Popular Post Howie58 Posted March 31, 2022 Popular Post Share Posted March 31, 2022 (edited) Greetings: Here's a take on the "Aggressive Retool" which says teams as poor as the Flyers were this year will show some improvement the following season, but not very much. The author examines data from 2012 with emphasis on goal differential: Can the Philadelphia Flyers really pull off an “aggressive retool”? - Broad Street Hockey My take is that we can expect a "regression to the mean" but not much more. Building a winning core of players doesn't happen overnight. On a related note, Sam Carchidi has joined the "Blow It Up" Club, noting some high-priced contracts that don't contribute much: Carchidi column: Flyers need to blow it up - Philly Hockey Now I don't think he's saying anything we haven't felt for ages. On the other hand, it is probably a lot more realistic than the Comcast reporters (Hall, Hatcher, Fordyce) who appear to go along with the Fletcher/Scott spin and report on improvements of some players while neglecting the big (sad) picture. A JVR buyout gets considerable mention these days and it isn't too costly. Candidly, Hayes' contract is more bothersome in my mind. With Ellis--as I've said before, I hope we don't have another Mike Rathje on our hands. Peace, Howie Edited March 31, 2022 by Howie58 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post mojo1917 Posted March 31, 2022 Popular Post Share Posted March 31, 2022 Thanks for the links @Howie58 I'm not a huge fan of Sam's, I can't disagree with too many of his points though. This year was terrible, I think, I don't know, that I would pay attention to a team of the college kids and young guys next year. That '23 draft is supposed to be deep, so if we're playing youngsters and getting beaten, there might be a decent chance of drafting game changing players 2 years in a row. This year's pick will be top 7 at least. I would keep Couturier, of the high-priced older guys mentioned. Even though since he's been feeling better Hayes has not been the black hole he was earlier this season, he and the rest of the big contract older guys can be waived for all I care. I would like to see a team with some speed that plays with a little hate. Guys like Laczynski, N, Cates, Brink, Ol'Forrester, Wisdom tick those boxes, ice a team with those guys maybe a healthy Allison and Ratcliffe. At least there would be the illusion of hope. It is hard to see where the cap space necessary to afford a high impact star player can be generated. Then how does that big name player get lured into signing an extension? The immediate future seems bleak from my chair. I do think with the right moves the team can be more interesting to watch, and the way the contracts are structured perhaps a good team can get better via attrition and a good atmosphere to play in. Right now those ideas seem like a fever dream. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post elmatus Posted March 31, 2022 Popular Post Share Posted March 31, 2022 47 minutes ago, Howie58 said: Hayes' contract is more bothersome in my mind. It's really a shame this particular outcome wasn't entirely and completely obvious from the moment it was signed. 2 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ruxpin Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 18 minutes ago, elmatus said: It's really a shame this particular outcome wasn't entirely and completely obvious from the moment it was signed. Right?! I mean, who knew? 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FD19372 Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 So, this begs the question, what other tools can they hire besides Clarke, Holmgren and Fletcher? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pilldoc Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 22 minutes ago, FD19372 said: So, this begs the question, what other tools can they hire besides Clarke, Holmgren and Fletcher? you mean what fools they could hire… (FIFY) … but yeah I get your point 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FD19372 Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 15 minutes ago, pilldoc said: you mean what fools they could hire… (FIFY) … but yeah I get your point Tools, fools…they qualify as both. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Howie58 Posted March 31, 2022 Author Share Posted March 31, 2022 Sam Hinkie was hated and eventually fired, but he did bring in some good picks. We need some good first rounders in coming years. I would prefer David Poile or Bill Zito as GM. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radoran Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 1 hour ago, mojo1917 said: It is hard to see where the cap space necessary to afford a high impact star player can be generated. Then how does that big name player get lured into signing an extension? It's that when they have cap money they spend it like a drunken sailor on his first shore leave in nine months. Whatever the biggest, shiniest thing they see in front of them right then and there is what they want more than anything else. The thought of banking some of it and being open as a place where if some UFA/trade opportunity presents itself never occurs to them. Because the definitely a playoff team only needs two or three moves and they can be right there in mix to make the playoffs and then *say it with me now* anything can happen! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewin Flames Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 If you don't think hart has been completely ruined, who are the untouchables, if any, then go from there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mojo1917 Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 37 minutes ago, radoran said: Because the definitely a playoff team only needs two or three moves and they can be right there in mix to make the playoffs and then *say it with me now* anything can happen! I've said it elsewhere, it gets a lot of negative play in this forum but there is a kernel of truth to it. That's not saying the goal should be to build a team that "just squeaks into the tournament" either. Looking back I can't say with certainty that there was a "go for it" moment post Chris Pronger. That's many years of icing players that knew they weren't good enough for a deep run. I don't see where a magic wand is waved and the team is challenging for a title next year. I can see where things can be done to improve the roster and the way the team plays, then try to build upon that momentum. At some point the analytics and scouting should begin to bear fruit in both acquisition and development of talent at least from a stand point of being evidence based rather than relying on the eye test. Then there's the coaching situation. I don't have high hopes there either. I don't think Fletcher will be allowed an off the board style hire. Even though I think that's what's required. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Howie58 Posted March 31, 2022 Author Share Posted March 31, 2022 My only concern "psychologically," is that Flyer leadership looks back at 2007-08 as a model and says, "we had a really bad 2006-07 and made some trades and voila, we had ECF Final against the Pens." My problem is that there was no sustained core from that group or the subsequent SCF group (heck, that was blown up/traded). With Homer and others still around, they might see a quick fix as OK. That was still the transition period from the non-salary cap. This is a new era. