Flyers are a bottom five team, what are the desired plans for the rebuild we don't need?

[mojo1917]

14 hours ago, GratefulFlyers said:

What’s this about? Is Provorov some kind of big deal on Tik Tok or something? I’m flashing back to the Center City Crew and the Dry Island drama. Say it ain’t so…

 

No it's nothing like that, he does goofy stuff with his dog and girlfriend.

I didn't want to go down the path about maybe his ego being little outsized for his actual abilities.

The way he reacted to his playing time being altered last season, his interaction with the press at the end of the season. 

Coupled with his social media presence I was thinking that maybe 10k likes for doing TikTok had his priorities outta whack.

 

This season he's been a dawg.  So I think maybe that was just some growing pains/frustration with the situation he's found himself in.

 

Don't look now, but he and Ristolainen actually seem to have some chemistry playing together, I think Ivan's steady game allows Risto to just play hockey.

Risto has been pretty good paired with Provorov IMO. the pairing hasn't been getting caved 55 is actually making some good pinches and some plays in the offensive zone. 

 

I like the player(Provorov)

[Digityman]

On 12/5/2022 at 1:57 PM, RonJeremy said:

Provorov and Konecny ,both players only have two more years left after this and they will be UFAs. Konecny looks like he's on his way to a career season, Provorov is doing better than last year. So both players have been through a failed six year rebuild and are facing another rebuild. Do you really think they wanna stick around for that? I don't see either player not testing the UFA market. Trading these two guys will get us our biggest returns and start the rebuild properly. Especially if Konecny has a career season.

 

I agree, the time is now to sell Provorov and TK.  Let us not forget that it's okay to develop players and consider them a commodity.  I think sometimes people forget that piece - especially Flyers mgmt.  We've all seen enough of these two to figure out what they are going to be, it's about time we sell high on players that are approaching UFA.  

 

 

On 12/5/2022 at 1:57 PM, RonJeremy said:

Hart- he's a good young goalie, he's due a new contract at the end of 23/24 , the team will suck for at least another 4-5 years, he will be close to thirty by then . Do we trade him or let him suffer on a rebuilding team ?  Or sign a washed up vet and let him get hung out to dry with Sandstrom, while we develop Ersson ,who actually looks real good.

 

Trading Hart is the ultimate way to jumpstart a rebuild I'm just not sure that's the best asset management.   Ersson does look good but not good enough to say he'll be a starter in the NHL.   Now if Fedotov got busted out of military prison by Winona Ryder and picked up where he left off, I think that makes it easier to trade Hart.  

 

I think the whole point is to look at what you have in the cupboards that could *reasonably* replace what you have aging out by the time the rebuild is complete.   Maybe not a direct replacement but projected *similar* skill.   And if you do have that coming up then sell high...

So for example below, Flyers do have *like* replacements for those in green.  Those in yellow are shopped....

 

IF all are kept, the average age of those guys are 30.....woof.

I used age 35 as age of decline (years left).

 

 

Edited December 8, 2022 by Digityman

[mojo1917]

@Digityman

A Cone

 

brilliant

[OccamsRazor]

14 minutes ago, Digityman said:

 

I agree, the time is now to sell Provorov and TK.  Let us not forget that it's okay to develop players and consider them a commodity.  I think sometimes people forget that piece - especially Flyers mgmt.  We've all seen enough of these two to figure out what they are going to be, it's about time we sell high on players that are approaching UFA.  

 

 

 

Trading Hart is the ultimate way to jumpstart a rebuild I'm just not sure that's the best asset management.   Ersson does look good but not good enough to say he'll be a starter in the NHL.   Now if Fedotov got busted out of military prison by Winona Ryder and picked up where he left off, I think that makes it easier to trade Hart.  

 

I think the whole point is to look at what you have in the cupboards that could *reasonably* replace what you have aging out by the time the rebuild is complete.   Maybe not a direct replacement but projected *similar* skill.   And if you do have that coming up then sell high...

So for example below, Flyers do have *like* replacements for those in green.  Those in yellow are shopped....

