Seravalli: Flyers & Provorov not close

[OccamsRazor]

30 minutes ago, Lindbergh31 said:

I think Ivan and his agent are just waiting to see what the other RFA defensemen are getting and then go from there. The Flyers finally have a potential homegrown number 1 defenseman so they better not trade him.

 

Sure but at the end of the day someone has to be first...it's crazy.

[CoachX]

21 hours ago, King Knut said:

 

That's not really what the trade did at all though is it?

I think thats precisely what it did. He traded a decent dman with a history of suspensions and ejections, for an established veteran without that baggage. Gudas is not the guy who will help the kids develop.

 

I dont see Gudas' contract having anything to do with this decision. In the end though, I think you and I are on the same page

[King Knut]

33 minutes ago, CoachX said:

I think thats precisely what it did. He traded a decent dman with a history of suspensions and ejections, for an established veteran without that baggage. Gudas is not the guy who will help the kids develop.

 

I dont see Gudas' contract having anything to do with this decision. In the end though, I think you and I are on the same page

 

But he didn't make any room for them to play is the thing.

He traded a vet (who was their best D man last year btw) for a slightly better vet with leadership skills.  I'm okay with that.

Then he waived a vet (Mac) and traded for another one (better) in Braun. Still not making any room.

 

I think it was about making room in two years when Niskanen's contract is up and next year when Braun's is.  

[King Knut]

2 hours ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

Sure but at the end of the day someone has to be first...it's crazy.

 

Trouba was first.  It's time. 

[radoran]

4 hours ago, flyercanuck said:

I just think the team will take a step forward and doesn't need one my friend.

 

No team has ever needed a slogan.

 

4 hours ago, flyercanuck said:

I don't need no winery...I can grow WEED in my backyard.....LEGALLY!

 

So, just the cheese shops, then? Pardonnez-moi - fromagerie.

 

[mojo1917]

22 hours ago, radoran said:

* and that's 20 big American dollars, so, you know, you'll be rich in your socialist hellhole and free to visit whatever area wineries and cheese stores you might like to frequent.

man, i laughed so hard at this - thanks

 

[flyercanuck]

53 minutes ago, radoran said:

 

 

 

So, just the cheese shops, then? Pardonnez-moi - fromagerie.

 

 

 

Did someone mention cheese shop?

 

 

[radoran]

1 hour ago, mojo1917 said:

man, i laughed so hard at this - thanks

 

 

It's my "I drove 20 miles into southern Quebec two weeks ago" assessment of Canada. So, you know, as well-informed and non-judgemental as always.

 

[OccamsRazor]

5 hours ago, King Knut said:

 

Trouba was first.  It's time. 

 

He has nothing to do with the 3 waiting for each other to sign first.

[King Knut]

36 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

He has nothing to do with the 3 waiting for each other to sign first.

Oh you meant the three Flyers? Laughton’s signed.  Wait what three do you mean?  Werenski?

[OccamsRazor]

1 hour ago, King Knut said:

Oh you meant the three Flyers? Laughton’s signed.  Wait what three do you mean?  Werenski?

 

No. 

 

Provorov, McAvoy and Werenski.

 

Trouba has no bearing on Provorov.

[King Knut]

11 hours ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

No. 

 

Provorov, McAvoy and Werenski.

 

Trouba has no bearing on Provorov.

 

I’m not trying to be contentious, i’m Just curious, why don’t you think Trouba matters?  

 

Because hes he’s never played for the team that signed him?  

[OccamsRazor]

8 minutes ago, King Knut said:

 

I’m not trying to be contentious, i’m Just curious, why don’t you think Trouba matters?  

 

Because hes he’s never played for the team that signed him?  

 

As stated already he is a guy who will be 26 this year which means he would have been a UFA next offseason free to sign wherever he wanted for as much as he could get. All he has to do was sign a one year deal to do it. He has arbitration rights which he exercised.

 

So he would have been back on the market next year. But he didn't he opted to take the contract with the Rangers.

 

It isn't the same thing as being a 22 year old kid coming off your entry level contract with zero arbitration rights.

 

Sorry they are not the same they may think so in their own minds but they are not. They are defenseman at different stages of their careers.

 

This is the last time i will respond to this type of question i have time and time again said this on this topic and i am done with it.

[OccamsRazor]

On 7/26/2019 at 10:12 AM, King Knut said:

 

I’m not trying to be contentious, i’m Just curious, why don’t you think Trouba matters?  

 

Because hes he’s never played for the team that signed him?  

 

Provorov situation is kind of like the waiting game going on with Marner, Point and Rantanen.

 

All forward version.

 

Who blinks first.

[Lindbergh31]

On 7/28/2019 at 2:45 PM, OccamsRazor said:

 

Provorov situation is kind of like the waiting game going on with Marner, Point and Rantanen.

 

All forward version.

 

Who blinks first.

