The Myth of Matt Carle's Pronger-Inflated Numbers

[flyerrod]

If the Flyers win the Cup I won't even care about my pants. Ok, maybe everyone didn't need to know that.

Well if the Flyers are going to win it with Bryz or Leighton in goal, you know damn well that fantasy is involved...........

[Polaris922]

Myth or not, the two years he played with Pronger he was +19 and +30. The year without Pronger he was +4.

The year before Pronger arrived he was +2 in 64 games for the Flyers.

Carle can - and likely will - be as productive without Pronger offensively, but his defense is affected without a solid partner.

Flyer GAA (11-12 and before):: 2.70, 2.60, 2.68, 2.78

So the Flyers overall GAA didn't change that much over the four-year period (thus, it's not "Bryz's fault" that Carle was an average of -20 worse without Pronger).

The important thing for a "defenseman" isn't whether or not his offensive production is consistent, but whether his defensive play is.

There I think we'll agree to disagree. Every team that's been successful has at least one d-man who can carry the puck well, quarterback the PP, or make stellar breakout passes. Sure that came with some less physical play and defensive lapses, but goal differential is what wins games. Holding the other team to zero means little if you can't score yourselves. That was his role. Sure Pronger was a defensive stop gap with him, but Coburn could do that too and in my opinion these days, better.

[Podein25]

Sure Pronger was a defensive stop gap with him, but Coburn could do that too and in my opinion these days, better.

Agreed. People have interesting blinders when it comes to this stuff. It's as if nobody ever watched the actual play. Who, I wonder, do they think skated back into his own end to retrieve dump-ins? It sure as hell wasn't Pronger. He stood people up in the neutral zone, knowing full well that he couldn't turn like he used to.

Everyone dumps on Carle for being a wuss, but it was him going back into the corners of his end, risking getting pounded into oblivion by a 6'3" 225 lb forward with speed.

Meanwhile, we have a starting goalie who handles the puck as if it were a Russian-made grenade. So who, I ask, do people expect to retrieve pucks? The slow-footed, slow-witted Luke Schenn? Seriously people, time to wake up about how the game is played.

Edited July 11, 2012 by Podein25

[DaGreatGazoo]

So who, I ask, do people expect to retrieve pucks

Bruno Gervais, of course. He is a career minus player, could barely make the lineup(32 scratches) with the formidable defense in Tampa, and was 7th in the league, in some obscure stat last year. Oh, and no one would sign him for a 1 year deal, so the Flyers gave him 2 years, and a 36% pay increase over last year.

We better pray that Gus plays like the Gus in Game 6 vs Pens, and Bourdon isn't "Lindros-ed" with another concussion. We also better pray that Kimmo AND Meszaros have NO back issues...and

Sorry, this team is slower on defense...and not any better. Not quite sure how a team that had GrossmanN, Kubina, AND Llija playing D last year got slower, but they did.

Hope I'm wrong, praying I'm wrong...but just don't see much improvement in the D zone this year...and that will make for a long year, given the insane Russian in net.

[Podein25]

@DaGreatGazoo

I'm not normally one for prayer, but after reading your post I do find myself looking to the sky. Oh hey, there's a flying pig!

[B21]

Agreed. People have interesting blinders when it comes to this stuff. It's as if nobody ever watched the actual play. Who, I wonder, do they think skated back into his own end to retrieve dump-ins? It sure as hell wasn't Pronger. He stood people up in the neutral zone, knowing full well that he couldn't turn like he used to.

Everyone dumps on Carle for being a wuss, but it was him going back into the corners of his end, risking getting pounded into oblivion by a 6'3" 225 lb forward with speed.

Meanwhile, we have a starting goalie who handles the puck as if it were a Russian-made grenade. So who, I ask, do people expect to retrieve pucks? The slow-footed, slow-witted Luke Schenn? Seriously people, time to wake up about how the game is played.

Good points. Remember that old hockey for Nintendo? Unfortunately, you guys got 5 of those fat guys now and a really old skinny one.

