NHL - Week 27 of 28

Flyers What If?

The Flyers What If table presents playoff probabilities depended upon how the Flyers play future games. These games include either the next game or all remaining games. Other unplayed future games are assumed won/lost with a probability based upon relative team strengths.

Because I am bored .... it is amazing what you can google ....

http://www.playoffstatus.com/nhl/flyerseliminate.html

NHL - Week 27 of 28

Flyers Playoff Spot Elimination Options

This Elimination Options page presents sets of game outcomes ("cases") that result in the Flyers losing certain playoff spots. A total of 15 games from week 27 were considered. The list may not contain all possible combinations. When a given set of games eliminates multiple playoff spots the case is listed in the lowest playoff spot only.

31 minutes ago, jammer2 said:

Its the Flyers...they will win all 3 remaining games and just miss out.

You are correct…. As I type the Flyers are up 3-1 vs Rags.

If everything fell the Flyers way (losing last 3 games) .. teams ahead of them needing to win the appropriate number of games the very best the Flyers could draft would he #8. 

1 hour ago, jammer2 said:

My understanding is you can't move up more than 4 picks...thought I heard that, could be wrong. 

53 minutes ago, flyercanuck said:

 

You can move up 10 spots, I don't think there's any chance of getting Celebrini.

From Tankathon .....

https://www.tankathon.com/nhl

Determining the NHL Draft Order:

1) All teams missing the playoffs are in the Lottery

2)Teams with the least points get more chances at winning the Lottery

3) The 1st overall pick is awarded by a drawing of ping pong balls. A team can only jump ten spots, so only the top 11 teams are eligible for the 1st pick. If a team in the 12-16 range wins the first drawing, the first pick will be awarded to the worst team. The 12-16 seed team that won the first drawing is also locked into their new position.

4) A second drawing is held to determine the other lottery winner. Like the first drawing, the second winner can only jump ten spots, but this time it is using the re-seeded order following the first drawing. This second drawing will not affect the team(s) with locked-in positions from the first drawing. If a ten spot jump is to a pick that is already locked-in, this team will receive the next available pick.

5) Teams are only allowed to improve their positioning via the Lottery twice in a five year period (beginning with the 2022 Lottery).

6)Ties are broken by teams' total number of regulation wins (RW), regulation and non-shootout overtime wins (ROW), and then head-to-head if still tied

7) Playoff teams that did not win their divisions and did not make the conference finals, sorted by points, are assigned the next picks

8 ) Playoff teams that won their divisions and did not make the conference finals, sorted by points, are assigned the next picks

9) Conference finals losers sorted by points are assigned picks 29 and 30

10)Stanley Cup runner-up is assigned pick 31

11)Stanley Cup champion is assigned pick 32

12) Note: This site uses points percentage instead of points to account for different number of games played between teams

As of now it is impossible for the Flyers to get the #1 overall pick. 

Here are the players potential available at #12 IF the Flyers finish were they currently are ...

2 hours ago, RonJeremy said:

Drysdale was a -6, that re-signing and Gauthier trade are looking like some great moves.

Applaud the effort made by the FO ... Cutter made it known loud and clear to the Flyers top brass he did not want to play for the Flyers.  It was an attempt to at least "try" to get a player before Cutter walked and the Flyers got nothing in return.

As I said ... I backed the move at the time (he was a #6 overall pick by the Ducks in 2020) His draft year scouting report gushed over him....

"What stands out about Drysdale? First thing that jumps out is his speed. He can recover from almost any situation by getting back on defense if the puck goes the other way. He doesn’t have the size yet, but he uses his hands and stick to disrupt his opponents. The number of turnovers he created by stick checking was absurd.

When he wasn’t frustrating opponents, he was creating offense from any zone. Whether it was the first pass out or his acceleration into the opponent’s zone, Drysdale always has offense on his mind. He’s not afraid to shoot when given the chance. But he can make plays even when there’s not much room to work with. He made the Otters dangerous on the rush.

It’s hard to find faults in Drysdale’s game as it’s a bit nitpicky. But in seeing enough of him this season, two things do stand out. He can miss the net in bunches especially on the power play. This has led to odd-man rushes the other way. He needs to get his shot on net more to create havoc around the net. He also needs to choose his battles more carefully. He tends to be aggressive and sometimes it costs him. Opponents at the next level will feast on that aggressiveness. When he’s in control and makes the right reads, he’s usually the best player on the ice.

In the end, the good far outweigh the bad. Whoever lands Drysdale will not only get an elite player, but they’ll get a great leader and someone of very high character. He is one of the genuinely nice guys in the entire OHL. He brings the total package on and off the ice."

"Drysdale’s potential at the next level is sky high. He can be both a shutdown defender on your top pair and your power-play quarterback for the next decade. Players like this only become available at the draft."

In retrospect, I had NO idea how injury prone he has become.   He still is only 22 so there is room for development and growth .....  I do admit his injuries are concerning.