True, but Colorado just signed Samuel Girard to a 7 year deal worth $35 million so cap hit of $5 million per year. How much better is Provorov to Girard? I think the contract that Ekblad got with Florida would be great for Provorov but I'm not his agent. But if Provorov and his agent are waiting to see what McAvoy gets they might be disappointed when he resigns a deal with the Bruins for less than $7 million per year. It's seems there aren't a lot of players with a larger cap hit than Bergeron.

[OccamsRazor]

2 minutes ago, Lindbergh31 said:

True, but Colorado just signed Samuel Girard to a 7 year deal worth $35 million so cap hit of $5 million per year. How much better is Provorov to Girard? I think the contract that Ekblad got with Florida would be great for Provorov but I'm not his agent. But if Provorov and his agent are waiting to see what McAvoy gets they might be disappointed when he resigns a deal with the Bruins for less than $7 million per year. It's seems there aren't a lot of players with a larger cap hit than Bergeron.

 

I would have no problem giving him 8 years 8 mill AAV.

 

I think he is that important and going to be that good.

 

But would Chuckles? And would he be ok signing that long or would he rather sign a 3 year deal and then do it again and see how much more he could make on the next one?

 

Ya know why settle for 8 when in maybe 3 4 years you could be banking 11-12 mill per?

 

That would be a 20 mill difference he could be missing out on.

 

I can't say what he is thinking.

[Lindbergh31]

2 hours ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

I would have no problem giving him 8 years 8 mill AAV.

 

I think he is that important and going to be that good.

 

But would Chuckles? And would he be ok signing that long or would he rather sign a 3 year deal and then do it again and see how much more he could make on the next one?

 

Ya know why settle for 8 when in maybe 3 4 years you could be banking 11-12 mill per?

 

That would be a 20 mill difference he could be missing out on.

 

I can't say what he is thinking.

True, this class of RFA will have long-term effects on their teams, either good or bad. Hopefully Provorov is signed to an 8 year deal when it's all said and done.

[King Knut]

4 hours ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

I would have no problem giving him 8 years 8 mill AAV.

 

I think he is that important and going to be that good.

 

But would Chuckles? And would he be ok signing that long or would he rather sign a 3 year deal and then do it again and see how much more he could make on the next one?

 

Ya know why settle for 8 when in maybe 3 4 years you could be banking 11-12 mill per?

 

That would be a 20 mill difference he could be missing out on.

 

I can't say what he is thinking.

 

Looking at the cap space and the contracts coming up over the next few years, my guess is that Chuck is likely trying to sneak Provy in on a longer contract for less money than 8 million right now.  What would make the most sense for Chuck right now would be something in the 5 million dollar range for the next three years.  

 

Provy knows that's undervalue.  Provy's agent also likely knows that Sanheim and Myers are looking quite good right now and in three years, may become more of a priority than Provy or at least may make him more expendable.  

 

My guess is that Provy's pushing for the big deal now and quite frankly Chuck can't afford it until he kills a few more contracts.  

 

I think it's inevitable that Fletcher is either planning on trading away Jake or JVR before the start of next season, or is hoping the new CBA gives him a chance to buy them out without cap hits.  The math just isn't working out past this year.

Right now, He's got to sign Provo for 8 or less and TK for 5 or less.  Even if he manages that, he's still going to have to make 7-10 million in cap room between now and next season just to bring back Patrick, Lindblom and Myers (depending on how much they progress). 

 

 

 

[elmatus]

1 hour ago, King Knut said:

I think it's inevitable that Fletcher is either planning on trading away Jake or JVR before the start of next season, or is hoping the new CBA gives him a chance to buy them out without cap hits.  The math just isn't working out past this year.

 

It would be silly to buyout either of those guys. They both have significant trade value and can absolutely be moved if Fletch chooses to go that route. That CBA buyout is likely something he'd hang on to for Hayes down the road.

 

You're not wrong about the math though. Seattle should "help" with this a bit, but things are going to get testy over the next couple years with all these young guns aiming for better contracts. At some point, someone is going to get traded for sure, whether that's Ghost, Voracek, or JVR. Ghost would seem the most likely atm given his position and reasonable contract. One of Voracek and JVR will likely be exposed to Seattle to fill the exposure requirements.

 

Assuming the next CBA includes an amnesty buyout -- which why wouldn't it -- Hayes seems likely to be bought out in maybe 3-4 years, or whenever he's no longer playing a role on the team that is commensurate with his paycheck, or whenever Fletch just needs the money to sign someone more important to the team.

[Podein25]

18 minutes ago, elmatus said:

That CBA buyout is likely something he'd hang on to for Hayes down the road.

 

       

[King Knut]

42 minutes ago, elmatus said:

It would be silly to buyout either of those guys. They both have significant trade value and can absolutely be moved if Fletch chooses to go that route. That CBA buyout is likely something he'd hang on to for Hayes down the road.

 

 

'They have  trade value now, and they still might this time next year when all this will be starting to boil up.  I don't know if they will in three years when they're older and still have a few years left.  Next off season would be the time to move them I think.  Which may in fact be the plan.  

 

If you can't move them without retaining significant salary, and you have the ability to do  amnesty buyouts like Briere and Bryz that don't count against the cap, that's probably the easier solution and you might have to do that next summer.  I forget what the buyout period was last time.  

