Realistically Speaking....How many years away?

[Poulin20]

OK prognosticators, we have had a healthy dose of viewing the Flyers this year.  We have seen the good, the bad and the ugly of this team.  We can see that we have great potential on offense and in net (for now at least).  The defense seems to be where the major holes are however we have some young guys brewing in the pipeline currently.  The core is young and may be able to stay in tact for a while provided Homer doesn't screw things up.

 

With all of these variables in play, realistically speaking how many years away is this team from being a serious contender?  What say you gents (and ladies)?

Edited January 13, 2014 by Poulin20

[Samifan]

The number of years will directly relate to the number of years Snider and Holmgren are running the team. Snider is on record as saying we don't need a fresh perspective so it will be business as usual. Snider will employee the win now attitude and Homer will trade away prospects for over priced veterans which will be signed to outrageous contracts complete with NMC.

When is the last time the Flyers have allowed a prospect to develop? (Cue the Jeopardy theme)

[TropicalFruitGirl26]

I don't follow the team as closely as the Flyer fans on here do, obviously, but to me, Philadelphia is an organization that will always be 'on the cusp' of being able to contend, not only for a playoff spot year in, year out, but a Stanley Cup, if they can manage to develop and maintain a consistent group together for any length of time.

 

You Flyer fans are AWFULLY hard on your own team and its young players, which I can understand...but at the same time, it must be realized that those young players need stability in order to develop into the next Chris Pronger, John LeClair, or Ron Hextall types.

If that means having them go through their ups and downs together, as they have this season, then so be it.

 

That all said, I think the Flyers can be serious contenders as early as next season. Again, provided no one in the Philly organization hits the panic button and starts doing stupid things because the team isn't the number one ranked team in the league right now.

I get that the Philly market has high expectations for the team every year.

But so do alot of other markets. But the difference between the successful teams and those who seem to flounder and flop every year is that the successful ones get a gameplan, stick to it, and instill all the confidence in the world in the young players they deemed good enough to keep on the team.

 

Do the Flyers have deficiencies that need to be addressed before this team can be taken seriously as a contender? Sure. What team doesn't.

But Philly DOES have skill and does have players on the team even now (not really sure who is in their system that can help augment that without looking stuff up), that can suddenly surprise the fanbase at large due to them taking their lumps now, and the lumps they've taken the last couple seasons, and can just as easily come out like the proverbial house of fire next season.

 

And hey, look...THIS season is far from over, the Metro division isn't as power packed as, say, the Pacific Division, the Pens are the top team in the Metro, but we all know the kinds of letdowns they are capable of in the post season (when they aren't winning a Cup that is...   ), so all is not lost even for 2013-14.

 

But it wouldn't surprise me at all if the Flyers were 'serious' contenders as early as next year.

Ownership and management must tread carefully, make tweaks here and there where they need it, and continue on with the molding of their young players, particularly their D-men, and weeding out the ones (including vets) who won't be able to provide anymore than what they have moving forward.

 

I've said it many times....this season has seen it's share of underperforming franchises.

Out West, I look at teams like Winnipeg, Dallas, and Phoenix, and feel they should be higher up in the standings than they are given their talent and individual player abilities.

 

In the East, Ottawa, Toronto, and yes, the Flyers are teams that should be contenders for the same reason....and of the three teams I believe that to be so in the East, lo and behold, the Flyers, despite their most recent bumpy road, are in the best position to grab a playoff spot.

[radoran]

OK prognosticators, we have had a healthy dose of viewing the Flyers this year.  We have seen the good, the bad and the ugly of this team.  We can see that we have great potential on offense and in net (for now at least).  The defense seems to be where the major holes are however we have some young guys brewing in the pipeline currently.  The core is young and may be able to stay in tact for a while provided Homer doesn't screw things up.

 

With all of these variables in play, realistically speaking how many years away is this team from being a serious contender?  What say you gents (and ladies)?

