Is Mason the weak link on this team?

[brelic]

Article from BR, which does raise an interesting point if only statistically.

http://bit.ly/1or62Iw

 

Here's the interesting part:

 

What is worth worrying about is the likelihood that for all that Mason’s numbers have improved, he’s still the same kind of goalie he was on all those Blue Jackets teams that followed that first playoff series.

 

Back in December, impressed by Mason’s dramatic turnaround in Philadelphia, we went looking for historic examples of NHL goaltenders who had managed to improve to the same degree at around the same age. After looking at every season since the NHL started recording save percentage, this is what we found:

 

In other words, from the data we have, no goalie has managed to pull off the kind of transformation Mason did and use it as a springboard for improved play down the line. … The most likely outcome is that Steve Mason goes back to being the fringe NHLer he was when the Flyers acquired him.

 

At the time of that assessment, Mason had a 0.932 save percentage for Philadelphia, in sharp contrast to the 0.905 number he had posted in his five prior seasons. In the 37 games since, he’s been a 0.906 save percentage goalie. It seems likely that his hot start was an aberration, and that he’s back to being the same goalie he was in Columbus.

 

And the thought of that should terrify the people making decisions in Philly.

 

 

 

What do you think? Is he going to be the sole exception to the rule? Or did we really just sign a guy who had a hot start to a $4M+ contract who is really a .905 kind of guy?

 

 

 

[Commander Clueless]

The goalie being Philly's weak link? Whoa. Say it ain't so!

 

No but traditional Philly-based jabs aside, Mason's play for the Flyers has been in stark contrast to his post-early play for the Jackets. This is the second time he's demonstrated that he can play at a high level, so who knows? I don't think it's unrealistic to say he will stay at his current level, but would anyone be surprised if he reverted back to his old form?

 

 

Tell you what though, if he falters the Leafs will trade you Bernier. But only if you take the rest of the team too.

[flyercanuck]

@brelic

 

 Mason has a great skillset as a goalie. He's got size, athletic ability. Whether he becomes an "elite" goalie, only time will tell. But at least there's upside there. It's better than getting yet another goalie on the downswing, who isn't any better.

[flyercanuck]

@CC

 

 LOL. Good one!

[brelic]

@brelic

 

 Mason has a great skillset as a goalie. He's got size, athletic ability. Whether he becomes an "elite" goalie, only time will tell. But at least there's upside there. It's better than getting yet another goalie on the downswing, who isn't any better.

 

I didn't watch a single game of his in Columbus (that I can remember), so I can really only go on statistics. The reversion to his 'norm' is a little unsettling if only because it means we overpaid for a mediocre goalie. Not a terrible overpayment, mind you.

 

In any case, I'm not trying to be negative. I like Mason, I want him to succeed. When I saw those statistics, though, I got a bit of a reality check that he's more than likely going to be the goalie of the last 4 seasons.

[sekkes85]

I think overall he has shown he is worth the contract.  He has made saves that any other year would have gone in on a Flyers goalie.  He has kept us in game in more games than cost us.  He has a couple years to prove he is the guy before Stolarz comes knocking at the door wanting his shot with the big club.  If he proves he is the goalie we have all hoped and wanted, great!  We will ship Stolarz out for draft picks/prospects (i.e. Bernier).  If not, well he will most likely get an opportunity somewhere and at the very least be a very good backup and we give Stolarz a roll of the dice.

[flyerrod]

He stops more of the goals that he should moreso than any goalie here pretty much since Hextall and Vanbiesbrouk. Although he lets in an occasional bad goal, he more than makes up for it with some amazing saves usually on the same night. Do I think he is Marty Brodeur or Henrik Lundqvist? No, but he is not Leighton or Bryzgalov either. Mason at least has the potential to be the next Parent, something fans have not seen in Philadelphia for a long time....

[brelic]

@sekkes85

@flyerrod

 

Maybe our recent experiences are so traumatic (Leighton, Bryz) that a regular goalie seems like a saviour!

 

I agree, when I watch him, he makes some excellent saves. Some nights, he makes spectacular saves. But statistics have no agenda. I'm assuming by the "last 37 games" the author means the last 37 games Mason has played? That would mean he posted .932 in his first 20, and then .905 in his next 37. 

 

Just looking at his monthly splits, the picture is a lot brighter than the article would suggest.

 

Oct - .928

Nov - .938

Dec - .899

Jan - .889

Feb - .938

Mar - .917

 

So really, it was two bad months out of six. In those two months, he played 22 games, which is not an insignificant amount. Still, the other months are a wild swing in the other direction, showing that he can play at a high level for a sustained period of time. 

 

Maybe it *is* in him, and he's still finding a way to battle through inconsistencies and low periods.

[radoran]

Just looking at his monthly splits, the picture is a lot brighter than the article would suggest.

 

Putting my usual advocate's horns on...