 

IF all are kept, the average age of those guys are 30.....woof.

I used age 35 as age of decline (years left).

 

 

 

If there is any trades especially big ones I would prefer the next GM to do it not Chuck on his way out the door.

[OccamsRazor]

On 12/7/2022 at 4:34 PM, OccamsRazor said:

 

Emil Andrea

 

 

But would they be patient and let him develop?? He'll 21 in February. Not sure how long before he comes over.

 

Not my words but i read somewhere a few weeks ago this kid was said to have that type of upside from what he has seen so far.

 

It was a Swedish article and i had to translate it and i do know know the creditability of the guy who wrote it so as far as i know it could have been a FillDill type nut.

 

But even a few years if your 2nd pair becomes Ivan and Travis on the right side (i think if put there he can learn it) i am good with that.

 

York and Attard on the bottom pair.

 

Pieces you can move.

 

RR

TDA

 

Zamula for now the 7th? Or traded for... 

 

 

 

 

 

BUMP.

 

 

Not every cloud is dark.

 

 

 

 

Edited December 9, 2022 by OccamsRazor
#boubonup

[CoachX]

1 hour ago, Digityman said:

 

I agree, the time is now to sell Provorov and TK.  Let us not forget that it's okay to develop players and consider them a commodity.  I think sometimes people forget that piece - especially Flyers mgmt.  We've all seen enough of these two to figure out what they are going to be, it's about time we sell high on players that are approaching UFA.  

 

 

 

Trading Hart is the ultimate way to jumpstart a rebuild I'm just not sure that's the best asset management.   Ersson does look good but not good enough to say he'll be a starter in the NHL.   Now if Fedotov got busted out of military prison by Winona Ryder and picked up where he left off, I think that makes it easier to trade Hart.  

 

Who was the last "superstar", potential HOF possible player the Flyers drafted and developed? Giroux?

 

The fact is this management has no track record of drafting and developing players. So to move a TK or Provy now, to just do the same thing all over, is just plain dumb. What it will get you in five to six years, is another couple of really good payers that you will have to move before free agency, AGAIN!

 

STOP THE MADNESS!

 

Wash, rinse, repeat

 

[RonJeremy]

40 minutes ago, CoachX said:

Who was the last "superstar", potential HOF possible player the Flyers drafted and developed? Giroux?

 

The fact is this management has no track record of drafting and developing players. So to move a TK or Provy now, to just do the same thing all over, is just plain dumb. What it will get you in five to six years, is another couple of really good payers that you will have to move before free agency, AGAIN!

 

STOP THE MADNESS!

 

Wash, rinse, repeat

 

We most definitely need to give an enema to the whole front office,upper management and the coaching staff, including the Phantoms staff. Alot of the scouts need to go too. I would keep Torts, he can toughen up the young guys and teach them good habits.

 

As I said we have not drafted a first line player since Carter and Richards or Giroux, thats it in the past 15 years .

We all agree, we can not have Shmuck and company in charge of the rebuild. I

[Mad Dog]

On 12/7/2022 at 5:26 AM, flyercanuck said:

 

Hayes wants to be in Philly, after he said he didn't unless they overpaid him, which they did, so now he loves making way more money than he's worth for putting in half effort games which is why Winnipeg and the Rangers (teams we look up at in the standings) didn't want him........and neither do I. 

 I heard at one point, the Jets considered swapping Mark Scheifele for Hayes, but at the end, it fell through.

[flyercanuck]

1 hour ago, Mad Dog said:

 I heard at one point, the Jets considered swapping Mark Scheifele for Hayes, but at the end, it fell through.

 

Yiiikes. You mean to the Rangers in their initial deal? I'd have a hard time believing that one. Scheifele was by far the better player there...not even close. But worse deals have been made.

[flyercanuck]

23 hours ago, GrittyForever said:

So what's your f'n point besides bitching and whining? 

the team is what it is. Yes, it's Fletcher's fault. We all know this. So what's the point of complaining about Hayes forever? there is none. 