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flyer4ever Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 Is there any reason in Chuckles tenure here to believe that the Flyers will improve anytime prior to him being relieved of his duties? I say nay nay. Unless he is being very sly and trying to bottom out next year for Connor Bedard. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flyercanuck Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 12 minutes ago, flyer4ever said: Is there any reason in Chuckles tenure here to believe that the Flyers will improve anytime prior to him being relieved of his duties? I say nay nay. Unless he is being very sly and trying to bottom out next year for Connor Bedard. There is nothing in his history of being a GM that says he has the shrewdness to pull that off. I could see him trading the Flyers 1st next year for Ryan Suter...and then the Flyers pick being the lottery winner. That would have Chuckie written all over it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radoran Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 3 hours ago, mojo1917 said: Looking back I can't say with certainty that there was a "go for it" moment post Chris Pronger. That's many years of icing players that knew they weren't good enough for a deep run. That's just not at all how the organization* carried itself then and still does. I like a lot of what is in the system. I'd be on board with seeing how they come together. But you just know that the spend to the cap for best player available phillyosophy is going to rear it's ugly head... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flyer4ever Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 34 minutes ago, radoran said: That's just not at all how the organization* carried itself then and still does. I like a lot of what is in the system. I'd be on board with seeing how they come together. But you just know that the spend to the cap for best player available phillyosophy is going to rear it's ugly head... And theres the problem. Clarke and Homer's BPA scale is arrogantly, stubbornly ignorantly different than the reality scale. Always has been. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mojo1917 Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 1 hour ago, flyer4ever said: Is there any reason in Chuckles tenure here to believe that the Flyers will improve anytime prior to him being relieved of his duties? I say nay nay. Unless he is being very sly and trying to bottom out next year for Connor Bedard. From where the team is now? Oh, most certainly. All he has to do is get Couturier back on the ice and they're better. Now would be the time to bottom out though, like I said play the young NCAA players. It seems to me that there are 25 3rd liners in the system, just throw the middle talent at the opposition in waves. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mojo1917 Posted March 31, 2022 Share Posted March 31, 2022 1 hour ago, flyercanuck said: I could see him trading the Flyers 1st next year for Ryan Suter...and then the Flyers pick being the lottery winner. That would have Chuckie written all over it. No you can't. Just stop it with this -lest you manifest it by speaking it into existence. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flyercanuck Posted April 1, 2022 Share Posted April 1, 2022 9 hours ago, mojo1917 said: No you can't. Just stop it with this -lest you manifest it by speaking it into existence. Fletcher doesn't need any manifesting, he's made a career of throwing away draft picks for not so good players. He's been here for 3 drafts and he's already traded a 1st, and 3-2nds plus a bunch of lower picks. He's like a dumber Paul Holmgren. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GratefulFlyers Posted April 1, 2022 Share Posted April 1, 2022 (edited) On 3/31/2022 at 11:30 AM, Howie58 said: Candidly, Hayes' contract is more bothersome in my mind. With Ellis--as I've said before, I hope we don't have another Mike Rathje on our hands. Yeah Hayes will play good enough to justify paying him a solid $4 - $4.5 mil per year. The problem is….yeah enough said. Supposedly he’s well liked for whatever that’s worth. As to Ellis I’m afraid we’ve already got a Rathje situation on our hands. Until he plays the games, stays in the lineup night in night out he’s not even another Rathje or a Hatcher. Those guys, broken down as they were, still managed to play some games for the Flyers. Edited April 1, 2022 by GratefulFlyers 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GratefulFlyers Posted April 2, 2022 Share Posted April 2, 2022 On 3/31/2022 at 3:01 PM, mojo1917 said: I don't think Fletcher will be allowed an off the board style hire. Even though I think that's what's required. Your post made a lot of sense to me until this, where I don’t follow you. What exactly is an “off the board” HC? I tend to think the new Giroux-less Flyers could benefit more from a tried and true professional, a guy with many NHL games, and NHL PO games on his resume. Without looking who’s available or who’s likely to be I can’t offer any names. But in general I’d stay away from any kind of experiment regarding the coaching staff. If that’s what you meant by “off the board,” the Flyers tried that a few times already with only limited success. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OccamsRazor Posted April 2, 2022 Share Posted April 2, 2022 On 3/31/2022 at 11:30 AM, Howie58 said: Here's a take on the "Aggressive Tool" FIFY Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mojo1917 Posted April 2, 2022 Share Posted April 2, 2022 (edited) @GratefulFlyers By off the board I mean "not a name". @OccamsRazor mentioned the a guy from the NCAA and USHL, Mike Hastings. He has been successful at Minnesota State and would bring energy and a good resume of teaching winning developmental hockey. He is not really off the board, he will most likely coach in the NHL someday. He would have a plan and would not be from the good ol' boy network. He and Fletcher could set a course and build a program. Even though I would love to see John Tortorella v Philly beat writers, he has a set expiration date and I think would be too much side show, not enough forward thinking. Alain Vigneault was/is a big name successful NHL coach. He couldn't build on his first season's results. I don't think a retread NHL guy is what is needed. I think the hire should be a successful major junior coach or a similar developmental league. I am also 75% confident senior advisors don't see it my way either. I'm fully prepared for the Paul Maurice experience, which will most likely escalate my waning interest in the team. Edited April 2, 2022 by mojo1917 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mojo1917 Posted April 2, 2022 Share Posted April 2, 2022 40 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said: FIFY Aggressive Tool? Jambi You're welcome 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ruxpin Posted April 2, 2022 Share Posted April 2, 2022 (edited) 8 hours ago, GratefulFlyers said: Flyers could benefit more from a tried and true professional, a guy with many NHL games, and NHL PO games on his resume. Without looking who’s available or who’s likely to be I can’t offer any names So, Alain Vigneault? Edited April 2, 2022 by ruxpin 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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