 

Realistically, this is going to be the team that you are going to see for the next 2-3 seasons. They will be able to make some moves on D to replace Timonen and Meszaros, but the vast majority of the core is locked in and under contract.

 

That said, Homer is quite capable of blowing the whole thing up (only five guys are still here from the 10-11 team).

 

The number of years will directly relate to the number of years Snider and Holmgren are running the team. Snider is on record as saying we don't need a fresh perspective so it will be business as usual. Snider will employee the win now attitude and Homer will trade away prospects for over priced veterans which will be signed to outrageous contracts complete with NMC.

When is the last time the Flyers have allowed a prospect to develop? (Cue the Jeopardy theme)

 

Claude Giroux. Sean Couturier? Before that - Simon Gagne?

[murraycraven]

I dont see anything on the current roster remotely close to being a Dman that you can build around.  Streit is here to stay and I think Coburn and Grossman should stick around.   Morin and Haag are 2-3 years away IMO.  I would say a serious contender in 3-4 years.  This core needs to grow together and the defense needs to be blown up and rebuilt.   Schenn is just terrible and Mezz should be sitting in the press box...

Edited January 13, 2014 by murraycraven

[murraycraven]

Realistically, this is going to be the team that you are going to see for the next 2-3 seasons. They will be able to make some moves on D to replace Timonen and Meszaros, but the vast majority of the core is locked in and under contract.

 

That said, Homer is quite capable of blowing the whole thing up (only five guys are still here from the 10-11 team).

 

 

Claude Giroux. Sean Couturier? Before that - Simon Gagne?

 

 

 

Richards and Carter

[OH1FlyersFan]

It depends -- how many more years are Lundquist and Brodeur going to be playing in the NHL?  They appear to be a consistent and significant impediment to our chances.  Ha!

[flyercanuck]

My guess is it all depends on IF a good #1 defenceman in his prime shows up in free agency and the Flyers are able to sign him. To me waiting for something like that (which may happen in 1 year or 5 without looking at the list) makes more sense than throwing money at the VLCs and Mark Streits of the world.(heck, I'd rather have Girardi signed for the next 5 years than BOTH VLC and Streit)

 

Or we acquire one through trade. If you can't develop defencemen, trade forwards. Guys like Coburn and Grossman would look a lot better if they were playing with the likes of a Weber or a Keith (in name only) than broken down Kimmo and defensively disabled Streit.

 

But the reality is, most teams realize how key top pairing Dmen are and rarely let them walk nowadays. So drafting and developing them really seems like the way to go. Of course Holmgren HAS to go after the top names in UFA EVERY...SINGLE...YEAR, keeping the Flyers in the mediocre to good range, so the chance of drafting those blue chippers gets a lot tougher. 

[Samifan]

Realistically, this is going to be the team that you are going to see for the next 2-3 seasons. They will be able to make some moves on D to replace Timonen and Meszaros, but the vast majority of the core is locked in and under contract.

 

That said, Homer is quite capable of blowing the whole thing up (only five guys are still here from the 10-11 team).

 

 

Claude Giroux. Sean Couturier? Before that - Simon Gagne?

Rad-those 3 were basically NHL ready. When the question was asked about allowing prospects to develop,I consider that to spend a few years back in juniors,college and eventually the AHL before the Flyers threw them right in the lineup or traded them prematurely. The three you mentioned were all rare exceptions and are forwards, it never happens with goaltenders or defensemen .

[brelic]

OK prognosticators, we have had a healthy dose of viewing the Flyers this year.  We have seen the good, the bad and the ugly of this team.  We can see that we have great potential on offense and in net (for now at least).  The defense seems to be where the major holes are however we have some young guys brewing in the pipeline currently.  The core is young and may be able to stay in tact for a while provided Homer doesn't screw things up.

 

With all of these variables in play, realistically speaking how many years away is this team from being a serious contender?  What say you gents (and ladies)?

