Donnellon's Take on the Team

[radoran]

I think Jack and I were in a small minority that likes the signing at the time.

 

I think a lot of the concern were the #homercoaster™ terms of the deal - four years, 35+, NTC - on a team that, at the time, was dealing with the fallout from another 35+ NMC deal to a defenseman..

 

And the NTC is a fly in the "deal him now" ointment - he's got some cards to play in this deal. I don't necessarily see him nixing a deal to a contender - he's never been on a solid playoff team - but it is something that exists (much like he needs to show he's back from what could have been a serious injury).

 

I do think he has significant value for a team in need at the deadline and getting a low 1st for him would be terrific. Not being a "true rental" could also factor into things.

[AJgoal]

Ladd's interesting. He's having a bit of a down year, but is still on pace for 20+ goals, which would be his fifth consecutive season barring the lockout (18). However, I doubt Winnipeg lets their captain get to free agency, and if he did, he'd probably demand a fairly long term at 5.5-6 million +. I'd kick the tires on a 2-3 year deal, but definitely don't want to overpay, as he'll be on the wrong side of thirty.

[mojo1917]

terms of the deal - four years, 35+, NTC -

 

ugh, i forgot that his was a 35+ deal...

I remember at the time thinking the last year of that deal would be rough but for three years we'd have a very good player,  because he hadn't had a lot of wear and tear on his body.  That last year was always going to be a bit of a lottery, would he gradually decline Timonen or would he fall off a cliff like an NFL running back ?   Now with the pubic plate detachment injury if he comes back and looks the way he looked to start the season, well my belly hurts thinking about more dead cap space.

[Podein25]

Ladd's interesting. He's having a bit of a down year, but is still on pace for 20+ goals, which would be his fifth consecutive season barring the lockout (18). However, I doubt Winnipeg lets their captain get to free agency, and if he did, he'd probably demand a fairly long term at 5.5-6 million +. I'd kick the tires on a 2-3 year deal, but definitely don't want to overpay, as he'll be on the wrong side of thirty.

 

 

Ladd is supposedly wanting 6 years/$41M, which nobody should give him. He's not worth ~$7M and the term is bad.

 

It looks like the team leaked his demands, as well as Buff's and Trouba's, to the media this week to put some pressure on them and maybe to gauge the fans' feelings on the matter. In one online poll that asked fans if the Jets should trade them all, keep them all, or trade/not trade indivdual players, only 8% said they should keep Ladd. 

[AJgoal]

Ladd is supposedly wanting 6 years/$41M, which nobody should give him. He's not worth ~$7M and the term is bad.

 

It looks like the team leaked his demands, as well as Buff's and Trouba's, to the media this week to put some pressure on them and maybe to gauge the fans' feelings on the matter. In one online poll that asked fans if the Jets should trade them all, keep them all, or trade/not trade indivdual players, only 8% said they should keep Ladd. 

 

Yikes. Maybe he'll be a case like Belesky where he'll find the market won't bear what he wants to get paid.

[radoran]

Ladd is supposedly wanting 6 years/$41M, which nobody should give him. He's not worth ~$7M and the term is bad.

Yikes.

 

If the NHL has gotten to the point where a 30-year-old 20-25 goal/50 point guy thinks he's gonna get paid $6.8M for six years  then they should just go ahead and have a lockout next season.

 

This is really absurd.

 

Stop. The. Madness.

[Podein25]

Maybe he'll be a case like Belesky where he'll find the market won't bear what he wants to get paid.

 

 

There's no way he gets to free agency. Chevy either has to get him signed or trade him. I'm not sure what the return is on Ladd. He plays a rugged game, has some scoring touch and has 2 rings, so those are valuable things, but he's 30 so nobody expects him to do it for that much longer. At this point, it looks increasingly like he will be gone. If the Jets continue to struggle and find themselves out of a playoff spot come February he's gone for sure. Maybe Buff too. 

[Podein25]

If the NHL has gotten to the point where a 30-year-old 20-25 goal/50 point guy thinks he's gonna get paid $6.8M for six years  then they should just go ahead and have a lockout next season.

 

This is really absurd.

 

 

Yeah, I think that's what the Jets brass think too and thus put the numbers out there for everyone to see. Buff is asking for $55M over 8 years, also too much. But at least Buff is a special player. Ladd not so much.

[flyercanuck]

agree about Streit FC...  IMO he has *been* expendable for some time now and I am not a Streit hater.  I think Jack and I were in a small minority that likes the signing at the time.   Like every other dman on the Flyers roster they are playing out of a spot.  Streit is not a #1 but can be an effective player.  Still good on the PP and he can skate and move the puck.  I think there will be teams that will give him a hard look at the deadline and if we can get a 1st for him even better.

