The decline of Giroux & the wrench in Hexy's plan

[murraycraven]

Since this has been discussed a bit around numerous topics I thought I would post this for everyone's reading pleasure.   Don't believe this article provides any definitive evidence of G declining - age, injuries, d-zone starts... interesting read nonetheless.   

(Summer for hockey fans sucks)

Quote

 

Over the past two seasons, the Philadelphia Flyers have moved from a franchise stuck in muddled mediocrity to a team with a potentially very bright future. In just two years, general manager Ron Hextall has managed to simultaneously steer his club away from salary cap-induced destruction and restock a formerly-weak farm system -- two very difficult tasks.

In addition, key young players in the organization have taken massive strides. Both Brayden Schenn and Sean Couturier posted long-awaited breakout seasons in 2015-16. Younger forwards like Scott Laughton and Nick Cousins appear ready for larger NHL roles, and Shayne Gostisbehere is primed to be the first homegrown impact defenseman for the Flyers in decades. Finally, fellow top prospects Ivan Provorov, Travis Sanheimand Travis Konecny all had big years in juniors and aren't far behind Ghost in proximity to the big club.

 

For the first time in years, there is a plausible path for the Flyers to become a true championship contender. But there remains one elephant in the room when looking at Philadelphia's current retooling process. Even if Provorov, Sanheim and Konecny all reach something close to their ceilings, and Hextall continues to make smart decisions in the GM chair, AND head coach Dave Hakstol proves that his successful year one in Philadelphia was not a fluke, the Flyers will have a hard time competing for titles if Claude Giroux doesn't remain Claude Giroux.

That's the great gamble that Ron Hextall took when he shifted the Flyers' priorities from the constant win-now approach of Paul Holmgren to his current, more long-term focused strategy. Building a lineup filled with high-end young (and cheap) talent complementing impact vets sure seems like the best way to create a yearly contender. But the process doesn't happen overnight. And every year that the Flyers spend "loading up" with young talent is another year of star center Giroux's prime that is spent on a team without legitimate Stanley Cup aspirations.

Essentially, Hextall is betting that Giroux will still be a high-end first-line center by the time the kids are ready to push the roster to the next level. It's a definite risk. After all, we know that forwards tend to see a dramatic dropoff in every major statisticalcategory starting around the age-30 mark, and Giroux is already 28 going on 29.

Of course, not all forwards fall off a cliff at 30; the aging curve is not a one-size-fits-all road map to a player's future. Joe Thornton was still dominant at 36 this past year, Joe Pavelski didn't hit his scoring peak until he was 29, Ryan Getzlaf remains a 1C for Anaheim at 31, and Patrice Bergeron didn't stop being Patrice Bergeron just because he hit the big 3-0. So it's totally justifiable for Ron Hextall to wager that Claude Giroux would be the type of player to "break" the aging curve, allowing Hextall to build for the future under the assumption that his superstar will still be great into his early 30s.

But the fact that it is a risk can't be ignored. Giroux carries a massive $8.275 million cap hit through age-34, and even if a decline just turns him into a still-useful second or third line center, the size of that contract could quickly become an albatross for the Flyers. But most importantly, NHL teams simply don't win championships without an elite 1C leading the way.

 

Players like Crosby, Toews, Bergeron, Datsyuk and Kopitar weren't merely great centers when their teams won the Cup -- they were at the top of the hockey world, and all are likely to garner serious Hall of Fame consideration once their careers end. So unless you believe Sean Couturier can take up the mantle of "superstar 1C" for the team in the coming years, Philadelphia needs Giroux to stay great, or else the foundation on which Hextall's entire retooling process is based upon begins to wobble.

And that leads us into our yearly evaluation of Claude Giroux. Is he still performing like the elite 1C that the Flyers will need over the next five-to-six seasons, or are cracks beginning to show?

Claude Giroux

Background:

Position	Center
Age	28 (January 12, 1988)
Contract Status	Signed through 2021-22 for $8,275,000 per year

2015-16 Regular Season Numbers:

Basics

 

Ice Time (in minutes)

 

5-on-5: On-Ice

 

5-on-5: Individual

 

5-on-5: Neutral Zone

Are Giroux's statistics in decline?

Back in April of 2012 after the Flyers' first round victory over the Pittsburgh Penguins, then-Philadelphia head coach Peter Laviolette famously proclaimed that Claude Giroux was "the best player in the world." Over time, the statement has generally been viewed in the hockey world as the classic example of small sample size-induced hyperbole, as Giroux's Flyers regressed in the standings over the next few years and failed to take the next step into true championship contention.

The thing is, I'm not sure Laviolette's statement was really that outlandish.

