Flyers 2023-24 Trade deadline moves/predictions

[OccamsRazor]

What better way to start it off than with a trade of Sean Walker.

 

"I’ve been told by a well-placed source that the Flyers are holding firm on a first-round pick in return for Walker."

 

https://www.thefourthperiod.com/jan-2024/eyes-on-walker-as-flyers-enter-break

 

 

 

I’ve been told by a well-placed source that the Flyers are holding firm on a first-round pick in return for Walker. Speaking with those around the league, I was told by one executive that fetching a first will be tough, while another said that is a “fair” ask for Walker. The market for rental defencemen did take a hit after the Flames traded Nikita Zadorov for a third- and fifth-round pick, one NHL executive said to me and that could be affecting what teams are willing to pony up for Walker.

 

Though a first-round pick is the ideal return, the Flyers are open to bringing back a younger player that carries similar value. One name that was brought up to me – and one the Flyers have been linked to in the past – is Oilers defenceman Philip Broberg. The 22-year-old former first-round pick has fallen down the depth chart in Edmonton and is currently playing in the AHL.

 

I believe the Flyers are open to taking on reclamation projects – as long as they fit the age timeline as they’re looking for. But Broberg, although he does provide size at 6-foot-3, is a left shot, something the Flyers have an overload of both on their roster and in the system.

 

 

Just one of the suggestions more on the link.

 

Enjoy...

 

 

 

 

Edited January 29 by OccamsRazor

[OccamsRazor]

important tidbit:

 

According to our friends at CapFriendly, the Flyers only project to have a little more than $900,000 by the deadline; the team being forced to carry three goalies (on paper) because of Carter Hart’s indefinite leave of absence has eaten up a lot of previously disposable space. But this doesn’t tell the full story, as the Flyers can open up an additional $6.25 million by moving Ryan Ellis from IR to LT IR – something they are prepared to do if needed.

[OccamsRazor]

 

Bolts and Leafs are depleted of picks (Leafs do have one in 2024 but not 2025) this year's and next year's draft.

 

So if they want picks looks like it's the Oilers with the edge as of now....

[JR Ewing]

I can't imagine the Oilers wanting to move Philip Borberg at all. Coach Woodcroft was giving him spot starts in his 12F/7D lineup, with few minutes, and when Kris Knoblauch took over the team, he switched to a conventional 12/6, and gave the first start at 3LD to Brett Kulak with Broberg initially being pressboxed. The first thing that happened was that the Oilers went on an 8-game winning streak, so the coach wasn't going to change too much in the lineup.

 

Rather than have a 22-year old defenseman sitting around and not playing, he was dispatched to Bakersfield, where he's been their top-pairing LD, playing in all situations. Coach Colin Chaulk is thrilled with him:

 

Quote

 

“He’s a horse, he’s a horse,” Chaulk told Bob Stauffer, host of Oilers Now. “He’s playing tonnes of minutes and he can skate. I believe there is something there… When he first got here he was that skinny first rounder, and kind of figuring out North American hockey. He’s become a man.

“He hasn’t played a lot of hockey in three years. It’s not anyone’s fault. That’s just the way it goes. You’re up, you’re down, you’re in the National Hockey League, you’re judged on a nightly basis, but I feel like he believes in us as coaches and he believes in the guys here. The guys like him. They believe in him. He helps our team. We’re helping him.

“He’s playing sometimes, I think it was the game before (last) he played 31 minutes. It’s astronomical minutes. But he’s also earning it. We’re not just shovelling him out the door. There’s some accountability there, but that’s also part of developing. He’s been a real bright spot.”

 

 

Since he's been down, Knoblauch has referred to wanting to bring him up to get back in the lineup, but after winning 8, then losing 3, now they've gone on the 16 game winning streak. He's not going to make a change like that in the middle of such a streak, so Broberg will continue to get at-bats in the AHL for now.

 

That isn't to say that he's untouchable prospect, but he is key for the Oilers future. Connor Brown's league minimum contract will slide into next year, and the team will be in cap trouble. Brett Kulak's contract probably paves his way off the team, slotting Broberg in nicely and cheaply in that spot. For on-ice and cap reasons, it's difficult to see the Oilers move on from Broberg for anything other than an over-pay.

 

Edited January 29 by JR Ewing

[OccamsRazor]

32 minutes ago, JR Ewing said:

it's difficult to see the Oilers move on from Broberg for anything other than an over-pay.

 

And Flyers aren't really in need of any LHD they have a few of those.

 

What Flyers are in need of are centers (who knew the Flyers of all team would now need centers - not long removed from all they were wanting to draft were centers) and some LW depth.