 

if he sticks around I am not going to be upset either. I don't see Sam as being ready for the NHL next year and unless Prov and/or Sanheim make the leap it would not be terrible to have Streit.  Although, he is now the official QB for the 2nd PP - Gost needs to stick on that 1st unit.  He and G have something special going....

 

Streit has been better than I expected him to be. And in no way do I just want to get rid of him. I just would love to have 2 - 1st round picks again this draft. And 2 - 2nds. It sure helps the rebuild process...especially now that we're kind of loaded prospect-wise at D and G...two positions we were never able to do that in. 

[canoli]

I agree I'm not saying unload him at all costs I'm just guessing there won't be any fabulous offers for him that's all. Obviously a lot will depend on how he plays coming back.

[aziz]

Streit has been better than I expected him to be. And in no way do I just want to get rid of him.

No, don't want to just get rid of him... But moving him makes all of the sense in the world, and I can't see the point to keeping him. He is still a very effective player, but likely won't be in a few years when this team should be getting ready to win games again. So, clearing his cap hit and opening a roster spot for a kid by themselves are reasons to not hold on to him. Then the fact that he is likely to net a good pick and/or a promising prospect pushes him into must-trade territory.

The Flyers will probably suffer a bit in the short term, but the team is not in a short term kind of position. There will be a dozen teams that are, come February, though. Make them pay.

(I know you aren't disagreeing, just the more I think about it, the more I think there is no reason in the world for Streit to be a flyer in March, seemed like a good quote to say that to.)

[AJgoal]

I wonder what Hextall will do if this team claws its way into a playoff spot. I don't think he'll buy. But he might not sell, either. He might still be willing to deal Streit and rely on Ghost to fill his shoes, but how many other guys (Schenn, Gagner, etc) could he unload before he's telling the players that he doesn't care about this year?

[flyercanuck]

@AJgoal

 

Philly has been rolling since Streit went down (not a knock on him, but Ghost is filling  in admirably...I mean better) so depending on whether Ghost can keep it up or he hits a wall, Streit is expendable. Gagner, IMO doesn't bring a lot that makes me want to keep him. If I'm offered a 2nd or even 3rd he's gone. Schenn (I'm assuming you mean Luke) I'd let go for a 2nd. Heck you may even get a 1st if someone is desperate, but I doubt it. 

 

None of those guys are part of the future IMO. If I'm keeping one, it's Schenn, just because of age going forward.

[radoran]

I wonder what Hextall will do if this team claws its way into a playoff spot. I don't think he'll buy. But he might not sell, either.

Philly has been rolling since Streit went down (not a knock on him, but Ghost is filling in admirably...I mean better) so depending on whether Ghost can keep it up or he hits a wall, Streit is expendable.

 

What @flyercanuck is saying makes undeniable, perfect sense.

 

So, that said, what do we think the Flyers will do?

 

None of those guys are part of the future IMO.

 

And we have to hope that Hextall will not make short term decisions that don't have long term benefit.

 

This roster begs to be restructured and there's no way it's going to significantly change and "come together" for Streit next year.

 

I think it benefits the player and the franchise to move him if at all possible.

 

Now, again, what will the Flyers do?

 

Who knows?

[AJgoal]

@AJgoal

 

Philly has been rolling since Streit went down (not a knock on him, but Ghost is filling  in admirably...I mean better) so depending on whether Ghost can keep it up or he hits a wall, Streit is expendable. Gagner, IMO doesn't bring a lot that makes me want to keep him. If I'm offered a 2nd or even 3rd he's gone. Schenn (I'm assuming you mean Luke) I'd let go for a 2nd. Heck you may even get a 1st if someone is desperate, but I doubt it. 

 

None of those guys are part of the future IMO. If I'm keeping one, it's Schenn, just because of age going forward.

 

I'd tend to agree on all counts as far as what I would do. I think Schenn - as unlikely as it may seem - would be the least likely of the three to go, although the team is rolling without him either. I just wonder if Hextall might see it a bit differently given access inside and potential pressure from upstairs. I don't think he buys, even if Snider is on him, but if the team is going into the playoffs, might he view the best move as one he doesn't make? Not add or subtract from the team in order to not mess with the chemistry? I don't know.

[King Knut]

 

I kind of expect Stamkos to sign with Tampa - or be dealt before he reaches free agency to a team that has something worked out. I don't expect the Flyers to be in on that - especially now that #homercoster is gone.

 

 

 

 

I like Gagner, but as you say, he's likely not staying for (much?) less than he's making now ($3.2M).

 

I don't see a lot of UFAs that are readily available after this season - http://www.spotrac.com/nhl/free-agents/- especially not LWers (I think Staal is a pipe dream and then you're looking at Teddy Purcells and Andrew Ladds - not players I'd look to break the bank to get). Teams aren't really letting top players hit the market too too often these days.

 

If anything, some creative trades could be in the offing, otherwise I just see opening up some space and roster spots as a silver lining.