Let's take a second to look at Giroux's age 22-25 seasons, from 2010-11 through 2013-14, and see where he ranked during that four-year period among all NHL forwards in a number of key statistical categories. For standardization's sake, we'll use only metrics from stats.hockeyanalysis.com.

• 11th among NHL forwards in 5-on-5 Points/60 (who played in at least 2500 5v5 minutes)
• 42nd among NHL forwards in 5v5 CorsiRelTM
• 2nd in power play Points/60 (among forwards with at least 400 PP minutes)
• 10th in shorthanded Points/60 (among forwards with at least 400 SH minutes)
• 2nd in shorthanded Corsi Against RelTM (basically shot suppression relative to his teammates)
• played in 289 out of a possible 294 regular season games

Is Giroux the best in any category? No. But a very strong case can be made that he was the best overall special teams player of the period, since only Nicklas Backstrom topped him in power play scoring and Backstrom was sparingly used on the penalty kill, where Giroux also dominated both offensively and defensively.

As for 5-on-5 play, Giroux never was in Sidney Crosby's neighborhood in terms of rate scoring, nor Patrice Bergeron in driving on-ice shot differentials, as both led their respective categories. But the Flyers' captain was still an elite first line scorer and solidly in the middle of the pack among his first line peers when it came to driving play. Combine that with peerless special teams play and underrated durability -- Crosby missed 115 games during those four years and Malkin missed 85 -- and it's not crazy to argue that Giroux, when accounting for all three situations (5v5, PP, PK), was among the best players in hockey from 2010-2014. He might have even been the most valuable one.

But you'll notice that the cutoff for this period of Giroux's statistical dominance is the 2013-14 season. There's a reason for that. Over the past two seasons, Claude Giroux'soverall metrics have undeniably taken a bit of a dive.

Let's start by looking at his statistical performance during 5-on-5 play, specifically his rate scoring and shot attempt differentials relative to his teammates.

 

 

 

 

Note: "Territories" were determined by groupings of every 90 qualifying forwards (three forwards x 30 teams). Top 90 forwards in a category = first line territory. 91-180 = second line territory.

Giroux's performance in 2014-15 was intriguing, because while his play-driving ability at 5v5 remained stellar -- in fact, it actually took a step up -- Giroux's scoring fell off a cliff, dropping to the range of a low-end second line forward. That's territory that the Flyers captain had not visited since his first full NHL season.

But considering Giroux's fantastic on-ice attempt differentials and the fact that every Flyers forward not named Jakub Voracek struggled to score at 5v5 in the final year under coach Craig Berube, it was easy to write off the anomaly. Unfortunately, while Giroux did score at a more efficient rate in 2015-16, he didn't fully bounce back to the rates of his statistical prime. And this time, his possession metrics took a dive into second liner territory, matching his scoring.

It wasn't just Giroux's 5v5 play that sagged last year. After four straight seasons of posting a 5-on-4 Points per 60 rate of over 6.50, Giroux finished at 4.91 in 2015-16, still in the top-40 of all NHL forwards but a far cry from his usual position at the top of the charts. In addition, Giroux's controlled entry rate dropped below 50% for the first time since tracked data became available publicly due to efforts by Jess Schmidt. Considering that in 2011-12, Giroux entered the offensive zone with control of the puck a whopping 67% of the time, falling to 49.01% this past year is a precipitous drop and potential evidence of a physical slowdown.

After all that negativity, what needs be noted is that none of these metrics are bad. Giroux still drove play this year, still scored 67 points to lead the Flyers, still quarterbacked a dangerous top unit with the man advantage. But while the Giroux of 2010-2014 could make a legitimate case to be considered among the best hockey players in the world, the one from the past two seasons was simply a very good player -- a 1C on the whole, but no longer in the class of the true elites from a statistical standpoint.

The real concern isn't that the Giroux of 2015-16 was a bad player, or even an overpaid one, because neither label is accurate. It's that if Giroux's performance took a decent-sized drop from age 25 to age 27, what happens when he hits 30? What about 32? Is this the start of an irreversible downward trend for a player who has still six more years left on a contract paying him like a franchise center?

How can we explain Giroux's recent statistical decline?

In a sense, statistics don't lie, in that they simply measure historical performance. But they can mislead and result in faulty conclusions. In the case of Claude Giroux, they clearly raise the question of whether the Flyers' captain has entered the decline phase of his career, but it's incomplete to merely point to the numbers and say, "Giroux isn't elite anymore!" Instead, let's look at a number of theories that could help to explain his statistical dropoff.

The first and most straightforward theory is also the one that Flyers fans should pray proves to be wrong. This is the aging theory -- the possibility that Giroux is just following the usual statistical curve of an NHL when it comes to the effect of age on scoring and play driving.