I'm not throwing him to the sharks yet nor am I going to overly criticize the FO for this move .....  In the end Cutter simply was determined not to play for the Flyers.

Drysdale at the time seemed like a great consolation prize.

Time will tell ......

2 minutes ago, AlaskaFlyerFan said:

The comeback is on!  Only 5 goals down wit 2:30 to go!

Spoke too soon…. Only down by 2 FG’s now

3 minutes ago, ruxpin said:

Was definitely worth pissing away a fourth round pick for all this winning, eh?

Funny I was chastised voicing my opinion against this move .....

This team flat out quit in the 2nd period .......

2 hours ago, Howie58 said:

Greetings:

I remember this board's reaction to the signing...why four years?  I think he will be paid a lot in coming years for manning the popcorn machine.  This is another magnificent contribution of the Fletcher Legacy. .  . . yeah, baby!

Bingo!

@flyercanuck

Totally agree with your post here and in the  Sabres game thread.  Simply put, the flyers can't be constructed as TK as your best player. TK would be a fine 2nd line player for a contending team. Eventually I knew Coots was going to hit the wall. This roster is not good so I don't know why fans and the front office got so hell bent on making the playoffs or winning a PO series. Yes this season was far more enjoyable. But it's nowhere close and true fans know that.

If missing the playoffs is what it takes for the leadership triumvirate to keep their eye on the ball and realize that this team is not good enough, then good. Even if that means moving TK. (And I like TK) The Flyers do not have the high-end offensive skill, nor the depth along the blueline to compete and be a playoff team. They simply don't. 

As much as it would  pain me to trade away TK, you do it simply to hopefully obtain draft assets and or younger players.  Right now the Flyers do not have a "contention window". They would have to actually make enough quality draft picks and trades to have such a window installed in their house, let alone have it be open for contention. 

That window will open once there’s a clear elite scorer (hopefully Mitchkov), elite center (might have been Gautier but now no one in the system), elite d-man (none in system), and a reliable top-15 goalie (almost certainly not Carter Hart now, if he ever was going to be one .. could that be Fedotov? ...sample size is way too small at this time).

So yeah .... I am totally open to moving TK after the season. He's gonna be 28 when due a extension. He's going to command, I believe around 9+ million/yr. And probably longterm too. Do the Flyers really wanna spend that much on the Cap knowing you have so many young natural RWs Forester, Tippett, Michkov, yeah Forester can play LW I believe.  That is why I am willing to move him now.  TK surely could get you into the top if not a legit prospect.  Look I could be totally wrong here in this assessment but it is obviously what the Flyers have been doing for the past 3 decades simply is not working ....

Losing Cutter hurt  ... not worth the headache he was going to bring but it still hurts nonetheless.

Finally ... FWIW ....Johnson is -12 in his limited time with the Flyers.  Think about that ......

@Math @yave1964  @Jagged Ice @Mad Dog @Hale @bbgarnett @hf101
@TropicalFruitGirl26 @Ladyneat @J0e Th0rnton @ruxpin @Brewin Flames @molonosoff

Good Morning,

First of all I would like to thank everyone for a tremendous FHL season.  It has been an exciting year.  The final playoff spot was decided on the last day of the regular season.  It is also great seeing new blood in the semi-finals this year.  Congrats to @Math for winning the President's Cup this year.  What an absolutely fantastic season!  Good Luck to the Final Four GM's as we begin finishing up the season.

With that being said,

Now to pass on the news that is the real intent of this post.  After giving it much thought and consideration over the past few weeks, once this season concludes, I have made the painful decision to step down as the League Commissioner for the HF.net Sweet 16 FHL.  In addition, for the time being, I will also not be participating in the the Sweet 16 FHL next year as a GM.

Rest assure, this painful decision was not taken lightly.  I enjoy the sincere friendships I have with many of you on here.  I have been competing against most of you for almost a decade now.  It has been a blast.

As I mentioned to a few of you privately, I simply do not have the time right now to fully commit to this League.  Due to such a busy home and work life right now, I am missing out on starting players and goalies.  I don't have the time available to really research players in order to make my team better, as I have done in years past.  Its not fair to me, its not fair to my opponent, and it certainly is not fair for this League. 

I have been a part of this League and League Commish for nearly 10 years now and and as much as it pains me for stating this, but for the time being, I feel I need to step away for a bit.  Again, this was an issue I wrestled with myself for several weeks now.  Simply put, this was not an easy decision to make.

Rest assured, for those whom I compete with in NAHANA, I will remain an active GM in that League.  However, for the time being, I simply cannot devote the time or energy for 2 FHL's right now and I had to make a choice.  For me the choice was clear to stay active in NAHANA for the foreseeable future.