 

RHD they have Drysdale, Bonk and Sotheran down the RHD side.

 

So they could covet centers and picks and i myself don't see them being trade partners with the Oilers.

 

Guess we know there won't be many leaks from Danny Briere which is a relief from previous front offices and their constant leaks.

 

Up till this point Flyers have been in stealth mode when wheeling and dealing see the Drysdale and Michkov visit as proof.

 

I don't count the Hayes/Krug deal which fell thru because we now know Krug's agent was the one for the leak - thank God of that talk about disaster avoided.

[BobbyClarkeFan16]

I thought the Canucks were sniffing around Walker earlier this year. If they're still interested, I wonder if instead of a first, if the Canucks would offer Vasili Podkolzin instead? They would be a fantastic player to add. I think he'd be the perfect fit on a line with Frost and Tippett. Tippett and Podkolzin could be the physical, shooting wingers while Frost is the setup man.

 

I also think another big move is on the horizon as well. They've got momentum after the Drysdale/Gauthier swap (I marvel at how Briere stole Drysdale and that 2nd round pick is a top three pick in the 2nd), so does Briere do something shocking like moving Konecny or does he play it safe and move Atkinson? What if he does both? I think it's something that bears watching.

 

The team is on a downward spiral now, especially after the news with Carter Hart. It's time to do some more removal. Move guys who deserve a shot at a championship and play more young guys. 

[Howie58]

The picks versus prospects "debate" is getting some attention in the blogosphere and Philly press.  It's interesting to me.  If you want quicker results with some expected outcomes, the prospect route makes sense.  If you want to stockpile at low cost, the picks make sense.  We know the Flyers are seeing 25 and under as cut-point.  After that, it beats me what they do.  From my vantage, a game-changing forward still rates highest as an organizational priority, but what the hell do I know?  Meanwhile, it would surprise me if Walker is still around post-March 8th.  

 

Another question MIGHT be whether they expend any draft or veteran capital to acquire a backup goalie?  Assuming CH is history, do they want Sam to get a breather with someone other than Petersen or Sandstrom?  They might say--what the hell, let's get through the season and take it from there.  Or they might want a seasoned vet or prospect with some juice.  I know we have folks in the draft pipeline, but how long will it be before we see them...and in the case of the Russians...will we ever see them?

 

The command staff are playing a long game.  From that vantage, Atkinson and Laughton, even if they aren't rentals, are expendable.  

[flyerdog]

I feel that it makes sense not to expend assets for a backup goalie. Ride with Peterson/Sandstrom and Ersson,

 

in the off season, i believe there will be a few back-up type Gs available in FA. Some are quality back ups...Our forward group is actually not bad considering...TK,Farabee,Foerster,Tippett,Coots...yeah we are missing that Superstar 'C' that we've always seemed to have....hope they find him...

 

I think the biggest question is Frost...again...and if someone comes in with a good offer for him, I think they would do it...and they should...If Brink get's it together, i think he has higher upside...

 

I think it's good that they are sticking to the plan no matter what happens this season. I know fans would be angry if they trade pieces and that causes a dip in their performance and a loss of playoffs...but Danny/Jones said it point blank after the TB,COL,BOS games that those teams showed just how much work there is left to do and they can't be enamored by what happens THIS season alone. 

[FD19372]

On 1/29/2024 at 4:49 PM, OccamsRazor said:

important tidbit:

 

According to our friends at CapFriendly, the Flyers only project to have a little more than $900,000 by the deadline; the team being forced to carry three goalies (on paper) because of Carter Hart’s indefinite leave of absence has eaten up a lot of previously disposable space. But this doesn’t tell the full story, as the Flyers can open up an additional $6.25 million by moving Ryan Ellis from IR to LT IR – something they are prepared to do if needed.

Then why in the hell haven't they moved Ellis from IR to LT IR? This is a real head scratcher to me. What am I missing? 

[JR Ewing]

3 hours ago, FD19372 said:

Then why in the hell haven't they moved Ellis from IR to LT IR? This is a real head scratcher to me. What am I missing? 

 

There really isn't a benefit to the Flyers if they LTIR Ellis. They're already running a 23-man roster, so they can use Ellis' IR spot to use as an emergency recall space, and they don't have anybody in the system to use up that cap hit. If they LTIR him, they would be wasting a little over $6.25 in available AAV, and since it can be used retroactively, it's more likely that they would LTIR him close to the deadline and then deal him to a team trying to stay above the cap floor.

 

Also, this is a rebuilding year, and they're not really looking to load up.