After all, Eric Tulsky did find that rate scoring for NHL forwards peaks around age 24, and on-ice attempt differentials at 25. For Giroux, that would have been the 2012-13 and 2013-14 seasons -- coincidentally the final two years of his statistical peak presented earlier.

 

 

If this is the case, the big concern for Philadelphia is that the aging curve dropoff only becomes steeper in a player's late 20s and early 30s, which are just ahead of the now-28 year old Giroux. The past two seasons may not only be the new normal for Giroux, but just the beginning of a steady decline in statistical performance.

But there are other, far less discouraging theories. The most convincing is that last season's statistical decline (especially in play driving ability) was due to Giroux battling through a hip injury that eventually required surgery. By the eye test, Giroux simply did not look to be at his best in the latter half of the season and into the playoffs, and a worsening injury would help to explain that.

In fact, Giroux's drop in 5v5 play-driving results was almost entirely due to a disastrous final two months, when his injury was likely at its worst. 10-game rolling charts of Giroux's relative Corsi (all on-ice shot attempts) and relative Expected Goals (all on-ice attempts weighted for location and quality) help to illustrate when the dropoff truly occurred (courtesy of Corsica.Hockey).

 

 

 

 

In both charts, Giroux's season appears to be rolling along smoothly, as he hovers around his usual elite play-driving range. Then, around the middle of February, his metrics tank. It's especially noticeable in the Expected Goals chart, which sees Giroux go from regularly 5-10 percentage points better than his teammates in the season's first four months, to 10-15 percentage points worse over the final two months.

It's unlikely that Claude Giroux would simply wake up one morning in the middle of February and change from an elite play-driving center into a legitimate liability relative to his teammates. It's more likely that something dramatic occurred, and the "hampered by injuries" theory seems quite believable.

Suddenly, the narrative surrounding Giroux's 2015-16 season changes. Without the injury (if you buy this theory), Giroux is still an elite 5v5 possession player who rebounded to a degree from a poor even-strength scoring season the previous year. That's far less menacing than "everything is trending downward."

A third theory is that much of Giroux's recent statistical issues have been due to factors beyond his control, a combination of team-wide structural adjustments and just plain bad luck.

After all, a case could be made that Giroux's poor 5v5 point totals in 2014-15 were driven by Craig Berube's ineffective on-ice tactics, which helped lead to the coach's firing. Then, the Flyers' goal-scoring struggles to start last season (to which Giroux was not immune) could have been primarily caused by the team adjusting to the new systems of Dave Hakstol. Even the dropoff in power play scoring rates for Giroux could be explained by the bizarre cold streak of Jakub Voracek over the first few months last season, which helped to drag down the performance of the entire unit.

If this theory proves true, then Giroux is poised for a major rebound season in 2016-17. Berube is long gone, the team is now familiar with Hakstol's tactics, and the chances of Voracek shooting at a 1.41% rate on the PP yet again seem about as likely as Eric Lindros coming out of retirement.

In the end, Claude Giroux will have the opportunity to shape his own narrative in the coming season, and lend support to one or more of these theories with his on-ice play. But just as Giroux's statistics over the past two seasons do not guarantee that his performance will continue to progressively decline, all the optimistic theories in the world can't erase the fact that aging is a plausible explanation for Giroux's recent play.

Conclusion

The retooling process of the Philadelphia Flyers under general manager Ron Hextall continued to move in a positive direction over the course of the 2015-16 season. Prospects took leaps forward, young NHL pieces started to live up their on-paper potential, and the team even snuck into the playoffs due to a late surge.

But for Ron Hextall's plan to truly come to fruition, the young talent of the Flyers will need to develop into a strong supporting core while star Claude Giroux is still an impact 1C at the NHL level. However, for the second straight season, Giroux's statistical performance declined from his four-year peak.

There are a number of possible reasons for Giroux's statistical decline that do not constitute an irreversible trend, such as injury, team-wide tactical shifts, and cold streaks from key linemates. Still, the possibility exists that the 28-year old Giroux is simply at the start of his age-related decline, and that things will only get worse from here.

Personally, I don't buy that Giroux is finished as an elite NHL center. My guess is that the hip injury had a major impact on his play-driving ability and that a healthy Giroux will again post Corsi rates in first liner territory. In addition, I suspect that Philadelphia will be a far more efficient scoring team in year two of the Hakstol era, and Giroux's 5v5 Points/60 rate floor is closer to what he delivered this past season rather than being a harbinger of further declines to come.

Hextall also has hopes that the signing of Boyd Gordon will have a positive impact on Giroux, allowing for the captain to take less defensive zone draws at 5v5 and on the penalty kill and keeping him fresher for offensive situations. Decreased responsibilities could certainly help Giroux a bit in his attempt to rebound to past heights.