Therefore, effective May 1st, I am looking for a volunteer who would like to take over the reigns as the Sweet 16 FHL League Commish.  I can certainly help answer any and all questions to provide a smooth transition.  I also have a list of all GM's both past and present along with their e-mail address's which I can forward to the new League Commish.

Thank You everyone for your understanding,

Best,

~doc

HF.net Manager

HF.net Sweet 16 FHL soon to be former League Commish

4 hours ago, Math said:

 

I have to admit, I freaked a bit when I saw you sneaking in. The score is misleading, you were still sniffing my heels before the week-end and it remained pretty close in every category. That was a great match-up with tremendous performances of both Luukkonen and Georgiev lol.

Nah ... the score was closer than it really was.  I just barely snuck into the playoff.  You have had a tremendous season. Congrats on the win.  Best of luck moving forward.

Keep him away from sports betting and fast cars ..... (too soon)  

54 minutes ago, Cheesesteak said:

What caveats, we have to send Russia all our 2nd round draft picks for the next 10 years??  

Lol …. Well played!

4 hours ago, Math said:

Well, it's play-off time. I unexpectedly finished first and as a fellow Stars fan, the table is perfectly set for the traditional play-off choke lol.

 

Good success to anyone, let's get it on !

does that mean I get the upset win

Thanks for posting .... what a shame.  

2 hours ago, flyercanuck said:

And here we are, wasting away again in Mediocreville, (sing it with me) searching for my lost draft pick and salt 

Brilliant and sadly right on point….

1 hour ago, ruxpin said:

@BobbyClarkeFan16

 

Except the mouth-breathers (NTTAWWT) on the Flyers' Facebook page.

They are a bunch of buffoons….

@Poulin20

Glad to see you back around these parts. You are not wrong in your thoughts and opinions.  The one thing I have learned over the past few years is that family comes first. I’m no longer overly involved emotionally with this team.  Again…. Glad to see you back.

~doc

This move is just rearraging the deck chairs ......

https://www.nhl.com/flyers/news/flyers-acquire-erik-johnson-from-buffalo-in-exchange-for-a-fourth-round-2024-nhl-draft-pick

The Philadelphia Flyers today announced the club has acquired defenseman Erik Johnson from Buffalo in exchange for the Flyers’ fourth-round selection in the 2024 NHL Draft, according to General Manager Daniel Briere.

Johnson, 35 (3/21/88), collected three goals, 24 penalty minutes in 50 games with Buffalo this season. The 6-foot-4, 225-pound native of Bloomington, Minn., led the Sabres in shorthanded time on ice (152:31) and in shorthanded TOI/game (3:03) and ranked sixth in hits (93) and blocked shots (68). The right-shot blueliner has 340 points (91-249=340), 538 PIM in 970 career NHL games in 17 NHL seasons (2007-08, 2009-24) with St. Louis, Colorado and Buffalo. He won the 2021-22 Stanley Cup with the Avalanche and served as an alternate captain for six seasons with Colorado and for one season with the Blues. He ranks 13th among active NHL defensemen since 2007-08 in blocked shots (1,662), 15th in shots (1,907), T-16th in hits (1,586) and 17th in games played. He was originally selected by the Blues, first overall, of the 2006 NHL Draft.

Internationally, Johnson represented the United States at the 2006 and 2007 IIHF World Junior

Championships. He led all defensemen in the 2007 tournament in goals (4), assists (6) and points (11) and was named the best defenseman at the tournament and named to the WJC All-Star Team.

The Philadelphia Flyers are trading forward Wade Allison to the Nashville Predators in exchange for forward Denis Gurianov.

The trade was first reported by Anthony Di Marco of The Fourth Period.

Allison, 26, was drafted by the Flyers (52nd overall) in 2016.

He has spent the entire 2023-24 season in the AHL with the Lehigh Valley Phantoms, recording 10 goals and seven assists in 46 games.

Across 75 career NHL games with Philadelphia spanning three seasons, Allison has 13 goals and nine assists.

Gurianov, 26, has split this season between the Predators and their AHL affiliate, the Milwaukee Admirals. In 14 games with Nashville, Gurianov recorded one goal and one assist. With Milwaukee, he had 12 goals and 18 assists over 27 games.

Across 294 career NHL games with the Dallas Stars, Montreal Canadiens, and Predators, Gurianov has accumulated 52 goals and 61 assists for a total of 113 points.

Its official .... (SMH)

https://www.prohockeyrumors.com/2024/03/buffalo-sabres-send-erik-johnson-to-philadelphia-flyers.html

3 minutes ago, FD19372 said:

I told you guys that somewhere, somehow, the Flyer ol’ boy network, still has some control.

Cross out America and insert Philadelphia Flyers ....

It gets passed on from GM to GM

6 minutes ago, ruxpin said:

11 minutes ago, GratefulFlyers said:

I know some will hate this move. Losing a pick for an old guy.

 

Put me in this column.    Dumb as hell.

Ditto .....  (as I raise my hand)