Edited February 1 by JR Ewing

[GratefulFlyers]

10 hours ago, JR Ewing said:

If they LTIR him, they would be wasting a little over $6.25 in available AAV,

Maybe one day I’ll understand how it works…I thought it was the opposite, that the Flyers would gain $6.25mil in cap space putting Ellis on LTIR. Actually I thought he already was.

 

On 1/31/2024 at 11:42 AM, Howie58 said:

Another question MIGHT be whether they expend any draft or veteran capital to acquire a backup goalie?  Assuming CH is history, do they want Sam to get a breather with someone other than Petersen or Sandstrom?

I think they kinda have to. Hopefully after the break the team snaps out of it and can play how they were playing before Hart left. Otherwise it’ll be damn near impossible to get a fair read on the goaltenders.

 

The thing is Petersen is signed through next season (at a cool $5mil ). How Danny B gets out from under that one is beyond me. Sandstrom is UFA. 

 

What a mess…The 1/1A thing was working so well for the Flyers despite Hart’s focus wavering at times. Ersson appears capable of handling the solo #1 role but pressure changes everything. I like his chances.

[Howie58]

I wonder if Petersen is a buyout candidate next year? Meanwhile, he might turn into a decent back up. I understand the view that overpaying at the trade deadline may hurt the team long-term.  If the team's  play mirrors what we've seen the last five games, Parent or Leighton in their primes wouldn't make much difference. 

[JR Ewing]

8 hours ago, GratefulFlyers said:

Maybe one day I’ll understand how it works…I thought it was the opposite, that the Flyers would gain $6.25mil in cap space putting Ellis on LTIR. Actually I thought he already was.

 

 

It's generally reported that LTIR relief = LTIR'd player's cap hit, but it's a bit more complicated than that. A team can put a player on LTIR whenever he fails a physical, and he will miss more than 24 days. After those 24 days, a team can also retroactively place him on LTIR.

 

The first step in LTIR'ing a player is to determine the accruable cap space limit, and it depends on when (mid/off-season or by the end of training camp) they place the player on LTIR, and is largely based on how much accruable cap space the contract brings them. The ACSL is the new salary cap upper limit the team would have. If they operate below it, they begin to accrue cap space, and if they go above, they begin to use their LTIR relief.

 

Mid/off-season formula: ACSL = Upper cap limit - team cap space
Training Camp: team cap hit - LTIR'd player's cap hit

 

So, in the case of Ryan Ellis...

 

If placed on LTIR today:
Upper cap limit = $87.7M
Team cap space = $87.7M - $0.2M
Accruable Cap Space Limit = $87.7M - $0.2M = $87.5M

 

If Ellis was put on LTIR at training camp:
Team cap hit = $83.3M
Player's cap hit = $6.25M
Accruable Cap Space Limit = $83.3M - $6.25M = $77.05M

 

So, in the case of Ryan Ellis... If the Flyers placed him on LTIR today, and they didn't add anybody to the roster, they would accrue $0.2M in cap space, but if they had made this move at training camp, they would have gained his full cap hit of $6.25M.

 

This goes back to your original question of why they haven't done it. They haven't said, but my best guess:

-The team didn't think they would be this competitive, so there was no real benefit to placing him on LTIR, because they weren't going to spend an extra $6.25M this year just to lose games.

-Since they can put him on LTIR whenever they like at this stage, there's no need to do it until the trade deadline is coming up, when a team wanting to make use of an LTIR contract could be willing to send something of value to make it happen.

 

[OccamsRazor]

Philadelphia #LetsGoFlyers have moved goaltender Carter Hart to non-roster

[CoachX]

On 1/29/2024 at 2:49 PM, OccamsRazor said:

But this doesn’t tell the full story, as the Flyers can open up an additional $6.25 million by moving Ryan Ellis from IR to LT IR – something they are prepared to do if needed.

why wouldn't they do this, and why havent they already?

[CoachX]

5 minutes ago, CoachX said:

why wouldn't they do this, and why havent they already?

disregard...i kept reading

 

impatience is a virtue

[CoachX]

Any chance Laughton gets traded?

 

asking for a friend

[OccamsRazor]

4 hours ago, CoachX said:

why wouldn't they do this, and why havent they already?

 

How about for a young center for just an example off the top of my head.

[CoachX]

38 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

How about for a young center for just an example off the top of my head.

i dont follow. I started reading JR's explanation but I got bored. I still have no idea how it works. Its enough for me that you guys do.

 

Are you saying they can somehow trade Ellis for a center? That would be great. Id trade his contract for a broken flip phone....and I'd throw in a 2nd

[JR Ewing]

2 minutes ago, CoachX said:

i dont follow. I started reading JR's explanation but I got bored. I still have no idea how it works. Its enough for me that you guys do.