On the other hand. statistics have the advantage of cutting through personal biases. And in the case of Claude Giroux, they're telling us that the aging process may be starting to catch up with the Flyers captain. That potential outcome can't be ignored just because it's unpleasant to envision.

 

 

http://www.broadstreethockey.com/2016/8/12/12433580/2015-16-flyers-season-review-any-reasons-to-worry-about-giroux

[JR Ewing]

1 hour ago, murraycraven said:

Hextall also has hopes that the signing of Boyd Gordon will have a positive impact on Giroux, allowing for the captain to take less defensive zone draws at 5v5 and on the penalty kill and keeping him fresher for offensive situations. Decreased responsibilities could certainly help Giroux a bit in his attempt to rebound to past heights.

 

Not that I have a major bone to pick, but I've seen this argument come up a few times around here: that Giroux's offense is now being hurt by taking so many defensive zone faceoffs. It's nothing new, though:

 

2016: 51.9%

2015: 53.6%

2014: 55.6%

2013: 47.3%

2012: 48.1%

2011: 49.2%

2010: 50.6%

 

His offense wasn't hurt when he had tougher zone starts. By all means, I would want to give a player as good as Claude Giroux as many offensive zone faceoffs as possible, and with Gordon and Couts taking the bulk, he'll get his chance. The way I've seen it talked about, though, gives the impression that Giroux's been buried in the defensive zone when that isn't really the case.

[radoran]

It certainly doesn't help that they stripped away a lot of his support - Hartnell, Jagr, etc. - and have often gone with a rather questionable theory that Michael Raffl is a first line player. And then Jake Voracek practically disappeared last season.

 

A legit first line LW would help his numbers tremendously, as would a revitalization of Voracek.

 

That said, his numbers show a definite peak from 2011-2014 and the trend line is not encouraging.

 

There's also the not-inconsequential matter of "head coach Craig Berube" for two seasons, but he still posted 86 points and a career-high 28 goals under Berube.

[murraycraven]

@JR Ewing and @radoran

 

 both very good posts...

 

stripping away quality players from G i believe has been a definite factor.  For all the people that love to hate on Hartnell he was a good line-mate for G and the same could be said for the ageless Jagr.  As rad points out if he had legit LW I think he could put up some elite numbers.   I am hoping Schenn is given the spot and he really becomes a consistent player alongside of G.   I think the jury is still out with Jake on the 1st line but I hope Hak gives the Schenn-G-Jake a long and hard look in preseason.   The issue with Jake on the top line is that we are once again putting all of our eggs, aside from Simmonds, on the first line.  The scoring depth continues to really plague this team and until German and TK come up to the big club I don't see this happening. This team is seriously lacking a true scoring threat...

 

I think it is easier for teams to play against the Flyers now... stack your guys against the Flyers 1st line and hope to contain them.  Otherwise, there really is nobody on the Flyers that has that true goal scoring ability.      

[pilldoc]

I've said it before and I will say this again ..... I've never consider Giroux in the same status as a Crosby / Ovie / Malkin /Tavres / Stamkos.  That is not to say Giroux is a bad player.  Let me be clear.... he is a VERY GOOD borderline EXCEPTIONAL player.  I personally have never classified him as ELITE.  IMO, as soon as Lavy made the comment about "best player in the world", it was a comment that was inappropriately labeled to him.

 

We can discuss all the whys when it comes to discussion of Giroux and if he is in or will be in a state of decline.  Injuries certainly have not helped and playing in a crappy system from Berube's home hockey book edition has not been beneficial to Giroux either, but as @radoran mention "he did post 86 points and a career high of 28 goals."

 

As far as last year goes, Giroux's SH% average for the past 3 years is 11.4%.  Last year his SH% was 9.1%.  With that decrease and Jakes horrendous start it would certainly explain Giroux's appearance of a decline last year.  That is not say Giroux is horrible, it simply can be one explanation in why there appears to be a decline in Giroux games.  It will be interesting to see where Giroux is stat wise at then of this coming season.

 

Great read! Thanks for sharing!

[TropicalFruitGirl26]

The Minnesota Wild would LOVE to have present day Claude Giroux on their team....

 

Parise-Giroux-Coyle

Zucker-Staal-Granlund

Niedderreiter -Koivu-Pominville

Stewart - Haula - Schoeder

 

Yes, please. 

 

Not gonna happen, I know...but the point here is, Giroux is STILL a hell of a player, and put in a circumstance like in Minnesota, where they pretty much have everything they need to make a Cup run EXCEPT that true 1C, he would still thrive.

