1/3 Thread: Onward to a Top 5 Pick? Run Aground at the Rock?

[Podein25]

I expect to lose 8 out of the next 10, then go on an unprecedented 7 game winning streak...it's the Flyer way, suck bad enough that you are locked out of a playoff spot, then when missing the playoffs is inevitable, they will come on like gangbusters and move us to the 15th overall pick instead of 3-6 territory. sickening.

Yeah you just know it. Make no changes. At the deadline move contracts for picks. That's it though. Leave Berube behind the bench.

[Digityman]

Yeah you just know it. Make no changes. At the deadline move contracts for picks. That's it though. Leave Berube behind the bench.

 

I'm not sold on Berube but I agree with the rest.  Shed anyone that's not in the 3 year plan and try to get picks.  

 

Next year will be rough no doubt, with steep learning curves for the kids.  Entering 2016/17 until 2020/21 is prime time for the core:

 

2016/17 Roster

 

     ?      | Giroux |  Jake 

Schenn | Laughton | Simmonds

  Read   | Couturier |         ?

     ?      |  Cousins   |  Vandevelde

 

Ghost      | Morin

Sanheim |     ?

Hagg      |      ?

 

Mason | Stolarz

---------------------------------------

Keep, Or Equivilant, Via Draft or Trade

[Podein25]

I'm not sold on Berube but I agree with the rest. Shed anyone that's not in the 3 year plan and try to get picks.

Next year will be rough no doubt, with steep learning curves for the kids. Entering 2016/17 until 2020/21 is prime time for the core:

2016/17 Roster

? | Giroux | Jake

Schenn | Laughton | Simmonds

Read | Couturier | ?

? | Cousins | Vandevelde

Ghost | Morin

Sanheim | ?

Hagg | ?

Mason | Stolarz

---------------------------------------

Keep, Or Equivilant, Via Draft or Trade

I'm not certain Read will be around, but yeah that's the core I guess. I'd add Linblom in as a winger or center, but I might be guilty of projecting his good play in the World Juniors...

I can see the D filled up with free agents but Streit could still be around too.

[pilldoc]

@Digityman

 

thats alot of holes to fill.....  though I like the defense.....just gonna take some time and patience.  Hopefully with some of those hideous contracts coming off the books, we might be able to sign a legit FA or two.  Read might be moved too.... just my 2 cents.

[brelic]

I'm not sold on Berube but I agree with the rest.  Shed anyone that's not in the 3 year plan and try to get picks.  

 

Next year will be rough no doubt, with steep learning curves for the kids.  Entering 2016/17 until 2020/21 is prime time for the core:

 

2016/17 Roster

 

     ?      | Giroux |  Jake 

Schenn | Laughton | Simmonds

  Read   | Couturier |         ?

     ?      |  Cousins   |  Vandevelde

 

Ghost      | Morin

Sanheim |     ?

Hagg      |      ?

 

Mason | Stolarz

---------------------------------------

Keep, Or Equivilant, Via Draft or Trade

 

That blueline looks way too inexperienced. It's debatable whether or not Morin will even develop the skills to be a #1 defenseman, let alone within the next season. Sticking all the young guys with so much responsibility so soon could be a disservice (or even disaster) long-term.

 

I'm coming around to the idea of using Couturier as a chip for a top flight defenseman. I can't remember if it was someone here that posted the article or not, but there was something the other day about the 'magical' 300-game mark (which Cooter is fast approaching). The theory based on past development cycles is that is the point around when you can safely look at a player as a more or less finished product. It's obviously not a certainty, but Hextall would be foolish to ignore that and should look at all his options.

[pilldoc]

That blueline looks way too inexperienced. It's debatable whether or not Morin will even develop the skills to be a #1 defenseman, let alone within the next season. Sticking all the young guys with so much responsibility so soon could be a disservice (or even disaster) long-term.

 

I'm coming around to the idea of using Couturier as a chip for a top flight defenseman. I can't remember if it was someone here that posted the article or not, but there was something the other day about the 'magical' 300-game mark (which Cooter is fast approaching). The theory based on past development cycles is that is the point around when you can safely look at a player as a more or less finished product. It's obviously not a certainty, but Hextall would be foolish to ignore that and should look at all his options.

 

I think that magical "300" number was brought up in that discussion thread a few weeks ago regarding Coots.

[OccamsRazor]

No offense, and shelling out that kind of money on dog **** sucks, but how did anyone look at this roster over this summer and not know?