 

42 minutes ago, elmatus said:

 

You're not wrong about the math though. Seattle should "help" with this a bit, but things are going to get testy over the next couple years with all these young guns aiming for better contracts. At some point, someone is going to get traded for sure, whether that's Ghost, Voracek, or JVR. Ghost would seem the most likely atm given his position and reasonable contract. One of Voracek and JVR will likely be exposed to Seattle to fill the exposure requirements.

 

 

Seattle is going to frustrate the hell out of me.  I think they'll be taking Ghost.  I don't think they'll be taking Jake or JVR.  They might, but if you can get Ghost for two years at his salary, I think you do it. I expect Provo, Sanheim and Myers to be protected.  

 

Because of the reasonability of Ghost's contract, I think trading him only makes sense if you're getting actual return and they can't fit much of that in under the cap so it would have to be picks... in which case, if you're shooting to win now, I'd just as soon keep Ghost.

 

I think trading Ghost made more sense to me when they might have gotten an RFA like Trouba, Johnson or Kapanen for him.  Of course there are still some unsigned RFA's out there, so who knows?
 

42 minutes ago, elmatus said:

Assuming the next CBA includes an amnesty buyout -- which why wouldn't it -- Hayes seems likely to be bought out in maybe 3-4 years, or whenever he's no longer playing a role on the team that is commensurate with his paycheck, or whenever Fletch just needs the money to sign someone more important to the team.

 

If the universe isn't completely evil to the Flyers, they may just need that money for the kids that are already here.  Fingers Crossed.

 

If there was to be an amnesty buyout though< i I'd agree that it should likely be Hayes.  

 

 

[elmatus]

14 hours ago, King Knut said:

Seattle is going to frustrate the hell out of me.  I think they'll be taking Ghost.  I don't think they'll be taking Jake or JVR.  They might, but if you can get Ghost for two years at his salary, I think you do it. I expect Provo, Sanheim and Myers to be protected.  

 

 

I think as it stands they can protect pretty much all the guys we would want them to minus one dman. That's why I think Ghost would be the likely trade candidate. You're right that Seattle would absolutely scoop him up over JVR or Voracek, which is why I think he'll get traded before that can happen. If he doesn't, it's because one of the young kids hasn't really panned out as we would have liked, and Fletch would rather protect Ghost to expose one of them. Hopefully that isn't the case.

 

With Ghost out of the picture, and all our solid other players protected, that's where I think JVR or Voracek will end up being picked up. Fletch likely can't protect all those guys and still satisfy the minimum exposure requirement, so I think one of them is likely to be exposed and gone.

 

As you say, if the team is looking like a contender, they may just keep Ghost to try and make a run. We really won't know that until we see what kind of impact the new coaching staff has on the team. I certainly hope so!

Edited August 2, 2019 by elmatus

[King Knut]

6 hours ago, elmatus said:

 

I think as it stands they can protect pretty much all the guys we would want them to minus one dman. That's why I think Ghost would be the likely trade candidate. You're right that Seattle would absolutely scoop him up over JVR or Voracek, which is why I think he'll get traded before that can happen. If he doesn't, it's because one of the young kids hasn't really panned out as we would have liked, and Fletch would rather protect Ghost to expose one of them. Hopefully that isn't the case.

 

With Ghost out of the picture, and all our solid other players protected, that's where I think JVR or Voracek will end up being picked up. Fletch likely can't protect all those guys and still satisfy the minimum exposure requirement, so I think one of them is likely to be exposed and gone.

 

As you say, if the team is looking like a contender, they may just keep Ghost to try and make a run. We really won't know that until we see what kind of impact the new coaching staff has on the team. I certainly hope so!

 

I like your thinking on the Ghost trade to necessitate them taking a fat contract forward.  

 

I wouldn't mind that.  Jake will will certainly fit in in Seattle.  

 

Something inside I can't shake thinks that barring another injury, Sam Morin is going to prove himself a very valuable player over the next two seasons.   It's not the kind of thing you can hope to be wrong about, because he'll help the team until the draft if so, it'll frustrate me to lose either him or Ghost in any regard, but at least in your trade scenario we get something back.  

[King Knut]

22 hours ago, Podein25 said:

 

       

 

22 hours ago, elmatus said:

Assuming the next CBA includes an amnesty buyout -- which why wouldn't it -- Hayes seems likely to be bought out in maybe 3-4 years, or whenever he's no longer playing a role on the team that is commensurate with his paycheck, or whenever Fletch just needs the money to sign someone more important to the team.

 

Can you amnesty buy-out a guy with an NMC?  I can't remember if Bryz or Briere had one.  

[ruxpin]

On 8/2/2019 at 1:37 PM, King Knut said:

 

 

Can you amnesty buy-out a guy with an NMC?  I can't remember if Bryz or Briere had one.  

Not sure about Briere (I think so), but yes on Bryz.

 

Yeah, it's kind of the whole point to the "amnesty" thing. It wipes out any stupid mistake the club made regardless of how egregious.