He may not be the type of guy to carry a franchise (especially in Philly where there are still tons of holes in the lineup), but to say he is in decline is insane IMO.

[radoran]

Just now, murraycraven said:

 

I think it is easier for teams to play against the Flyers now... stack your guys against the Flyers 1st line and hope to contain them.  Otherwise, there really is nobody on the Flyers that has that true goal scoring ability.      

 

Quite frankly, I've found the power play more and more predictable over the recent years as well. I find that I can often predict, sitting on the ol' couch, where they're going with the puck. And if I can do it...

 

A real danger in terms of "shutting down" the top line.

 

They're still kinda banking on Couturier emerging as some sort of offensive force..

[pilldoc]

7 minutes ago, TropicalFruitGirl26 said:

The Minnesota Wild would LOVE to have present day Claude Giroux on their team....

 

Parise-Giroux-Coyle

 

 

So which line would be better?  Parise - Giroux - Coyle or Schenn - Giroux - Voracek.  It is a wash IMO.  Parise > Schenn BUT Voracek  > Coyle.

 

I am not advocating Giroux be traded nor am I saying he is at the end of career, BUT there needs to be some serious discussion on to  the topic why it at least "appears" to be that Giroux is on a decline.  Maybe he will go on and score 90 pts this  years (30 G /60 A) and this whole topic will be mute.  However, it is legit to discuss will Giroux still be an outstanding player by the time the young prospects are ready to take this team on a serious playoff run....... as the old saying goes ..."time will only tell"

[JR Ewing]

16 minutes ago, radoran said:

 

Quite frankly, I've found the power play more and more predictable over the recent years as well. I find that I can often predict, sitting on the ol' couch, where they're going with the puck. And if I can do it...

 

A real danger in terms of "shutting down" the top line.

 

They're still kinda banking on Couturier emerging as some sort of offensive force..

 

For what it's worth, the PP has been pretty good, I'd say. Looking at Fenwick numbers (preferable for PP, because in addition to looking at creating shot volume, it strips away blocked shots by PKers, showing which teams get shots through for chances) they show well:

 

2016 - 7th

2015 - 5th

2014 - 6th

2013 - 8th

2012 - 8th

 

And then the bottom line, Goals For per 60 minutes.

 

2016 - 14th, SH% of 11

2015 - 3rd, SH% of 15

2014 - 5th, SH% of 13

2013 - 4th, SH% of 15

2012 - 7th, SH% of 13

 

2016 was just a year where (between all the guys) the team had a low shooting percentage. The Flyers have average 14% the rest of those 4 seasons, and if they had done that last year, they would have been 4th in the NHL, right in the neighbourhood they've been for years. They created just as many chances as they ever do; they just didn't put them away as often as other years.

 

IMO, I don't consider the PP to be a major concern going forward. SH% has a strong tendency to revert to the mean, so my guess is that it should be quite good again.

[intheslot]

Good read !!!! need to increase 5 on 5 scoring ..

 

[radoran]

14 minutes ago, JR Ewing said:

2016 was just a year where (between all the guys) the team had a low shooting percentage. The Flyers have average 14% the rest of those 4 seasons, and if they had done that last year, they would have been 4th in the NHL, right in the neighbourhood they've been for years. They created just as many chances as they ever do; they just didn't put them away as often as other years.

 

Well, I would say that's part and parcel of the issue.

 

If you're becoming more predictable, teams will be able to put you into positions where your shots have a lower percentage chance of going in. Defenders can better time blocks (I get that Fenwick tries to address this) or intercept passes. Goalies can put themselves in better position.

 

Dropping from 3rd to 14th in GFp60 and seeing a SH% drop from 15% to 11% could easily be taken as evidence of a problem. As could seeing your PP% go from 23.4% to 18.9% in one season and your total PPG drop from 60 to 53 (12% drop).

 

They could "revert to the mean" and that would be great. But, again, I just find their power play to be terribly predictable. There was far less motion involved, a lot of standing around and, again, if I can sit on my couch and call where their pass is going next, I would imagine some video-hungry PK coaches can see something of the same thing.

 

Happy, as always, to be wrong

[JR Ewing]

8 minutes ago, radoran said:

 

Well, I would say that's part and parcel of the issue.

 

If you're becoming more predictable, teams will be able to put you into positions where your shots have a lower percentage chance of going in. Defenders can better time blocks (I get that Fenwick tries to address this) or intercept passes. Goalies can put themselves in better position.

 

Dropping from 3rd to 14th in GFp60 and seeing a SH% drop from 15% to 11% could easily be taken as evidence of a problem. As could seeing your PP% go from 23.4% to 18.9% in one season and your total PPG drop from 60 to 53 (12% drop).

