A Take on Ivan Provorov's Career Trajectory

[Howie58]

Greetings:

 

I saw this earlier today:

 

Flyers' Provorov Failing to Realize No. 1 Defenseman Potential (thehockeywriters.com)

 

Putting aside Ivan's supporting cast (hard to do), it's clear his numbers don't compare favorably to others in his draft cohort.  Some of us might have viewed him as a Norris candidate a few years ago.  That might not be the case today.  

 

Best,

 

Howie

[elmatus]

31 minutes ago, Howie58 said:

Putting aside Ivan's supporting cast (hard to do), it's clear his numbers don't compare favorably to others in his draft cohort.  Some of us might have viewed him as a Norris candidate a few years ago.  That might not be the case today.  

 

 

Yeah, I wouldn't say I'm giving up on him as a top dman in the NHL in the future, but I do think it's very fair to start asking more questions about it. He's young still, and the team is all kinds of bad all over -- both are fair points. At the same time, he really hasn't been any kind of bright spot either.

 

The writer of that article makes a very good point in that he has yet to show he can carry a top pairing. He played very well with Niskanen, and that's great, but then he's been really quite bad without him. That suggests he doesn't really have what it takes to be *the guy*, though he may be a solid complimentary guy to such a top dman. Obviously, a good team needs that type of complimentary piece too, but it remains a gap for us.

 

I don't think it's fair to rely on Ellis or any other veteran dman. Even if Ellis comes back at some point, and even if he manages to fill Niskanen's shoes to a decent extent, he's still not going to do that for the next whatever amount of years. At some point, Provo would need to show he's able to carry the top pair in the same way as others mentioned in that article (Hedman, McAvoy, Fox, etc). If he can't do that, we very likely need to find someone who can.

 

As with top level forwards of course, top dmen are also very rarely if ever traded until they're past their primes... It's very unlikely we get one in a trade or in FA. 

[flyercanuck]

40 minutes ago, Howie58 said:

Greetings:

 

I saw this earlier today:

 

Flyers' Provorov Failing to Realize No. 1 Defenseman Potential (thehockeywriters.com)

 

Putting aside Ivan's supporting cast (hard to do), it's clear his numbers don't compare favorably to others in his draft cohort.  Some of us might have viewed him as a Norris candidate a few years ago.  That might not be the case today.  

 

Best,

 

Howie

 

Provorov was certainly tracking toward becoming a legit #1 defenceman only a few short years ago. Then Flyers development took hold.

 

Same can be said for the development of  Sanheim/Myers/Ghost/Konecny. Now they're working on ruining Farabee and Frost.

[flyercanuck]

13 minutes ago, elmatus said:

If he can't do that, we very likely need to find someone who can.

 

As with top level forwards of course, top dmen are also very rarely if ever traded until they're past their primes... It's very unlikely we get one in a trade or in FA. 

 

And even less likely we draft and develop one. Provorov is the best the Flyers have done in that dept since the 70s. That's about as sad as it gets.

[elmatus]

8 minutes ago, flyercanuck said:

 

Provorov was certainly tracking toward becoming a legit #1 defenceman only a few short years ago. Then Flyers development took hold.

 

Same can be said for the development of  Sanheim/Myers/Ghost/Konecny. Now they're working on ruining Farabee and Frost.

 

Yeah, it's such a hard thing to peg down. There have been enough such players now that it seems very fair to start questioning what may be wrong about how the org develops players. At the same time, none of those guys were projected to be superstars either. As others often point out, they generally have had more success than many other players taken in their draft years. As fair as it is to question the org's development skills, it's also fair to suggest those guys never really had the skill set we might have wanted them to.

 

There is an awful tendency to overhype certain players because we want them to be something we need, rather than looking at them for what they truly are. If I were a betting man, I'd wager the truth is somewhere in the middle between the org's failings and our lofty expectations.

[Howie58]

17 minutes ago, elmatus said:

There is an awful tendency to overhype certain players because we want them to be something we need, rather than looking at them for what they truly are. If I were a betting man, I'd wager the truth is somewhere in the middle between the org's failings and our lofty expectations.