 

His "pre-Olympics" GAA/SV% (43 starts, 44 appearances) was 2.49/.918

 

Believe your lying eyes or not, his "post-Olympics" (12 starts) GAA/SV% is 2.66/.910

 

In those 12 starts he's had six games where he was .900 SV% or less. Also the six games he's given up 3 or more  He's 3-3.

 

And I think that record is really the story with Mason. He doesn't give up back breaking goals with regularity. He's positionally sound. And he has the ability to make big saves. And he wins or loses with his team (5-1 in games giving up 2 or less).

 

Just giving a touch a stability back there can go miles with a team - and it really has. And it really seems like there's a good collegial atmosphere of mutual support in the locker room.

[brelic]

And I think that record is really the story with Mason. He doesn't give up back breaking goals with regularity. He's positionally sound. And he has the ability to make big saves. And he wins or loses with his team (5-1 in games giving up 2 or less).

 

Which seems about right. We all knew that he wasn't a Lundqvist or a Quick who can win games by himself. Mason has definitely stolen a few games, but it's not something he has done with regularity this year. He played great in early season losses, but they were still losses. 

 

So, if the team plays well and is committed to defense, he can probably sustain his .916 that he has this year, which matches his rookie year.

[JackStraw]

Overall I would say that Mason has been the Flyers second best player this year, after Giroux. So no, I don't think he's the weak link.

[Samifan]

Overall I would say that Mason has been the Flyers second best player this year, after Giroux. So no, I don't think he's the weak link.

I may throw Simmonds in ahead of Mason.

[JackStraw]

I may throw Simmonds in ahead of Mason.

 

I would put Simmonds in the top 5. He's been great but I'd say Mason has had a bigger impact over the course of the year. I'd probably put Couturier ahead of Simmonds also, but that might be about it.

[murraycraven]

I would put Simmonds in the top 5. He's been great but I'd say Mason has had a bigger impact over the course of the year. I'd probably put Couturier ahead of Simmonds also, but that might be about it.

 

 

Giroux

Simmonds

Mason

Cooter:  Honorable Mention

 

The Flyers 3 MVPs for the year...  Mason is not a concern of mine honestly.  

[Howie58]

Howdy:

 

I read this piece on BR and the comments posted afterwards were viciously negative, basically contending the author was an idiot. 

 

Mason, like the rest of this team, is an experiment. It will be game 20 of the 14-15 Season before we can answer the question. But that applies to the whole team. We would like to think that the addition of a sniper + some other defenders will bring us to elite status.  I would like to see Mason grow with the team. He is a work in progress. 

 

Howie

[Mad Dog]

The title of this thread looks very symbolic, doesn't it?  Flyers goalie?  A weak link?  lol  Where have we heard this before?

 

But seriously, no, I don't think he is.  The Flyers could have done much worse than going into the playoffs with Mason.  This is be the biggest and most important spring of his career without a doubt.  I think this spring will define his status in this league for many years to come.  My concern is not Mason, but the Flyers defense.  And his performance and stats will get skewed as a result of inconsistent defense paying in front of him.  But it all depends who the Flyers draw in the first round, 

[brelic]

Howdy:

 

I read this piece on BR and the comments posted afterwards were viciously negative, basically contending the author was an idiot. 

 

Mason, like the rest of this team, is an experiment. It will be game 20 of the 14-15 Season before we can answer the question. But that applies to the whole team. We would like to think that the addition of a sniper + some other defenders will bring us to elite status.  I would like to see Mason grow with the team. He is a work in progress. 

 

Howie

 

Internet comments can be punishing, can't they? Scares me sometimes.

 

Mason is only 25, and goalies typically need more time before they hit their peak, so there's definitely room for growth. It sounds like you are not sold on Mason either, but understand that more time is needed to make a true assessment. What other goalie comparables are out there in terms of career trajectory? Do you think Mason is on a typical growth curve? How much of his 'bad' years can be attributed to coaching or the poor team in front of him? How much of an effect do you think Hitchcock had while he was coach during Mason's rookie year?

[canoli]

For me this is a case of numbers being meaningless to the story. I don't mean to knock your post Brel, not at all. I'm just saying the numbers by themselves don't tell us anything worth knowing. Because even though on paper he's average "the story" is the team right? How they play in front of him? It's getting harder to think negatively about Mason, despite his so-so numbers when we see the Flyers consistently defend their net. That tells me the team not only enjoys playing in front of him but that they know they can win with him, which is a pretty big contrast to what we usually get from Flyers' goaltending.

 

Berube deserves credit for the structure he put into their game. He's got them working something like a mix of Open-It-Up vs. Backcheck-Or-Sit. Apparently he likes the stretch pass, he wants quick outs and transitions. But he's also got the forwards buying into their defensive responsibilities and keeping the gap manageable. Hell even Vinny is backchecking. Berube has our D-men looking (and playing) like actual NHL defenders. Mason's strengths mesh perfectly with what Berube wants; he's exactly the kind of goalie the Flyers need now. Given the way Homer and Ed managed things with Bob/Bryzaster I don't think we could've done better than Mason.