 

Are you saying they can somehow trade Ellis for a center? That would be great. Id trade his contract for a broken flip phone....and I'd throw in a 2nd

 

I can almost picture Chuck Fletcher falling asleep at his desk, reading glasses drooping down on his face.

 

[OccamsRazor]

19 minutes ago, CoachX said:

i dont follow. I started reading JR's explanation but I got bored. I still have no idea how it works. Its enough for me that you guys do.

 

Are you saying they can somehow trade Ellis for a center? That would be great. Id trade his contract for a broken flip phone....and I'd throw in a 2nd

 

No I was talking about trading Tippett not Ellis

 

JR was talking about something else I mentioned about Ellis explaining why he wasn't on LTIR yet and only on IR now.

 

 

[CoachX]

I hope they keep Tippett… and the flip phone

[hmc687]

On 1/29/2024 at 10:41 PM, BobbyClarkeFan16 said:

I thought the Canucks were sniffing around Walker earlier this year. If they're still interested, I wonder if instead of a first, if the Canucks would offer Vasili Podkolzin instead? They would be a fantastic player to add. I think he'd be the perfect fit on a line with Frost and Tippett. Tippett and Podkolzin could be the physical, shooting wingers while Frost is the setup man.

 

I also think another big move is on the horizon as well. They've got momentum after the Drysdale/Gauthier swap (I marvel at how Briere stole Drysdale and that 2nd round pick is a top three pick in the 2nd), so does Briere do something shocking like moving Konecny or does he play it safe and move Atkinson? What if he does both? I think it's something that bears watching.

 

The team is on a downward spiral now, especially after the news with Carter Hart. It's time to do some more removal. Move guys who deserve a shot at a championship and play more young guys. 

 

Flyguys are playing closer to expectations.  Their start just wasnt sustainable...they dont have the horses...yet.

 

Not sure if anyone wants Atkinson.  Flyers do need some veteran leaders and Cam is decent for what he is.

 

Despite enjoying Konecny...cant help but wonder about the haul he could fetch

[ruxpin]

20 minutes ago, hmc687 said:

 

Flyguys are playing closer to expectations.  Their start just wasnt sustainable...they dont have the horses...yet.

 

Not sure if anyone wants Atkinson.  Flyers do need some veteran leaders and Cam is decent for what he is.

 

Despite enjoying Konecny...cant help but wonder about the haul he could fetch

Agree with all of that.  I share your sentiment around Konecny, too.

 

I don't know about Konecny. He just seems like the guy you keep and build around.  Well, not "around" but a key piece.  I think with Atkinson off the books the same summer Konecny can be an FA, I try to extend Konecny. By then he's 28, so I'm more concerned with term than dollars. $8M/6 yrs?   I wait until the end of next year, though. If he takes that or less, great. If at the deadline you feel you can't extend him, he's a pretty damn good rental for someone.  Or if by then you realize you still don't have your goalie and your stud pick is going to be stuck in Russia.... The hell of a rental thing again.

 

If someone backs up a truck at this deadline, I have to seriously consider it.  It so far seems like a seller's market this year, so maybe.

[BobbyClarkeFan16]

6 hours ago, ruxpin said:

Agree with all of that.  I share your sentiment around Konecny, too.

 

I don't know about Konecny. He just seems like the guy you keep and build around.  Well, not "around" but a key piece.  I think with Atkinson off the books the same summer Konecny can be an FA, I try to extend Konecny. By then he's 28, so I'm more concerned with term than dollars. $8M/6 yrs?   I wait until the end of next year, though. If he takes that or less, great. If at the deadline you feel you can't extend him, he's a pretty damn good rental for someone.  Or if by then you realize you still don't have your goalie and your stud pick is going to be stuck in Russia.... The hell of a rental thing again.

 

If someone backs up a truck at this deadline, I have to seriously consider it.  It so far seems like a seller's market this year, so maybe.

Konecny is going to look for 8 years. If he's going through a rebuild, he's going to want to be rewarded. It's similar to Couturier.

 

I'd hate to move TK, but I could see someone backing up the Brinks truck for him. I could see a team like Dallas putting together a serious offer. For instance, they've got Wyatt Johnston, Ty Dellandrea and Rope Hintz as centers. So, would Dallas be willing to part with Mavrik Bourque and Logan Stankoven for Konecny? If so, I think it's something that should be considered. 

 

As for Atkinson, getting the salary off the books would be ideal. I'd even settle for a 3rd or a 4th for him.