 

They could "revert to the mean" and that would be great. But, again, I just find their power play to be terribly predictable. There was far less motion involved, a lot of standing around and, again, if I can sit on my couch and call where their pass is going next, I would imagine some video-hungry PK coaches can see something of the same thing.

 

Happy, as always, to be wrong

 

That could all very well be true. They certainly continued their trend of putting a lot of clear shots through, so that's a good thing. Hopefully, they continue to do that AND score goals.

 

 

 

 

 

... on every team other than Edmonton.  

 

[pilldoc]

 

I think another piece of the pie has to do on how Berube used players versus Hakstol. Under Berube, the Flyers' zone starts were a bit more extreme. Some forwards saw 60% offensive zone starts (Jakub Voracek, e.g.), while others (Couturier, Read) were in the 40% neighborhood. This more extreme usage has been lessened under Hakstol as evidenced by the chart I found in an article I'm reading. Though not to get off topic, it also proves what many oh here have been saying for the past few seasons.  Coots has become a shut down specialist.  His offensive zone starts are below 45% and he is on the ice with the other teams better players.  Under Hakstol this seemed to even out and might also account for a slight decline in Giroux's offense.  Instead of getting 60% Offensive zone starts under Berube, he dropped down to around the 50% range under Hakstol.  (graph from Left Wing Lock).

 

[brelic]

1 hour ago, pilldoc said:

 

  However, it is legit to discuss will Giroux still be an outstanding player by the time the young prospects are ready to take this team on a serious playoff run....... as the old saying goes ..."time will only tell"

 

I think this is the crux of the argument, and I would say the main reason I believe the article starts with a false premise. 

 

The future success of this team, imo, does not depend on Giroux. Maybe the next few seasons do. But when you start projecting 4-5-6 years out, I'm sure Hextall is looking beyond Giroux to be a top producer. He may still be, he may not, but there's nothing that can be done other than keep filling the pipeline with talent. A succession plan.

 

I think we'll be having very different conversations at that time. Maybe Rubtsov or Konecny emerges as a top line center, and Giroux remains the stoic leader and pulse of the franchise in a reduced second line role. Nothing says our best player has to be our captain, and nothing says that best player needs to be Giroux. There are so many moving parts that this team will look considerably different in 5 years from now. 

 

I'm not convinced that Hextall is focused on winning within the Giroux window but rather on making sure the organization is stocked with top shelf talent and succession plans are in place. He wants to build a sustainable organization. The rest will largely sort itself out.  

 

[pilldoc]

36 minutes ago, brelic said:

I think we'll be having very different conversations at that time. Maybe Rubtsov or Konecny emerges as a top line center, and Giroux remains the stoic leader and pulse of the franchise in a reduced second line role. Nothing says our best player has to be our captain, and nothing says that best player needs to be Giroux. There are so many moving parts that this team will look considerably different in 5 years from now. 

 

I'm not convinced that Hextall is focused on winning within the Giroux window but rather on making sure the organization is stocked with top shelf talent and succession plans are in place. He wants to build a sustainable organization. The rest will largely sort itself out.  

 

These are great points.  When Hexy took over I was telling myself it was going to be nothing less than at least 4-5 yrs before this team was a serious threat to win the SC.  Subtract 1 year from this previous season and IMO we are still looking at 3-4 years.  As much as it would be nice for Giroux to win a cup with this team, it may or may not happen.  IF Rubtsov  is as good as some project (all Datysuk comparisons aside), then Rubstov or Konecny become your top 2 guys in the organization offense wise.   

 

You can definitely see Hexy planning for the future here.  In 3-4 years Giroux will be 3+ and probably on the downside of his career.  The one thing that this fan base needs to learn is that this will not be an overnight Cup champion team.  To think otherwise would be very shortsighted and that will be a bitter pill for a vast majority of this fan based to swallow.  Nowadays fans want instant/overnight success.  I don't see that happening here.  Hexy has a plan and you just begin to see the beginnings of it.  Giroux may or may not be part of the plan.... and that is not necessarily a bad thing.

[icehole]

I'm not worried when we have guys that have 39 point "breakout" seasons in year 5 (it's been a while....I had to.)

Anyway, I stated before that I didn't agree with some of Hextal's moves because I felt like he wasn't putting maximum effort in to "win now".  People told me to be patient and wait for the future.  I said that if we're looking to be good 3 or 4 years down the road, why not trade Giroux and get some young talent to grow with the rest of the young talent coming up.

I don't know if trading him would get me what I want though.  He's a great player but I don't think he's a player that will "lead" you to a cup.  He's a player that will be a big contributer on a cup winner if he's the number 2 or 3 guy.  If you trade him though, I don't think you're going to get that guy either.