I wouldn't mind if we had a B+/A- D-man on our hands.  Provorov is a darn good player.  But I agree with FC and the author that he may not turn into the "Stud" D-man (using Marc Bergervin's term) that we hoped for.  So, we hope to build one from within, if that is possible.  

 

Writ large, I guess his arc is part of a bigger problem that we've discussed here forever--our draft picks haven't panned out as hoped.  Jeepers, what we are seeing at LVP doesn't inspire much hope.  What's strange--D and G were supposed to be our strengths, right?  

[OccamsRazor]

33 minutes ago, flyercanuck said:

 

And even less likely we draft and develop one. Provorov is the best the Flyers have done in that dept since the 70s. That's about as sad as it gets.

 

I'm honestly asking. Is it so bad if he is only a #2 is that failure??? I don't think so. I feel for the kid.

 

He could be suffering from Flyer syndrome. For real. I want to see Ellis with him before i can say fro sure...poor guy does need some help.

 

In fact you can trade every motherfcuker on this blueline and i won't bat an eye. For real.

 

Sure it goes without saying. But no i want to hang onto Ivan. I just do.

 

So glad Arizona took Strome.

 

The only guy i would have taken that they could have is Mikko Rantanen.

 

I think the kid is going to work out his issues. I have faith in him.

 

[Howie58]

10 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

I'm honestly asking. Is it so bad if he is only a #2 is that failure??? I don't think so. I feel for the kid.

 

He could be suffering from Flyer syndrome. For real. I want to see Ellis with him before i can say fro sure...poor guy does need some help.

 

In fact you can trade every motherfcuker on this blueline and i won't bat an eye. For real.

 

Sure it goes without saying. But no i want to hang onto Ivan. I just do.

 

So glad Arizona took Strome.

 

The only guy i would have taken that they could have is Mikko Rantanen.

 

I think the kid is going to work out his issues. I have faith in him.

 

Occ:

 

I would not trade him either, unless something really stupendous came along.  I posted the article because it is hard to argue that he hasn't panned out as planned.  

 

Yes, the organization may not be developmental, and frequent shifts of coach can't help.  Or, he may not be all that we hoped for. I think he is a keeper. 

 

I think it's sad that D and G have not panned out.  We thought Hextall would build from goal out.  Yes, we have Hart.  Then things get iffy.  

[flyercanuck]

1 hour ago, elmatus said:

 

Yeah, it's such a hard thing to peg down. There have been enough such players now that it seems very fair to start questioning what may be wrong about how the org develops players. At the same time, none of those guys were projected to be superstars either. As others often point out, they generally have had more success than many other players taken in their draft years. As fair as it is to question the org's development skills, it's also fair to suggest those guys never really had the skill set we might have wanted them to.

 

There is an awful tendency to overhype certain players because we want them to be something we need, rather than looking at them for what they truly are. If I were a betting man, I'd wager the truth is somewhere in the middle between the org's failings and our lofty expectations.

 

I don't think any of them were superstars either. And that's ok. 

 

I'm just looking at how they were coming along, all those players I mentioned were looking like we had a bright future ahead. And every one of them, to a man, has regressed. That's not drafting, that's development. 

[flyercanuck]

24 minutes ago, OccamsRazor said:

 

I'm honestly asking. Is it so bad if he is only a #2 is that failure??? I don't think so. I feel for the kid.

 

He could be suffering from Flyer syndrome. For real. I want to see Ellis with him before i can say fro sure...poor guy does need some help.

 

In fact you can trade every motherfcuker on this blueline and i won't bat an eye. For real.

 

Sure it goes without saying. But no i want to hang onto Ivan. I just do.

 

So glad Arizona took Strome.

 

The only guy i would have taken that they could have is Mikko Rantanen.

 

I think the kid is going to work out his issues. I have faith in him.

 

 

I'm still a Provorov fan. I still think he can be a very good player. But if they don't clean house in this org., then it will likely have to be somewhere else. Same with Konecny. And Sanheim. Look how good Farabee was coming along. 

 

 And just look what they've done to the Phantoms. You think that's a good environment for your prospects? Yuck.

[flyer4ever]

Wanna know how good he is? Trade him out of Dysfunction Junction.  I still think he can be a legit #1, but never in the current Flyer atmosphere. They have not provided him with a supporting cast that every great player needs. The constant drive for mediocrity has affected him like all the others.