 

I expected maybe a 8th type of playoff team.....that is about it. On paper this isn't the worst roster...two pretty damn good goaltenders. No one could have predicted they would have sucked this bad. And besides i never pay attention to predictions before the season....they are clueless in all the sports. It's just a guessing game. But they won't get my money at the start of the season next year.

[ruxpin]

I expected maybe a 8th type of playoff team.....that is about it. On paper this isn't the worst roster...two pretty damn good goaltenders. No one could have predicted they would have sucked this bad. And besides i never pay attention to predictions before the season....they are clueless in all the sports. It's just a guessing game. But they won't get my money at the start of the season next year.

Two okay goaltenders, a crap defense on paper and on the ice, no first line left winger and Umberger and VLC sucks.

This team didn't stand a chance out of the gate. I took a lot of crap for saying as much before the season.

Yeah, if you're buying specifically for the Flyers I'd wait until mid-season next year (or year after).

[brelic]

Meltzer had this to say about our blueline:

 

http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Bill-Meltzer/Meltzers-Musings-Flyers-Tumble-Again-Schultz-and-Flyers-Blueline-Dilemma/45/65325

 

 

According to a recent Daily News report, the Flyers and the agent for defenseman Nick Schultz will meet soon to begin discussions on a contract extension for the 32-year-old defenseman. 

 

Schultz, whose career appeared to be on a premature downslide the last few seasons in Edmonton and Columbus, signed a one-year, $1.25 million contract with the Flyers during the offseason. He has rewarded the Flyers by rediscovering the form that made him a mainstay on the Minnesota Wild blueline (he remains the franchise leader in games played). 

 

Schultz has become an every-game starter for the Flyers. He pulls down an average of nearly 19 minutes of ice time per game. The veteran leads the club in blocked shots, has posted a plus-seven rating while showing the underrated mobility that quietly made him a valuable if oft-overlooked player on unheralded Minnesota teams. The only Schultz doesn't -- and won't -- do is contribute many points. He keeps things simple and safe. 

 

Here's the problem: the nature of the market place for veteran defensemen. While Schultz supposedly cares more about term than salary and would prefer to stay put than relocate his family again, no player is wise to give up too much salary in this business. 

 

What would the unrestricted free agent market place bear for Schultz? If he were to go to market as a UFA, he is going to command -- at bare minimum -- at least what Deryk Engelland got from Calgary ($2.92 million per season over a three-year term) last summer. 

 

There is no doubt that some NHL team is going to be willing to pony up something in the $3 million cap hit range for Schultz as long as he stays healthy the rest of this season. It doesn't matter if it's an "overpayment" -- pretty much all established NHL defensemen wind up overpaid by the time their UFA years come around, and it filters up and up annually to the point where players with third-pairing skill sets routinely command salaries north of $3 million leaguewide.

 

The primary exceptions to that rule are players in the situation such as the one Schultz was in last summer where the player's stock had crashed and he had to take a one-year deal at a discount to prove himself again. If the player does so successfully, his salary is likely to balloon again in his next deal. Schultz is also still young enough to command at least a two-year deal and a team might even dangle a third year as the clinching incentive to sign.

 

There is a growing sentiment that the Flyers should be in seller mode with their defensemen: Schultz, Braydon Coburn, Nicklas Grossmann and Luke Schenn being the most common names mentioned. 

 

Such is the insatiable desire for established defensemen around the NHL -- coupled with the way teams horde their own -- that the Flyers could probably collect some draft pick assets (not prospects of any significance, however) if they pared down the veterans on their defense. 

 

My question is this: What would the Flyers do for replacements that represent upgrades at equal or more reasonable cap hits? If the Flyers are simply going to replace overpriced, middling defensemen with other ones, what's the benefit of paring down except for acquiring non-first round picks and hoping a few pan out as NHL players in the future? 

 

Forget "saving money" for the 2015 UFA market. The higher-profile names are usually either re-signed to pre-emptive multi-year extensions by their current teams or command massive overpayment on the open market. Usually, the best buys on the UFA market are the Schultz reclamation project types, not the bigger names who get the massive cap hits and long-term deals.

 

Forget hoping for significant help through the current-day trade market. It is very rare to pull off a deal akin to the 2007 Alexei Zhitnik for Braydon Coburn deal, i.e. a team desperate to make the playoffs dealing an up-and-coming prospect who is NHL ready for an aging veteran. There is no latter day Mark Recchi for Eric Desjardins and John LeClair (and Gilbert Dionne) trade for the Flyers to make. 