I think the only choice is to keep him.  Every team needs a leader and he's not a bad choice to lead my team....I just don't think he has the size, maturity, or the physical presence to take it to the end.

[flyercanuck]

16 hours ago, pilldoc said:

I've said it before and I will say this again ..... I've never consider Giroux in the same status as a Crosby / Ovie / Malkin /Tavres / Stamkos.  That is not to say Giroux is a bad player.  Let me be clear.... he is a VERY GOOD borderline EXCEPTIONAL player.  I personally have never classified him as ELITE.  IMO, as soon as Lavy made the comment about "best player in the world", it was a comment that was inappropriately labeled to him.

 

We can discuss all the whys when it comes to discussion of Giroux and if he is in or will be in a state of decline.  Injuries certainly have not helped and playing in a crappy system from Berube's home hockey book edition has not been beneficial to Giroux either, but as @radoran mention "he did post 86 points and a career high of 28 goals."

 

As far as last year goes, Giroux's SH% average for the past 3 years is 11.4%.  Last year his SH% was 9.1%.  With that decrease and Jakes horrendous start it would certainly explain Giroux's appearance of a decline last year.  That is not say Giroux is horrible, it simply can be one explanation in why there appears to be a decline in Giroux games.  It will be interesting to see where Giroux is stat wise at then of this coming season.

 

Great read! Thanks for sharing!

 

Giroux can certainly be put in the same sentence as those players. He was never the best player in the world, and Lavy was foolish to put that on him. Crosbys had off seasons. So has Malkin (his off seasons outnumber his elite ones) So has Ovechkin. So has Stamkos. Tavares has likely had the most stable career (stable, not best) of all those names and Girouxs numbers are close to his.

 

Ask a non-Flyer fan who doesn't hate them about Giroux. I play hockey and ballhockey with fans of all sorts...most of them consider Giroux an elite player.

[mojo1917]

@icehole

 

I think the reason one doesn't trade Giroux is no one thinks the Edmonton model of going with all 1st round picks has worked very well. 

No one would hang in there with a team that has "a process" (see Philadelphia : Sixers) for more than couple of seasons. 

The hockey club is still a business and asses need to be in the seats and tuning in on TV. Dealing the best player for a handful of magic future beans hasn't shown to be a successful business model.

What makes you think Giroux doesn't have the maturity to lead the team ?  The guy is now 28, admittedly he got off to a little bit of a rocky start while he learned on the job, however, I think he's grown into a pretty good leader. I like him as a C better than I do Ovechkin.  

[JR Ewing]

2 hours ago, mojo1917 said:

@icehole

 

I think the reason one doesn't trade Giroux is no one thinks the Edmonton model of going with all 1st round picks has worked very well. 

 

 

I think the big reason it didn't work out well for the Oilers is because they deleted almost every single NHL player from the roster along the way without a replacement in sight, hiredfired a new coach nearly every year, and then threw out a series of 1st round picks as lambs to the slaughter. Excellent players (Lubomir Visnovsky, Sheldon Souray, etc) were driven away for not one damned good reason, and solid NHLers (Andrew Cogliano, Kyle Brodziak) were given away when just entering their prime, all without the slightest thought as to who would play those minutes, and then management would say things like "This team is missing a shot from the point" or "We need some bottom 6 guys who can play both ways". In a league where quality right-handed defensemen with a two-way game are rare, Jeff Petry was gifted like a party favour. After not being able to figure out why getting an ancient goalie who was never great in the first place (Khabibulin), and finally seeing Dubnyk emerge as a solid NHL starter, he was given away for pennies on the dollar after Craic MacTavish shattered his confidence in his debut media avail as GM. In their place, the Oilers trotted out career minor leaguers like Corey Potter, Ryan Jones, and Mark Arcobello.

 

This is a team that only began scouting the World Junior Championship in 2008. This is a team that hired a coach who set his lines based on their VO-2 score established in training camp. This is a team with a senior management member, just last season, went to scout Patrick Laine, but went to the wrong country.

 

Trading Giroux (which I don't suggest) isn't a bad thing because the Oilers rebuild is a fustercluck of historic proportions.

 

 

 

 

 

Time to angry eat a bag of chips now.

 

 

[TropicalFruitGirl26]

23 hours ago, pilldoc said:

 

So which line would be better?  Parise - Giroux - Coyle or Schenn - Giroux - Voracek.  It is a wash IMO.  Parise > Schenn BUT Voracek  > Coyle.