[elmatus]

3 hours ago, flyercanuck said:

 

I don't think any of them were superstars either. And that's ok. 

 

I'm just looking at how they were coming along, all those players I mentioned were looking like we had a bright future ahead. And every one of them, to a man, has regressed. That's not drafting, that's development. 

 

Honestly, I still think players like TK and Farabee could be very good. I just don't think they're good enough on their own. I think they'd make for solid complementary pieces, a lot like Provo. That's kind of the problem we have honestly, we have a team made up of complementary pieces. That's the product of the Hexy years imo, and in many ways it did work. The problem is complementary pieces aren't enough. You need a proper sparkplug or two for those guys to reach their potential, and we don't have that.

 

Much like @OccamsRazormentioned above, a guy like Provo isn't a bust if he's "only" a solid 1B first pairing dman. We need that too. It's just that we need the 1A more. For a short time, it looked like Provo could be that kind of guy, now it's a little less clear. I still wouldn't say it's completely out of the question, only that it seems less clear now. Other players with similar billing and around his age seem to be outpacing him in terms of growth. 

 

That said, I do think it's fair to say he had the highest expectations (and showed the highest potential imo) heaped upon him, aside from maybe Carter Hart.

Edited December 21, 2021 by elmatus

[radoran]

2 hours ago, flyer4ever said:

Wanna know how good he is? Trade him out of Dysfunction Junction.  I still think he can be a legit #1, but never in the current Flyer atmosphere. They have not provided him with a supporting cast that every great player needs. The constant drive for mediocrity has affected him like all the others.

 

I really think there is something to be said for this.

 

There's a reason defencemen form effective pairs.

 

There's a reason scoring wingers need playmaking centers.

 

Provorov has shown he can be effective with a competent partner.

 

Konecny and Farabee aren't going to be as productive with Hayes and Brassard.

 

30 minutes ago, elmatus said:

That's the product of the Hexy years imo, and in many ways it did work. The problem is complementary pieces aren't enough. You need a proper sparkplug or two for those guys to reach their potential, and we don't have that.

 

Yeah, they have some solid players.

 

They don't have a superstar.

[SCFlyguy]

I said back in the offseason that Provorov was a good #2 defenseman.  There is no shame in that - it's the best the Flyers have done in 30 years.

 

There is a shame in treating him as a #1. 

[GratefulFlyers]

15 hours ago, elmatus said:

Honestly, I still think players like TK and Farabee could be very good. I just don't think they're good enough on their own. I think they'd make for solid complementary pieces, a lot like Provo.

 

Not to quibble but I think TK and Farabee and Provorov are very good. You mentioned needing a "spark plug" or two and these guys have been just that: TK getting under the skin, making plays and scoring 20+, Farabee the natural goal-scorer and Provorov in the right spot to defend and make the quick outlet.

 

But all that was in their rookie or 1st/2nd years. Now it's buried and inconsistent. That's poor coaching and bad management - not just line / pair combos but the makeup of the roster. I won't rehash what we already know. Suffice it to say Fletcher is a Holmgren clone-moron. Ristolainen for chrissakes. Dumping Gostisbehere then hiring Yandle to be your PP QB... it doesn't get much dumber than that.

 

The author quoted Friedman that Provorov "looks like he doesn't know what he wants to do." So true. I've never attended a practice but it seems to me AV and the assistants haven't worked with Provorov enough. He's been allowed to regress he didn't just regress on his own. Remember his rookie year when over and over we heard "and Provorov is there" when pucks were up for grabs? Talent and instinct don't disappear but they can be beaten down. I think that's what's happening to him.

 

Kind of the same for TK and Sanheim and Farabee...and who knows WTF is going on in Lehigh. Obviously the coaches have been unable to get the best out of their players. I don't think they've been "overvalued," especially guys like Provorov and Farabee. But they have been ignored (in a way) and misused.

[mojo1917]

In defenseman years Ivan is still kind of a baby.

I know he's played a lot of pro games, but those great all situation defenders need to percolate longer because there is more to learn, know and do.

I think he'll be fine.