 

 

 Lots of Chatter about Stamkos signing with Toronto.  but I don't see it.  Aside from Babby, they don't really have any other pieces yet.  

 

If I were him, I'd probably just stay in Tampa.  They have a pretty good team, a great coach and look to be competitive for a while.

 

I DO NOT think he'd sign here and I DO NOT THING we should pay him however many billions he's going to expect even if he wanted to.  HOWEVER, all that caveated, I do think paying with the likes of Giroux and now Ghost has got to be appealing to a god given goal scorer who can find the back of the net from any spot on the ice like Stamkos.  The kind of room those two create and their ability to feed a decent pass have to be very exciting to think about.

 

If I'm Hextall, maybe it makes more sense to negotiate with Jake a lot LOT longer before committing 8 million to him the same Year Stamkos is going to be a UFA?

[King Knut]

Gagner and a VLC resolution would net them about $5.5M. Streit would represent another $5.25M.

 

Of course I just remembered that they've already locked up almost that much in the new contracts for Jake and Coots.

 

oops.  

[King Knut]

Horrible i mean horrible in his own

 

I see your point (sort of) but saying he's Horrible (twice) in his own end is an exaggeration.  

And the thing about one dimensional is that you can work with that as an added piece to play on the PP and add a TON of offense during a playoff run.  

 

He may be one dimensional, but he's so good in that one dimension that it really moves the needle.   Any team looking for PP help during a run will greatly benefit from Streit.

[OccamsRazor]

saying he's Horrible (twice) in his own end is an exaggeration.

No. It'not.

[radoran]

Of course I just remembered that they've already locked up almost that much in the new contracts for Jake and Coots.

 

oops.  

 

True, and the Flyers have a $61M payroll at the moment (hockeyscap) that includes VLC, Umburglar and Streit in that number.

 

Looking at that number, it seems Very Unlikely that Gagner will be back at anything but a steep discount - which I/we/us don't expect to happen.

 

But by buying out VLC, Umburglar and dealing Streit they can still create actual space above and beyond Jake and Couturier's increases.

[King Knut]

True, and the Flyers have a $61M payroll at the moment (hockeyscap) that includes VLC, Umburglar and Streit in that number.

 

Looking at that number, it seems Very Unlikely that Gagner will be back at anything but a steep discount - which I/we/us don't expect to happen.

 

But by buying out VLC, Umburglar and dealing Streit they can still create actual space above and beyond Jake and Couturier's increases.

 

Oh definitely.  Just not quite as much as we were originally guessing.  

[AJgoal]

I think it was @flyercanuck that said it a while back, but I agree with it: If the Flyers are not in a position where adding one piece via free agency is a make or break competitive consideration, continue to ride it out with Umberger and Vinny on the payroll (unless of course you can deal them elsewhere). I'd rather take the lumps on the cap all at once, than lose some flexibility down the road. Now, if you have the opportunity to add Andrew Ladd (Just using a name from an earlier conversation) at 4.5 million next year, and you think that it's a move that makes sense in both the short and long term, and you need to clear that space off your books - then I'd consider the buyout route. But I think it all has to be cohesive, not just adding a player because he's the biggest name out there. Otherwise, just wait until next offseason when Umberger falls off the books, and re-evaluate a VLC buyout.

[radoran]

Oh definitely.  Just not quite as much as we were originally guessing.  

 

Streit $5.25M

VLC - $2.5M

Umburglar - $3M

 

Still comes out to around $10M.

 

And that would be on top of the $10M or so they already have.

 

That said, they have

Goalies: Mason, Neuvirth

Defense: Del Zotto, Ghost, Schultz (assuming no Streit in this equation and MacDud™ still buried)

And eight forwards (VeeGees™, Simmonds, Read, Couturier, Laughton, VDV, Bellemare) signed, so they're going to have some holes to fill.

 

And even with the $10M or so they have available without the moves outlined, three D and six Fs could eat that up pretty darn quick. If they bring up MacDud™ then they have two D and six Fs to sign with around $6M...

[flyerrod]

If the NHL has gotten to the point where a 30-year-old 20-25 goal/50 point guy thinks he's gonna get paid $6.8M for six years  then they should just go ahead and have a lockout next season.

 

This is really absurd.

 

Stop. The. Madness.

And yet again we come back to WHO KEEPS MAKING THESE RIDICULOUS OFFERS. I am sick and tired of lockouts which are designed to protect moronic owners from themselves. They are not getting the message. What a player "thinks" he is going to be paid and what he does get paid are 2 completely different things. If the owners are going to continue making stupid offers, let them reap what they sow......

[radoran]

If the owners are going to continue making stupid offers, let them reap what they sow......

 

They keep reaping lost weeks/months/years of hockey for the fans...

 

Unfortunately, it's our team that's done a LOT to inflate the prices and our owner that's been "hard line" about "fiscal responsibility" in the league...