 

Even if the Flyers go with youth next season -- Samuel Morin stands a good shot at being with the NHL club next year, while it remains to be seen what happens with Shayne Gostisbehere's ACL rehab and the second half of Robert Hägg's thus-far uneven rookie AHL year -- these players will need to be nurtured slowly and will need veteran partners. 

 

Sure, the Flyers can deal Schultz as a rental and then either re-sign him in July at market cost or else look for a different bargain signing who can do next season what Schultz has done this year. Sure, they can deal non-UFA vets such as Coburn or Grossmann but who replaces those playersn next season and at what cap/trade cost relative to whatever assets would come back Philly's way in the trade?

 

These are not simple issues to resolve. That is why general manager Ron Hextall has not pulled the trigger on any moves yet this season and why his hands may be tied for awhile to come. It's not pretty, but it is reality. 

 

What a player is "worth" and what he can command on the UFA market are two separate issues. The Flyers don't always have to be the team doing the overpaying, but the current market is what it is.

 

 

 

 

I actually disagree with most of what Meltzer is saying in terms of medium to longer-term strategy for this team. 

 

But the bolded part, in particular, I disagree with. There will always be those kinds of trades to be made if you're patient enough, and have the right piece for the right team at the right time. You don't even need all three of those conditions.

 

I mean, look at Filip Forsberg for Martin freakin' Erat. That was highway robbery if I've ever seen it - even at the time I was shocked! Would you give up Laughton or Sanheim or Morin for Erat?? Didn't think so. But someone did. And someone will do it again.

 

Those trades won't always be available or possible, but it doesn't mean you shouldn't try.

[RonJeremy]

Considering how playoff teams grossly overpay at the deadline, there is absolutely no reason we cant get a first rounder or top prospect for Coburn. Yes is is horrible this year , but on a good team he is a solid #3 defensman, who logs big playoff minutes. We gave up second third and round picks for Grossman, so a first or a good prospect for Coburn at the deadline is realistic. Teams bid against each other and drive up the price. Of course if we trade him, as bad as he is, he is still our most overall skilled dman with size and skating ability. Lets jsut hope for some playoff teams to get injuries on the blueline and then be forced to pay through the nose

[caluso]

Morin is playing great. he's much better off where he is than playing on a crappy Flyers team. You really want 2 of our best prospects learning from this steaming pile of festering ratpoo? Really?

i was referring to their injuries, getting "hurt."

 

and Morin is not playing "great"; rather he has been okay since his return. in fact, he only has a bit part on the WJC (their 6th d-man).

 

and then there's Ghost, who, in my opinion, should have made the team out of camp. he is exactly the type of d-man we needed - someone who is mobile and can move the puck. being demoted and tearing your ACL cost him a year of development. and who knows if he'll ever have the same speed / burst.

 

so, i stand by what i wrote: i don't believe that Hextall has any idea how to develop talent, and people can get "hurt" by being sent to the minors, or juniors.

[doom88]

And how would you develop talent?

[radoran]

i was referring to their injuries, getting "hurt."

 

and Morin is not playing "great"; rather he has been okay since his return. in fact, he only has a bit part on the WJC (their 6th d-man).

 

and then there's Ghost, who, in my opinion, should have made the team out of camp. he is exactly the type of d-man we needed - someone who is mobile and can move the puck. being demoted and tearing your ACL cost him a year of development. and who knows if he'll ever have the same speed / burst.

 

so, i stand by what i wrote: i don't believe that Hextall has any idea how to develop talent, and people can get "hurt" by being sent to the minors, or juniors.

Guys also get hurt in the NHL on a frequent basis.

Especially undersized (Ghost) and inexperienced (Morin) players.

Look at a Myers in Buffalo.

While an interesting play on words, Hextall's hurt is in terms of their development.

Even Laughton says his brief stint in the A helped his game and confidence coming in to the NHL.

Injuries happen.

Development does, too.

[mojo1917]

so, i stand by what i wrote: i don't believe that Hextall has any idea how to develop talent, and people can get "hurt" by being sent to the minors, or juniors.

 

Based upon what ?

his couple of months in the Flyers job ?

HIs years with the Kings ? where clearly, they did and still do a poor job of developing players. 

Outside of Dale Tallon, Dean Lombardi, Stan Bowman and maybe Ken Holland who would A. take the Flyers job and B. is guaranteed to be better ?

 

Plus a guy can get hurt playing x box... on a couch.