 

I am not advocating Giroux be traded nor am I saying he is at the end of career, BUT there needs to be some serious discussion on to  the topic why it at least "appears" to be that Giroux is on a decline.  Maybe he will go on and score 90 pts this  years (30 G /60 A) and this whole topic will be mute.  However, it is legit to discuss will Giroux still be an outstanding player by the time the young prospects are ready to take this team on a serious playoff run....... as the old saying goes ..."time will only tell"

 

Actually, what I was driving at was the fact that the Wild have many MORE combinations on their forward units than the Flyers do to better compliment a player of Claude Giroux's talents.

 

I just threw those lineups up there as an example, but really, many other viable (and effective) combinations could be made with Giroux as the centerpiece in Minnesota.

That can't really be said for right now in Philadelphia.

Ok... Schenn-Giroux-Voracek is good...quite good in fact...but outside of that, not much else to compliment Giroux at this point in time for the Orange n Black.

And if WE know this, so do the opposing teams the Flyers face and could be a BIG reason why Giroux has been less effective.

 

Not making excuses for the guy, but when you are basically a genuine one line scoring threat, all teams have to do is key in on that line and dare the others to try and beat them.

 

In Minny, Giroux could center the line I mentioned (Parise-Giroux-Coyle), but it could also go, Parise- Giroux-Pominville (should Pommer get his head out of his rear end), or something like Zucker-Giroux-Granlund (THAT would be a potentially awesome line due to the sheer speed and scoring touch of the three skaters), or something like Parise-Giroux-Granlund.

 

Bottom line: there are more options in Minnesota for a Claude Giroux based attack given the roster there...and if teams decide they will key on him there, then the skaters NOT on Giroux's line could certainly find space for themselves and make teams pay there.

Plus, Giroux in Minnesota INSTANTLY, IMO, upgrades the PP.

Until Philly can find themselves some viable scoring depth, Giroux will continue to struggle to find the score sheet with regularity.

 

Like I said, I really do think the Wild have lots of good pieces to make a deep run.....all except that ever elusive 1C, which Claude Giroux certainly STILL is.

[mojo1917]

@JR Ewing

 

oh my god, that was a great rant. Thanks !  

and uh, sorry. 

[Poulin20]

On 8/12/2016 at 2:15 PM, pilldoc said:

IMO, as soon as Lavy made the comment about "best player in the world", it was a comment that was inappropriately labeled to him.

 

I honestly never thought that Lavy was serious when he made that comment.  I think that it was made as a purposely antagonistic remark aimed at Cindy and the Pens meant to rub their noses in it after we disposed of them in that playoff series (man that was great!! BTW).

[Poulin20]

16 hours ago, flyercanuck said:

 

Giroux can certainly be put in the same sentence as those players. He was never the best player in the world, and Lavy was foolish to put that on him. Crosbys had off seasons. So has Malkin (his off seasons outnumber his elite ones) So has Ovechkin. So has Stamkos. Tavares has likely had the most stable career (stable, not best) of all those names and Girouxs numbers are close to his.

 

Ask a non-Flyer fan who doesn't hate them about Giroux. I play hockey and ballhockey with fans of all sorts...most of them consider Giroux an elite player.

 

Same as I said to @Pilldoc above, I don't thank Lavy was being serious.  I think that he was twisting the knife into Cindy and the Pens after we showed them the door.

[pilldoc]

6 hours ago, Poulin20 said:

 

I honestly never thought that Lavy was serious when he made that comment.  I think that it was made as a purposely antagonistic remark aimed at Cindy and the Pens meant to rub their noses in it after we disposed of them in that playoff series (man that was great!! BTW).

 

6 hours ago, Poulin20 said:

 

Same as I said to @Pilldoc above, I don't thank Lavy was being serious.  I think that he was twisting the knife into Cindy and the Pens after we showed them the door.

 

valid point... I never thought about in that perspective.  Yeah that great!  Especially after "the shift" when he leveled Crosby and moments later fired that laser of a shot to score the 1st goal of the game ......  Totally can see your POV..

[BobbyClarkeFan16]

Three things have attributed to Giroux's 'downturn' so to speak. First, he's been over extended by previous coaching regimes. Regular shift, PP and PK. Took draws all over the place and took a pounding. That adds up. The fact he won't be a regular on the PK anymore is a bonus.

 

Second, the captaincy. He's played hurt the past few years and had sucked it up because of the C on his shirt. I think it's been a detriment to him and outs caused him tho play when he shouldn't have. I commend him for caring so deeply about the club, but it doesn't do the team good if he's playing injured our hurt. They need him at his best.

 

Third, he plays so much that you can see at the end of the season he's beat up. They need to alleviate his minutes and have him tested for the playoffs. Honestly, I'd rather have the 70 point forechecking demon he was back in 2011 than the 93 point one way force he was in 2012.