[B21]

Precisely precise. Inflation, and to a lesser extent, weak overall UFA market leads to overpayments.

Uh oh - that again. I agree it was inflationable inflation and the weak UFA market, too.

[Podein25]

Remember that old hockey for Nintendo?

I do, indeed. Actually Coburn, Meszaros and Timonen cannot be considered slow or fat. But none of them are classic puck-moving, rushing D-men either.

[TedZep]

I can still never ever forgive Carle for coughing up the puck on the power play, in the last game of the '08-'09 season against the Rags, to spoil what would have been a NHL record that could never ever be broken, zero short handed goals allowed in a season AND cost them home ice in the playoffs. It was his lame "effort" in pursuit that sealed my contempt for him evermore.

[TedZep]

Dammit so much.

[canoli]

yeah okay it was also Carle who scored the big goal in that last game to get us to the Stupid Shootout, which Boosh won against the great King Henrik.

oh wait, that was the year after you're talking about.

nevermind. carry on. Carle sucks.

[radoran]

There I think we'll agree to disagree. Every team that's been successful has at least one d-man who can carry the puck well, quarterback the PP, or make stellar breakout passes. Sure that came with some less physical play and defensive lapses, but goal differential is what wins games. Holding the other team to zero means little if you can't score yourselves. That was his role. Sure Pronger was a defensive stop gap with him, but Coburn could do that too and in my opinion these days, better.

It's not "agreeing to disgree" - if he is an average of more than -20 worse without Pronger in the lineup that is not "myth" - that's fact. Again, I'm not criticizing Carle. I'm saying that the assertion made in the opening post about some sort of "myth" of inflated stats with Pronger is no "myth" when you look at the +/- stat.

One can't just pick and choose specific stats, ignore others and say "see? myth!" when there's such a glaring exception to the assertion.

The team GAA is pretty consistent, his blocked shots are pretty consistent, but if you give up an average of an extra goal every four games without Pronger in the lineup - that's significant from a "goals win games" perspective as much as the PP QB moving the puck up ice (Carle had 12 PP points this season, while his +/- dropped from +30 to +4).

Again, I say nothing about his offensive nuimbers being "inflated" nor would I have. I completely agree that teams balance out the good with the bad for offensive defensemen and that they will inevitably have turnovers that lead to "bad goals".

But facts is facts.

[Podein25]

One can't just pick and choose specific stats, ignore others and say "see? myth!"

Special K disagrees. Moreover, he does so with reference to long-snapping centers in football.

[AJgoal]

In 2009-2009, Nick Lidstrom was a +31, in 2009-2010, he was a +22. In 2010-2011, he was a -2. Team GAA went down by .3 from 08-09 to 09-10, yet his +/- dipped. Then it plummetted in 10-11 when he was paired with Kronwall and team GAA went back up. Was Brian Rafalski covering for Lidstrom's ineptitude? Obvious hyperbole, of course.

+/- is an ok stat, but it can't be looked at on an individual basis. Hockey is too fluid - Sure, Carle made mistakes, but last year's partner (Meszaros? I really can't remember who he was with most of the season) probably made more than Pronger did. More rookies on the team = more mistakes. More ice time = more chances for there to be a goal against on your shift. I don't wholly disagree that Carle wasn't outstanding in the D zone, but +/- is a poor indicator, IMO.

[radoran]

In 2009-2009, Nick Lidstrom was a +31, in 2009-2010, he was a +22. In 2010-2011, he was a -2. Team GAA went down by .3 from 08-09 to 09-10, yet his +/- dipped. Then it plummetted in 10-11 when he was paired with Kronwall and team GAA went back up. Was Brian Rafalski covering for Lidstrom's ineptitude? Obvious hyperbole, of course.

+/- is an ok stat, but it can't be looked at on an individual basis. Hockey is too fluid - Sure, Carle made mistakes, but last year's partner (Meszaros? I really can't remember who he was with most of the season) probably made more than Pronger did. More rookies on the team = more mistakes. More ice time = more chances for there to be a goal against on your shift. I don't wholly disagree that Carle wasn't outstanding in the D zone, but +/- is a poor indicator, IMO.

