I told you so" posts about Coots' good run because I know I'd get an earful the minute he did something wrong, but... I'll just say that I'm pleased but unsurprised. When others would say, "what do they see in Coots?" This is pretty much what I saw in him. Hope he can keep it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OccamsRazor Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Don't look now, but Sean Couturier is making a viable case for the Selke Trophy http://www.broadstreethockey.com/2016/1/11/10745438/sean-couturier-selke-trophy-philadelphia-flyers-analysis Some good points. Forward Points/60 Corsi For Percentage Corsi Relative to Teammates Corsi of Competition Zone Start Percentage Shorthanded Corsi Against per 60 Sean Couturier 2.26 55.3% +6.59% 51.18% 42.31% 84.41 Anze Kopitar 1.78 56.7% +0.68% 50.08% 49.28% 102.52 Pavel Datsyuk 1.67 57.2% +6.87% 50.47% 62.03% N/A Patrice Bergeron 1.42 53.1% +5.51% 50.29% 40.44% 88.13 Jonathan Toews 1.23 53.38% +1.94% 50.54% 58.61% 99.23 David Backes 1.17 50.43% -2.77% 50.26% 40.72% 93.98 Marian Hossa 0.95 53.77% +2.27% 50.16% 56.54% 90.37 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brelic Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 I love seeing Couturier's offensive game round into form. I was definitely leaning towards he-is-what-he-is, and it's awesome that he's (seemingly) found another gear. Regarding the potential for Selke.... I notice that Couturier's struggles with faceoffs. He has his whole career. What are the others like? Is that an important part of the Selke defensive-forward criteria? Couturier FO% 47.0 (2011-12) 43.9 (2012-13) 47.7 (2013-14) 48.7 (2014-15) 46.4 (2015-16) EDIT: I just looked up Bergeron and Datsyuk, and they are both in the mid-50% to 60% range on FO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Podein25 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 17 minutes ago, brelic said: I love seeing Couturier's offensive game round into form. I was definitely leaning towards he-is-what-he-is, and it's awesome that he's (seemingly) found another gear. Regarding the potential for Selke.... I notice that Couturier's struggles with faceoffs. He has his whole career. What are the others like? Is that an important part of the Selke defensive-forward criteria? Couturier FO% 47.0 (2011-12) 43.9 (2012-13) 47.7 (2013-14) 48.7 (2014-15) 46.4 (2015-16) EDIT: I just looked up Bergeron and Datsyuk, and they are both in the mid-50% to 60% range on FO. "Is that an important part of the Selke defensive-forward criteria?" The short answer is yes. Faceoffs matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JR Ewing Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Couturier has averaged 1 faceoff win less than loss each game. Bergeron? Great faceoff man. Over his career, how many extra faceoff wins does that mean on a per-game basis? 2. Other recent Selke winners... Toews? Also great on the draw. How many extra wins per game? 2 Kesler? 1 Datsyuk? 1 We've all watched enough hockey to know that an exra faceoff win can sometimes lead to a win. It's true. It's also good to remember that the difference between great faceoff men (and even slightly below) average faceoff men is marginal at best. Probably none of us have watched a player go 8-9 in faceoffs and thought "that really held the team back"... I wouldn't want to see it hold Couturier back from getting too many votes, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brelic Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 59 minutes ago, JR Ewing said: Couturier has averaged 1 faceoff win less than loss each game. Bergeron? Great faceoff man. Over his career, how many extra faceoff wins does that mean on a per-game basis? 2. Other recent Selke winners... Toews? Also great on the draw. How many extra wins per game? 2 Kesler? 1 Datsyuk? 1 We've all watched enough hockey to know that an exra faceoff win can sometimes lead to a win. It's true. It's also good to remember that the difference between great faceoff men (and even slightly below) average faceoff men is marginal at best. Probably none of us have watched a player go 8-9 in faceoffs and thought "that really held the team back"... I wouldn't want to see it hold Couturier back from getting too many votes, either. But that's what statistics are. I mean, in isolation, a guy who runs a 9.85 100m dash is awesome. But not if everyone else is running sub-9.85. A goaltender with a .925 save percentage allows 10 fewer goals per 1000 shots than a .915 goaltender. If you assume an average of 30 shots per game, that means the .915 guy is allowing an extra goal every 3rd game. Those small differences are what separate great players from average players. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JR Ewing Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 This is a bit of an apples/oranges kind of thing. A goal for or against every three games isn't a small difference at all; it's a massive impact. Three goals is roughly 1 win or loss. Over 82 games, it's the difference between Alxander Ovechkin and any NHL player who hasn't scored yet this season. Probably the best study I've seen on the subject found that (to nobody's surprise) the most impactful faceoffs are those outside of the neutral zone: http://statsportsconsulting.com/main/wp-content/uploads/FaceoffAnalysis12-12.pdf Quote "For a player that wins 60% of their 1200 faceoffs, taking 20% more faceoffs outside the neutral zone can add an additional 3 goals or one win per season." It's a much smaller difference than the goalie who lets in one more goal every 3 games or the guy who pumps in 1 more goal every 3. For what it's worth, Sean Couturier is a career 60% (and just about dead even with Patrice Bergeron) on 1,404 defensive zone faceoffs so far in his career. It's about that 3 goals/1 win number cited above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J0e Th0rnton Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 picked him up in 2 Fantasy leagues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Howie58 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Greetings: His potential "coming out" party after contract extension is interesting from an "analytics" standpoint. Remember, the debate was pigeonholing on D versus offensive potential. The analytics were right--assessing his prior performance in what little offensive zone time he had showed significant upside potential. So....maybe the wonks are on to something. Howie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brelic Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 3 hours ago, JR Ewing said: For what it's worth, Sean Couturier is a career 60% (and just about dead even with Patrice Bergeron) on 1,404 defensive zone faceoffs so far in his career. It's about that 3 goals/1 win number cited above. That's an interesting stat. All I could see was his overall number. I wonder why there's such a high discrepancy between his defensive zone faceoffs and the rest of them? Bergeron is pretty close to 60% overall in his career - mid to high 50s, just eyeballing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JR Ewing Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 29 minutes ago, brelic said: That's an interesting stat. All I could see was his overall number. I wonder why there's such a high discrepancy between his defensive zone faceoffs and the rest of them? Bergeron is pretty close to 60% overall in his career - mid to high 50s, just eyeballing it. Why? That's the great mystery, eh? Past old truisms of him bearing down more (which I don't really buy) in the defensive zone, I couldn't hope to say. Bergeron is a machine, btw. You can trot him out in any zone and have a good chance of winning the draw: DefZone FO%: 62.0 NeuZone FO%: 60.8 OffZone FO%: 58.9 Jonathon Toews, though, is much better in the offensive zone than his own end: DefZone FO%: 43.7 OffZone FO%: 70.6 Even then, the effect, as shown by the authors of the above study, isn't extreme. But, then there's Manny Malholtra: DefZone FO%: 88.2 OffZone FO%: 23.9 Why? I'll be damned if I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brelic Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 18 minutes ago, JR Ewing said: Why? That's the great mystery, eh? Past old truisms of him bearing down more (which I don't really buy) in the defensive zone, I couldn't hope to say. Bergeron is a machine, btw. You can trot him out in any zone and have a good chance of winning the draw: DefZone FO%: 62.0 NeuZone FO%: 60.8 OffZone FO%: 58.9 Jonathon Toews, though, is much better in the offensive zone than his own end: DefZone FO%: 43.7 OffZone FO%: 70.6 Even then, the effect, as shown by the authors of the above study, isn't extreme. But, then there's Manny Malholtra: DefZone FO%: 88.2 OffZone FO%: 23.9 Why? I'll be damned if I know. Intuition tells me that they are usually facing the opponent's top faceoff guys when in the offensive zone (opponent's defensive zone), right? That sounds plausible. Bergeron is insane! Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Podein25 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 16 hours ago, brelic said: Intuition tells me that they are usually facing the opponent's top faceoff guys when in the offensive zone (opponent's defensive zone), right? That sounds plausible. Yeah, a team is more likely to put out a faceoff specialist to prevent a loss in your own zone (i.e., a scoring chance), than they are to do so in the offensive zone, especially when it's a case of putting out a defensive center instead of the one that centers your top line. I actually think there are lost opportunities here, that coaches should send out there best faceoff guy to win the draw in the offensive zone more often, not just in the last minute with the goalie pulled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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