 

you go negative early and often, and while you're certainly entitled to your opinion, I find your" ray of sunshine" perspective to be tiresome.

[fanaticV3.0]

More of the same as last night against the Canes.

 

I'm one (period) and done tonight too. Nothing redeeming in this team right now, and without Giroux, there's not a whole lot to watch.

 

Marco Polo or Banshee tonight.... hmm, epic battles or epic violence? Either way, it'll be epic!

 

I've probably watched 1 period total over the last several weeks. I'm not kidding either.

 

I don't hesitate to choose a TV show over a game anymore at all.

[Podein25]

@brelic

#epichorror

[brelic]

I've probably watched 1 period total over the last several weeks. I'm not kidding either.

 

I don't hesitate to choose a TV show over a game anymore at all.

 

They're just not fun to watch, right? Since G and Jake have cooled off to a more human pace, there's nothing left to watch.

 

Every once in a while they'll play a very exciting game, but even that's been a long while since it's happened.

[fanaticV3.0]

They're just not fun to watch, right? Since G and Jake have cooled off to a more human pace, there's nothing left to watch.

 

Every once in a while they'll play a very exciting game, but even that's been a long while since it's happened.

 

I've watched worse teams than this one. I watched more during the 06-07 season and in the early 90s. This team, and hockey in general, is boring when you are bad. There's not even fights to keep me interested. I remember going to games in the early 90s without tickets and buying them night of. You can't do that anymore. I knew I'd at least see a few scraps back then, but now it's just lame ass hockey. I just went back to work today after a long break. I don't know if I watched any games over the Christmas holiday.

[caluso]

Hey MOJO

All I can say is that guys like you have drunk the Kool Aid and can't see straight.

Your loyalty and optimism, while noble, is laughable.

News flash for you: the Flyers are terrible and are mired in a very dark period.

I got grief when I posted that Holmgrrn was out of his element with the hard salary cap. How has that worked out?

I got grief when I posted that B Schenn isn't the answer. How has that worked out?

I call it as i see it and the reality is that there is nothing to be positive about regarding this team (other than Jake who I have only posted great things about).

I can't help it if you can't see the truth right in front of your face. The team stinks and your optimism only makes me laugh.

[caluso]

And, as for Hetall being the solution, I just don't see it. Why. Because I have lost faith in the organization.

It's time to start looking at guys outside the organization for solutions. The good Ole boy fraternity hasn't cut it.

Berube, coach

Gomer, President

Dave Brown, head of pro scouting

Hextall, GM

Though I have a feeling you see it more "positively"

[mojo1917]

Hey MOJO

All I can say is that guys like you have drunk the Kool Aid and can't see straight.

Your loyalty and optimism, while noble, is laughable.

News flash for you: the Flyers are terrible and are mired in a very dark period.

I got grief when I posted that Holmgrrn was out of his element with the hard salary cap. How has that worked out?

I got grief when I posted that B Schenn isn't the answer. How has that worked out?

I call it as i see it and the reality is that there is nothing to be positive about regarding this team (other than Jake who I have only posted great things about).

I can't help it if you can't see the truth right in front of your face. The team stinks and your optimism only makes me laugh.

I have no problem recognizing what is going on with the team.

 

They are going to be bad until MacDonald isn't a top pair player, RJ Umberger isn't in uniform, VLC is somewhere else or digging his role on the 2nd power play unit and playing 7 even strength minutes a night.  

 

Throwing a raw project, (Morin) a smallish puck mover from the NCAA (Ghost) into this mix isn't going to help anything, for comparison's sake check out Edmonton and see how well playing your top prospects right away with poor leadership works out.  

 

I have no illusions about this team making the playoffs this year let alone being a dangerous team once in...that is not me.  So do me a favor and don't make any assumptions about what i think, because you don't read enough of what i write to have even the most remote idea.

 

And, as for Hetall being the solution, I just don't see it. Why. Because I have lost faith in the organization.

 

This is fair.

 

I don't think B Schenn is a bust yet, just like I don't think Couturier is a bust yet.  They are still pretty young guys and have moments where I think I see what could be a very good players....  if someone wants to trade us Oliver Ekman-Larsson for one of them I don't blink to make the move, but i don't think they suck.  they're 23 and 22...

 

Hextall hasn't been a stepford organization guy either.  I watched the Monarchs beat the Hershey Bears enough times to know they Kings minor league system is pretty good and that is what Hextall did when he was with the Kings. So past record is not end all be all but it more often than not shows a proclivity for success in similar future endeavors.