 

Interesting question. 

 

The issue, as I see it, is that the Flyers only have one 'star' (two if you count Jake who has the tools to become one) and I can't see how they would add/acquire another bona fide star (especially on D).

 

Think of the past Cup winners:

 

Hawks - Kane, Toews, Keith

LA Kings - Kopitar, Quick, Doughty (Richards, Carter)

Bruins - Chara, Thomas (but no real standout star forward... though Krejci had a great run that year)

Hawks - Kane, Toews, Keith, Hossa, Sharp (star?)

Penguins - Crosby, Malkin, Letang

Wings - Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Lidstrom

Ducks - Selanne, Getzlaf, Perry, Pronger, Niedermeyer

Canes - E. Staal, Brind'Amour (star?), Williams (star?), Ward (played like a star)

 

So you pretty much have to go back to the Canes to find a team that doesn't have AT LEAST two bona fide stars on the team, and there's almost always a defenseman involved. It almost seems like you need that steadying presence on the blueline who will play half the game, make opponents pay the price, and contribute offensively on a regular basis.

 

We don't have anything like that in our system (at least not projected to be). Keith was a 2nd rounder, so was Weber. Many top defensemen were later picks, so that's encouraging. The discouraging thing is that we have not developed a top pairing defenseman since... when... Mark Howe? Even then we didn't draft him.

 

So to answer your question, I'm not entirely sure. A lot depends on how our young forwards develop - will Schenn be a true star power forward? Will Couturier live up to the hype? Can Giroux take one more step towards 'elite' and become a dynamic leader?

 

And a ton depends on how we develop our blue line. Is there a true top pairing defenseman in our stable? And if there is, the most critical question is this: Are the Flyers equipped to identify, develop, and transition such a player? The evidence points to no.

 

Not trying to be a negative nelly, but it seems like we are missing some requisite elements that are really hard to come by in today's NHL unless you draft well.

 

We will be competitive, no doubt. But will we have that X factor and star power that takes us over the top?

[radoran]

Rad-those 3 were basically NHL ready. When the question was asked about allowing prospects to develop,I consider that to spend a few years back in juniors,college and eventually the AHL before the Flyers threw them right in the lineup or traded them prematurely. The three you mentioned were all rare exceptions and are forwards, it never happens with goaltenders or defensemen .

 

Well, Couturier isn't exactly "developed" yet and still has a ways to go before "the Flyers" developed him.

 

Giroux i would say is an obvious example. Gagne as well. That said, they did eventually trade away Gagne... And Gagne was drafted in 1998.

 

Since then, they have a grand total of three first rounders on the roster - Downie, Giroux, Couturier - and one of them has already played for two other teams.

 

They've also only spent six 1/2 rounders on Dmen over that stretch (of 28 1/2 rounds, not including the latest draft) and two of them have never even played a game in the NHL while a third played 10 whole games.

[mojo1917]

Looking at the defense I don't know how to upgrade in the manner everyone would like without nuking the core that is showing signs of being pretty good.

 

There aren't guys you would want to "build around" even becoming RFAs let alone UFAs, every GM in the league is signing their defensemen to lengthy and overblown deals... I like that swede in Winterpeg Tobias Enstrom, but they locked him up for 5 years, he can't be "had" for just money.  

 

You have to give to get and I truly don't see where you get "the 25 minute a night" top pairing guy without dealing roster players .  

I know we had Carle and the missteps to this point, so no need to pick that scab,  the change must come from within... and with that I don't know why we aren't letting the Dane get some minutes in the NHL and at least looking at the other guys in ADK.  Mezaros is a known quantity and is not doing anything to my eye that says he should be playing top 4 NHL minutes.  

This season can be dealt with our wise mind , the Flyers can contend  for the playoffs maybe even sneak in,  but for me working our young defensemen into to the mix for the eventual retirement of Timmonen and release of Mezaros should be happening now.