You improve until he's irrelevant (like JVR is now) or you just let the contract run out when it does. If you could trade him you do, but you won't be able to with his salary so you just live with it. 

 

Sorry man...just not this type.       Improve? The team is in a free fall.

 

 

Edited December 8, 2022 by flyercanuck

[jammer2]

I dont trust Fletcher to rebuild. He does not properly value cap space and will continually screw this team to save his job...and Comnasty might let him. 

 

Wake me up when Clarke dies and his stinky influence on this team dies with him.

[GrittyForever]

8 hours ago, flyercanuck said:

 

Sorry man...just not this type.       Improve? The team is in a free fall.

 

 

Admit it, you have more fun when they lose because it gives you an excuse to trash them. 

 

Nothing in the world easier than being a critic. Why don't you try outlining a plan you'd actually implement if you were the GM and we can all have fun ridiculing it. 

[flyercanuck]

3 hours ago, GrittyForever said:

Admit it, you have more fun when they lose because it gives you an excuse to trash them. 

 

Nothing in the world easier than being a critic. Why don't you try outlining a plan you'd actually implement if you were the GM and we can all have fun ridiculing it. 

 

Use your draft picks instead of trading them away. It's how we got Carter Hart/Konecny/Couturier/Sanheim/Provorov/Frost/Allison/Farabee. Stop signing FAs just for the sake of signing them. Thats how we got Hayes and JVR. Bring in people who can develop NHL talent. Stop overpaying for bums like Ristolainen. Theres four easy ways to make this team better that took me all of 3 seconds to figure out. Flame away...and keep cheering this lameass excuse of what used to be a great franchise. If it hurts your feelings to read my posts just put me on ignore...simple. But please don't tell me what to do. If you're ok with being the laughingstock of the league, enjoy it, embrace it. I'm not. 

 

Sure I'd have a lot more fun if they were winning. But I'd even have fun watching them if there was a plan in place on how to rebuild this catastrophe. But the plan is to win now, with a lineup that just can't. If they tore it down and tried to rebuild this thing properly I'd be right in line with them and cheering win or lose....like I've done probably a lot longer than you have.

Edited December 9, 2022 by flyercanuck

[Digityman]

16 hours ago, CoachX said:

The fact is this management has no track record of drafting and developing players. So to move a TK or Provy now, to just do the same thing all over, is just plain dumb. What it will get you in five to six years, is another couple of really good payers that you will have to move before free agency, AGAIN!

 

I understand your point, I just don't agree with it.

 

If you sell Prov/TK high you get a chance at getting one or more players that *might* be better.

If you keep Prov/TK you keep them their value declines starting next year along with any possible returns. (impending UFAs)

 

Players are like stocks.  There are ones that age well and those that don't.   For example Giroux aged really well.  His value at 34 (should have) fetched a (more) healthy return AND while they kept him he had great dividends.  Players reach a point to where their value starts to diminish.   He's like the Disney, Apple.... slight up and downs but you know what you'll get for a long period of time and you reinvest those dividends.

 

Statistically forwards peak at 28 and defencemen peak at 29.   Both Prov/TK are 25 and will be 28 in 3 years (2025/6), which is about the earliest most on this board think the Flyers will be relevant again.   So you get those players at their peak for (arguably) 1-2 years and then they start to decline.   Not only that but both players are UFA's that year and if they keep at their current pace, will require salary increases.   So, you get them for 1-2 years at current salary, then they want a long stable contract moving forward (the kind we all complain about).   

 

In my opinion, that's not good asset management.  Many posters on here have complained about giving too long of contract to those 27-30 year old UFA's who have already reached their peak but want to be paid on 'past' performance.  

 

So the Flyers have three choices:   

1. Sell high on both.  This year fetches the most, next year slightly less because of impending UFA in 3 years.   Get picks (preferable)
2. Keep them, extend them in 2024/5 for long term for more money and complain that they got too much term/money
3. Lose them for nothing to UFA

Again, all in my opinion, but the choice is pretty clear as to which I would think makes the most sense.