I also think he will benefit greatly from some stability. So if that can happen in PHI that would be ideal.

Looking at #6, his game has gotten pretty good this season after a middling 2 weeks to start.

Some guys are awesome right from the jump, lots of times those guys then come back to earth see: Ghostisbehere, Shayne and Myers, Tyler.

Where the Flyers have typically drafted those guys take more time to reach their pro potential.

Having a **** AHL club means we watch these guys develop in the world's best hockey league and sometimes other world's best players make developing players look dumb and slow.

 

I'm not trying to sell snow to an eskimo, things aren't all puppy dogs and rainbow farts- but I don't think things are as bad as I'm reading in this forum. 

Which depending on the day reads like a hockey doom-scrolling fantasy. If such a thing were to exist.

 

 

 

[elmatus]

1 hour ago, GratefulFlyers said:

Not to quibble but I think TK and Farabee and Provorov are very good. You mentioned needing a "spark plug" or two and these guys have been just that: TK getting under the skin, making plays and scoring 20+, Farabee the natural goal-scorer and Provorov in the right spot to defend and make the quick outlet.

 

They're good. I just don't know that they're good enough to build a team around. I think they need better players to really shine. That's what I mean by sparkplug in this context. To be fair to them though, I don't think they were ever expected to be that level of player. I agree with you in that they've been good before and stand to be good again. They should definitely both be top six players in the NHL, and I expect they will be. 

 

Provo on the other hand I do think he's had higher expectations heaped upon him. Maybe he was overhyped, but the comparisons in his case were top flight franchise dmen. He was talked about as the kind of dman who challenges for the Norris on an annual basis. He's shown flashes of that, but it's been inconsistent enough to start wondering if that was just too high of a mark for his skill level. Given how others very similar to him have now surpassed him, it seems fair to start asking whether he's more of a wingman than a driver on a first pairing. If that's true, fine, but we probably need someone behind the wheel then.

[ctid]

Provorov has the required skillset. He is strong, can skate, move the puck, pass, shoot, hockey IQ. Imo all are above league average...some very very good, and others average or slightly above.

 

In order for Provo to continuously showcase these skillsets, he needs to be consistent. Consistency leads to better decision making, which leads to higher confidence....when these things happen, everybody will talk about him as a 1A dman again.

 

So why isn't it happening?? For me it's got nothing to do with his skillset or potential. He's got all the tools...it's his confidence and decision making. Most people need to be put in the right situations/environment in order for confidence to flourish. Whether it's a vet damn to lean on to take away some pressure, or coaching, or the (lack of) leadership, or whatever i have no idea.

 

Mentality, mindset, confidence, decision making is everything! Some guys, like Pronger, will always be on top of these....but most human beings need to be put into the right conditions for these to flourish. And these things usually require life experience. Provo needs help here, then the rest will follow.

 

By the way, replace Provo with konecny/sanheim/farabee/frost/Myers/Patrick and it's the same for those guys when it comes mentality/confidence.

[Digityman]

His value will never be higher after last night.

[GratefulFlyers]

On 12/28/2021 at 8:39 AM, ctid said:

So why isn't it happening?? For me it's got nothing to do with his skillset or potential. He's got all the tools...it's his confidence and decision making. Most people need to be put in the right situations/environment in order for confidence to flourish.

 

That's the crux of the biscuit and it isn't just losing Niskanen then going with Gustavsson and now The Invisible Man Ellis - it's the whole group, how they play. I don't know what Vigneult was trying to do I never figured out what kind of team he was building. Whatever it was it didn't do the young players any favors.

 

Defense is about structure, sometimes playing a man usually an area of the ice. Whatever the posture is you have to know your assignment. Especially on breakouts it seemed like the plan was "just get it out; wing it from there." Well that's the way it looked to me I'm sure there was more to it. But I never saw much of a plan, neither a game plan nor a long-term plan to develop talent like Provorov, Farabee, Sanheim etc. Supposedly AV didn't enjoy working with young players...and it showed.

[radoran]

1 hour ago, GratefulFlyers said:

Supposedly AV didn't enjoy working with young players...and it showed.

 

I'm sure the guy that hired him to coach the young players can fix it.