 

I think i'd like to see the guy in the job for more than a year before i lump him in the same old suck basket.

 

 

 

[caluso]

And how would you develop talent?

That's the 20 million dollar question.

I don't have the answer. And neither do the Flyers. Whatever methodology they are using is not working. Even the most blindly loyal fan can see that.

Anybody who says otherwise is insane - just look at their roster and embarrassingly thin farm system.

Sorry for not being more "positive" MOJO but the facts are what they are.

Even you would agree. No?

[fanaticV3.0]

I'm not sold on Berube but I agree with the rest.  Shed anyone that's not in the 3 year plan and try to get picks.  

 

Next year will be rough no doubt, with steep learning curves for the kids.  Entering 2016/17 until 2020/21 is prime time for the core:

 

2016/17 Roster

 

     ?      | Giroux |  Jake 

Schenn | Laughton | Simmonds

  Read   | Couturier |         ?

     ?      |  Cousins   |  Vandevelde

 

Ghost      | Morin

Sanheim |     ?

Hagg      |      ?

 

Mason | Stolarz

---------------------------------------

Keep, Or Equivilant, Via Draft or Trade

 

I have stated that many of the guys in green, particularly the ones already on the team, are guys I want to keep. I threw in Raffl too. At this point, it's safe to say someone (probably even a couple) are a part of the problem and won't be here next year.

[caluso]

I have no problem recognizing what is going on with the team.

They are going to be bad until MacDonald isn't a top pair player, RJ Umberger isn't in uniform, VLC is somewhere else or digging his role on the 2nd power play unit and playing 7 even strength minutes a night.

Throwing a raw project, (Morin) a smallish puck mover from the NCAA (Ghost) into this mix isn't going to help anything, for comparison's sake check out Edmonton and see how well playing your top prospects right away with poor leadership works out.

I have no illusions about this team making the playoffs this year let alone being a dangerous team once in...that is not me. So do me a favor and don't make any assumptions about what i think, because you don't read enough of what i write to have even the most remote idea.

This is fair.

I don't think B Schenn is a bust yet, just like I don't think Couturier is a bust yet. They are still pretty young guys and have moments where I think I see what could be a very good players.... if someone wants to trade us Oliver Ekman-Larsson for one of them I don't blink to make the move, but i don't think they suck. they're 23 and 22...

Hextall hasn't been a stepford organization guy either. I watched the Monarchs beat the Hershey Bears enough times to know they Kings minor league system is pretty good and that is what Hextall did when he was with the Kings. So past record is not end all be all but it more often than not shows a proclivity for success in similar future endeavors.

I think i'd like to see the guy in the job for more than a year before i lump him in the same old suck basket.

I don't read your posts so sorry if I assumed you were rah rah about this team.

But why am I "negative" for posting what I see?

I post plenty of positive things when I see them.

Sadly, and even you will agree, there isn't much to be optimistic about these days.

I hope B Schenn develops. I really do. I want all the flyers to succeed, though I think it is a huge mistake to consider Schenn a valuable core guy. He's way too inconsistent.

And what really burns me about Schenn is his lack of consistent effort. I can excuse lack of talent but not lack of effort.

Sadly, the same can be said for lots of Flyers these days. Even Simmonds, another one of my favorites, who I have posted only positive things about, too.

[fanaticV3.0]

Hey MOJO

All I can say is that guys like you have drunk the Kool Aid and can't see straight.

Your loyalty and optimism, while noble, is laughable.

News flash for you: the Flyers are terrible and are mired in a very dark period.

I got grief when I posted that Holmgrrn was out of his element with the hard salary cap. How has that worked out?

I got grief when I posted that B Schenn isn't the answer. How has that worked out?

I call it as i see it and the reality is that there is nothing to be positive about regarding this team (other than Jake who I have only posted great things about).

I can't help it if you can't see the truth right in front of your face. The team stinks and your optimism only makes me laugh.

 

 

And, as for Hetall being the solution, I just don't see it. Why. Because I have lost faith in the organization.

It's time to start looking at guys outside the organization for solutions. The good Ole boy fraternity hasn't cut it.

Berube, coach

Gomer, President

Dave Brown, head of pro scouting

Hextall, GM

Though I have a feeling you see it more "positively"

 

 

 

Optimism? Loyalty? I've never seen posts more wrong than what you are saying on this day. You speak as if you are the lone voice of reason in a stepford community. Are you drunk?