Coburn, Grossmann,Striet, ...Schenn?  there is potential for this to be a decent foundation on which to build.

 

I posted this in the Downie thread ...thinking I was in this one,  yay 40's 

[Digityman]

If the core young players are left to develop (Only replace aging vets) = 3-4 years (Giroux is 29/30 yrs old)

If Homer/Another GM/Snider keep doing what they do year in and year out = By the time I'm dead hopefully.

[aziz]

If the core young players are left to develop (Only replace aging vets) = 3-4 years (Giroux is 29/30 yrs old)
If Homer/Another GM/Snider keep doing what they do year in and year out = By the time I'm dead hopefully.

 

to my mind, they are going to need to bring in outside help on the blueline to put themselves over the top.  be it through trade or FA signing, there is a center of gravity missing back there, and i don't believe the answer is currently in the flyers' pipeline.

 

it'd need to be a smart add, but "doing what they do year in and year out" is exactly what needs to happen.  at least some version of it.

[radoran]

to my mind, they are going to need to bring in outside help on the blueline to put themselves over the top.  be it through trade or FA signing, there is a center of gravity missing back there, and i don't believe the answer is currently in the flyers' pipeline.

 

it'd need to be a smart add, but "doing what they do year in and year out" is exactly what needs to happen.  at least some version of it.

 

I'll go out on a limb and say that if, two and a half years from now, there are a grand total of five guys from this current roster still on the team, they will not be any closer to "winning a championship."

 

And that's what they've done "year in and year out."

 

Successful teams add to their core to win, they don't wholesale replace the core every three years.

 

As to your assertion that they will need to add a piece through FA or trade - absolutely.

 

I don't see anything in the 2014 UFA crop that would be a good ticket - even though Derek Morris is available ()

 

2015? Hmmm...

 

So, I'm guessing "trade"

[brelic]

to my mind, they are going to need to bring in outside help on the blueline to put themselves over the top.  be it through trade or FA signing, there is a center of gravity missing back there, and i don't believe the answer is currently in the flyers' pipeline.

 

it'd need to be a smart add, but "doing what they do year in and year out" is exactly what needs to happen.  at least some version of it.

 

I agree that we'll probably need to bring in help from the outside but only because of our drafting history.

 

It's amazing to me that Detroit got so much out of Datsuyk (6th rounder), Zetterberg (7th rounder) and Lidstrom (3rd rounder). All three of those guys are future HOFers.

 

How many draft picks do we have (or have we had) that were picked late and just blew the doors off expectations? I can't really think of one. Probably because they never stick around long enough and aren't given a chance.

[aziz]

How many draft picks do we have (or have we had) that were picked late and just blew the doors off expectations? I can't really think of one. Probably because they never stick around long enough and aren't given a chance.

 

no, because:  how many flyers draft picks that were picked late and just blew the doors off expectations are elsewhere in the league?  

it isn't that they never stick around long enough, it's that they don't exist.  

 

go through rosters and you might come up with 10-15 of those kinds of players in the entire league.

 

 

It's amazing to me that Detroit got so much out of Datsuyk (6th rounder), Zetterberg (7th rounder) and Lidstrom (3rd rounder). All three of those guys are future HOFers.

 

 

honestly, it's a matter of luck.  good scouting, sure, but more than anything else, luck.  i know that'll rile people up, but think about it:  if detroit thought any of those players were going to turn out as they did, would they really have left them on the board so long?  would they have spent a draft pick on brent hobday if they knew pavel datsyuk would come to define slick puck handling for a generation?  or mike sillinger if they knew one of the best defensemen of all time was just sitting there for anyone to take?

 

gotta get lucky.  the only lesson there for the flyers is that deeper draft picks have *some* value, because one of out every thousand or so will become a big deal.

Edited January 13, 2014 by aziz

[radoran]

I agree that we'll probably need to bring in help from the outside but only because of our drafting history.