 

He may not have great numbers (how about Emery's?) but what matters is whether goaltending still costs the Flyers wins. It doesn't. Now at least we can say when the Flyers lose it probably wasn't because of goaltending...lord what a relief...finally!

[brelic]

For me this is a case of numbers being meaningless to the story. I don't mean to knock your post Brel, not at all. I'm just saying the numbers by themselves don't tell us anything worth knowing. Because even though on paper he's average "the story" is the team right? How they play in front of him? It's getting harder to think negatively about Mason, despite his so-so numbers when we see the Flyers consistently defend their net. That tells me the team not only enjoys playing in front of him but that they know they can win with him, which is a pretty big contrast to what we usually get from Flyers' goaltending.

 

At the end of the day, there's only one question that matters: Is Mason good enough to win with? We only have a small sample, but I would say yes. In other words, he likely wouldn't be the reason we falter. Rad said it best that Mason goes as the team goes, which means that he probably won't win a series on his own either. The entire team needs to be playing as it is now and not like it was in October / November. In that environment, as a team unit, Mason can thrive. 

 

 

 

He may not have great numbers (how about Emery's?) but what matters is whether goaltending still costs the Flyers wins. It doesn't. Now at least we can say when the Flyers lose it probably wasn't because of goaltending...lord what a relief...finally!

 

Exactly! I mentioned in another post that we've been shell shocked by the goaltending situation over the past few years - Leighton, Bryz, then giving away Bob and seeing him win the Vezina. Just a bad situation all around. It's nice to see our goalie in a positive light for a change!

 

PS - As a side note, I was at the Rangers/Flyers game last week. First time at MSG, and I got treated to a terrible Flyers outing and a very shaky Mason!! His out-of-net adventures reminded me of Boosh and Leighton. I cringed every time those guys left the net to play the puck.

[Howie58]

Internet comments can be punishing, can't they? Scares me sometimes.

 

Mason is only 25, and goalies typically need more time before they hit their peak, so there's definitely room for growth. It sounds like you are not sold on Mason either, but understand that more time is needed to make a true assessment. What other goalie comparables are out there in terms of career trajectory? Do you think Mason is on a typical growth curve? How much of his 'bad' years can be attributed to coaching or the poor team in front of him? How much of an effect do you think Hitchcock had while he was coach during Mason's rookie year?

Bre:

 

I hope that Mason is a little like Craig Anderson.  He took some time to blossom, and if he isn't elite he is certainly damn good.  For the team, my concern is more generic. Is this really the beginning of a new era in which we are a year or two from elite status challenging for Cup? Or is this another head fake like 2010 where we think it's a new era and an in reality we just wallow in mediocrity?  I am hopeful but skeptical.

 

Peace,

 

Howie

[fanaticV3.0]

Bre:

 

I hope that Mason is a little like Craig Anderson.  He took some time to blossom, and if he isn't elite he is certainly damn good.  For the team, my concern is more generic. Is this really the beginning of a new era in which we are a year or two from elite status challenging for Cup? Or is this another head fake like 2010 where we think it's a new era and an in reality we just wallow in mediocrity?  I am hopeful but skeptical.

 

Peace,

 

Howie

 

I see no reason to be at this point. With that team there was signs that there were problems even during that Cup run. That season was one of the most bizarre things I've ever witnessed. It was an example of both what happens when you work hard and flying by the seat of your pants.

 

I agree that even if Mason isn't elite, I don't care as long as he's good.

[Poulin20]

 

I agree that even if Mason isn't elite, I don't care as long as he's good.

 

Exactly...the Red Wings have been doing this for years.  Case in point, Mike Vernon is a Stanley Cup Champ (as we know sadly) as is Chris Osgood.

Edited April 3, 2014 by Poulin20

[Howie58]

Fanatic:

 

One thing I don't worry about with Mason is his willingness to accept responsibility for his work and performance. That is important. 

 

He is worth investing in.  I suspect the next question for goal is backup. If Ray is gone, whom do we turn to? A vet? A kid?  I would like to see us groom our own for a change.

 

Peace,

 

Howie

[brelic]

I would like to see us groom our own for a change.

 

Me too. See what this kid Heeter has while Stolarz grows his game in the AHL. 

 

Heeter has decent numbers (2.69, .911) on a bad Phantoms team. 

[CoachX]

Since 1967, 14 of the 46 league MVP's were goalies. Three of those lost in the SC finals, leaving 11 MVP cup winners who played the position. Only 5 of those SC winners have been elected to the Hall of Fame. A few names that have not won the MVP, Grant Fuhr, Ed Belfour and Martin Brodeur. When I look over the list without breaking down stats or team strengths, I see names like Cam Ward, Tim Thomas, Khabibulin, J.S Giguere, and Chris Osgood.

 

Not counting the obvious HOF members, some of these guys were considered "Elite". I really dont see why Steve Mason can't be as good as any of those in the right situation