I believe we've had the +/- discussion about once every 6-8 months since I started posting...

It is not a perfect stat. Nothing is a perfect stat.

+/- isn't the be-all and end-all stat any more than PPA or BLKs. Carle is habitually top 10 in blocked shots - is that a good thing? Could be. Or it cold be that he has a proclivity to leave his feet and dive, taking himself out of position.

Does the number of blocks tell you that? No.

Carle had 12 power play points last season - up from 2 the year before. Because he had more PP time without Pronger. Does that mean he has "inflated stats" WITHOUT Pronger?

Does the number of power play points tell you that? No.

But, for you to disagree with the efficacy of the stat while tacitly acknowledging that it reflected the reality you observed on the ice, seems a bit... hairsplitting?

The only point being made was that the assertion in the opening post that Carle didn't have better stats with Pronger than withot was factually - and demonstrably - incorrect. It remains so.

[Polaris922]

It's not "agreeing to disgree" - if he is an average of more than -20 worse without Pronger in the lineup that is not "myth" - that's fact. Again, I'm not criticizing Carle. I'm saying that the assertion made in the opening post about some sort of "myth" of inflated stats with Pronger is no "myth" when you look at the +/- stat.

One can't just pick and choose specific stats, ignore others and say "see? myth!" when there's such a glaring exception to the assertion.

The team GAA is pretty consistent, his blocked shots are pretty consistent, but if you give up an average of an extra goal every four games without Pronger in the lineup - that's significant from a "goals win games" perspective as much as the PP QB moving the puck up ice (Carle had 12 PP points this season, while his +/- dropped from +30 to +4).

Again, I say nothing about his offensive nuimbers being "inflated" nor would I have. I completely agree that teams balance out the good with the bad for offensive defensemen and that they will inevitably have turnovers that lead to "bad goals".

But facts is facts.

I suppose I have to look at where your -20 comes from. The stats in the article clearly show a much better goals for/against ratio... So where is the minus coming from?

And to say the numbers are factually incorrect? Again I reiterate... Goal differential WINS games... Not +/- ... So if Carle minus Pronger meant a higher goal differential in the Flyers favor, statistically you won more games when Carle skated without Pronger than with. Which do you prefer? Wins or a better +/- ? I know the plus/minus usually add up to wins, but if your numbers are right I'd say your team breaks the trend. I've found two articles talking about win/loss with Pronger that contradict one another. I think Pronger was great for your team initially but the argument was his impact on Carle.

Edited July 12, 2012 by Polaris922

[OccamsRazor]

I can still never ever forgive Carle for coughing up the puck on the power play, in the last game of the '08-'09 season against the Rags, to spoil what would have been a NHL record that could never ever be broken, zero short handed goals allowed in a season AND cost them home ice in the playoffs. It was his lame "effort" in pursuit that sealed my contempt for him evermore.

Damnit i have almost for got about that till now all because of you......thanks....now i hate him even more....

[jammer2]

@OccamsRazor I remember that play like it was yesterday. Some might call it selective memory, but nonetheless, it stuck there, like an annoying little piece of popcorn kernal stuck in your teeth that you can't quite get to.

[OccamsRazor]

@OccamsRazor I remember that play like it was yesterday. Some might call it selective memory, but nonetheless, it stuck there, like an annoying little piece of popcorn kernal stuck in your teeth that you can't quite get to.

I was just kidding i remember it too.

Just another reason why i thought he was overated.

As many good plays he makes during the game he's also going to cause as many mistakes...not all of them end up in the back of the net but many just as well kill momentum during the game/play...so long Matt enjoy the money with no Cup....

[sarsippius]

Special K disagrees. Moreover, he does so with reference to long-snapping centers in football.

@Podein25

Special K. And the long snapper. They're kinda similar.