It's amazing to me that Detroit got so much out of Datsuyk (6th rounder), Zetterberg (7th rounder) and Lidstrom (3rd rounder). All three of those guys are future HOFers.

How many draft picks do we have (or have we had) that were picked late and just blew the doors off expectations? I can't really think of one. Probably because they never stick around long enough and aren't given a chance.

Detroit was way out in front in terms of European scouting and drafting. You have a lot fewer gems that are just outright missed - in large part because of what Detroit was able to accomplish.

Seidenberg is probably the best example - 6th round, 2001. But, hey, they got a season of "shutdown center" Petr Nedved out of that.

Rinaldo also a 6th rounder - not quite the Datsyuk/Zetterberg you're looking for, though... Also Todd Fedoruk.

You might also add Roman Cechmanek and Antero Niittyymmaakkii?

[Phlyer1]

Are we talking earth years or light years?

[Polaris922]

38 years

(Sorry I just had to!)

[doom88]

38 years

(Sorry I just had to!)

...asshole

[Polaris922]

@doom88

Lol. Touché'!

[brelic]

no, because:  how many flyers draft picks that were picked late and just blew the doors off expectations are elsewhere in the league?  
it isn't that they never stick around long enough, it's that they don't exist.  
 
go through rosters and you might come up with 10-15 of those kinds of players in the entire league.

 

Fair enough. I guess what I really meant is not a first rounder. There are elite defensemen to be found outside of the top round (Keith, Weber, Chara, and Subban come to mind), and we just never seem to find any. At least the Flyers have put themselves in the position for that to actually happen by drafting defensemen early.

 

honestly, it's a matter of luck.  good scouting, sure, but more than anything else, luck.  i know that'll rile people up, but think about it:  if detroit thought any of those players were going to turn out as they did, would they really have left them on the board so long?  would they have spent a draft pick on brent hobday if they knew pavel datsyuk would come to define slick puck handling for a generation?  or mike sillinger if they knew one of the best defensemen of all time was just sitting there for anyone to take?
 
gotta get lucky.  the only lesson there for the flyers is that deeper draft picks have *some* value, because one of out every thousand or so will become a big deal.

 

There's absolutely luck involved. But to have that happen three times close together and for them to all be part of the core? That's more than luck. 

 

Meanwhile, we waste 3rd rounders on guys like Tyrell Goulbourne, who never even have the potential to develop those kinds of skills.

 

It's part of the Flyers culture, and the powers that be are happy with it.

[brelic]

This is a timely (suspiciously so) piece in Seravalli's article. It's not the first time I've noticed the gist of a popular thread on this board show up in a Seravalli article the next day. 

 

Hey Frank, if you're here, don't hide. Let us know you're here, post, and join the discussion.

 

Anyway, here's the bit from his article. 

 

 

43: Percent of current NHL players drafted in the fourth round or later, or not at all, according to @NortonSports.

 

39: Percent of players on the Flyers’ current 23-man roster drafted in the fourth round or later, or not at all: Matt Read, Erik Gustafsson, Kimmo Timonen, Hal Gill, Ray Emery, Zac Rinaldo, Jay Rosehill, Mark Streit and Chris VandeVelde.

 

 

Read more at http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/flyers/20140114_Berube_is_a_rock_for_Flyers.html#k7iFrDxgTsU4s605.99

 

So from that list, we have 4 that are Flyers pickups. One has proven himself to be a top-9 / top-6 winger (Read). Gus is on the bubble, ceiling seems to be 2nd pairing. Rinaldo and Vandevelde are bottom-6 / bottom-3 wingers.

 

Our percentage of 4th rounder+ drops to below 20% when you limit it to those players we actually drafted or discovered. I wonder what that looks like on other teams.

 

Frank?

 

[ruxpin]

With all of these variables in play, realistically speaking how many years away is this team from being a serious contender?  What say you gents (and ladies)?

 

Any idea how many years we have left as a species?    Add one year.