 

To your point, I don't want to sell everyone.  It makes no sense BUT they need to start selling high on players to get better returns (picks).

[GratefulFlyers]

4 hours ago, flyercanuck said:

But the plan is to win now...

 

I wonder. There's been mixed messaging coming out of the Flyers - Tortorella on one hand Fletcher on the other and Fletcher has been the one losing ground. At least in the media. Whether that means he's actually reconsidering anything - if he even has that capacity - who knows.

 

But at least now there's talk of accountability and sacrifice for the team. It's mostly (but not exclusively) coming from the HC and of course he can only coach what he's given. But I think Tortorella's message to the fans and to his bosses is sinking in: "We're starting over - get used to it."

 

 

 

 

Edited December 9, 2022 by GratefulFlyers

[GratefulFlyers]

@Digityman

 

Good analysis but by focusing strictly on the money you leave out some parts of the equation. Fans never hear much about the intangibles. What kind of teammate is he? Does he fit the team's identity (what it eventually becomes)? Is he a good mentor? etc. etc. These all part of what makes a player valuable to his team. Not necessarily irreplaceable but worth keeping as opposed to gambling you'll land his twin.

 

The other thing you don't allow for is growth, for untapped potential. Neither guy is a finished product. TK is the Flyers version of Brad Marchand. There aren't many players like Marchand and TK is one of them. At 25 his ceiling is nowhere in sight.

 

Provorov...I just like. His best games are a thing of beauty. Good foot speed, reads plays quickly, tough as nails and he can carry the puck. The better the Flyers play the fewer mistakes he makes.

 

If none of the above means anything I'll leave you with this: moving players in the hopes of getting back (or developing) players just like them seems to me taking an unnecessarily long road back to competitiveness.

 

 

 

 

[CoachX]

2 hours ago, Digityman said:

To your point, I don't want to sell everyone.  It makes no sense BUT they need to start selling high on players to get better returns (picks)

That was a really good post. And I understand your POV. I just think the Flyers have gone down this road too many times, and its never worked. Your model is sound hockey management that seems to only work for other franchises. I think they should keep the positive assets that are KNOWN commodities, and figure out how to build around that

[CoachX]

14 minutes ago, GratefulFlyers said:

@Digityman

 

Good analysis but by focusing strictly on the money you leave out some parts of the equation. Fans never hear much about the intangibles. What kind of teammate is he? Does he fit the team's identity (what it eventually becomes)? Is he a good mentor? etc. etc. These all part of what makes a player valuable to his team. Not necessarily irreplaceable but worth keeping as opposed to gambling you'll land his twin.

 

The other thing you don't allow for is growth, for untapped potential. Neither guy is a finished product. TK is the Flyers version of Brad Marchand. There aren't many players like Marchand and TK is one of them. At 25 his ceiling is nowhere in sight.

 

Provorov...I just like. His best games are a thing of beauty. Good foot speed, reads plays quickly, tough as nails and he can carry the puck. The better the Flyers play the fewer mistakes he makes.

 

If none of the above means anything I'll leave you with this: moving players in the hopes of getting back (or developing) players just like them seems to me taking an unnecessarily long road back to competitiveness.

 

 

 

 

Great Post! If I was smarter I would have posted the same thing

[Digityman]

2 hours ago, GratefulFlyers said:

Good analysis

Thanks.  

 

2 hours ago, GratefulFlyers said:

The other thing you don't allow for is growth, for untapped potential. Neither guy is a finished product. TK is the Flyers version of Brad Marchand. There aren't many players like Marchand and TK is one of them. At 25 his ceiling is nowhere in sight.

 

Neither guy is a finished product, I agree.  BUT I believe neither is going to jump significantly.  Let's say both are a 85 out of 100 (solid B's).  Do you think either jump to 90?  95?  In my opinion, they might creep up to 87-88s but that's about it.   TK is a poor man's Marchand with the possibility of matching Marchand's output in his very best year to come.   That's what they are hoping other GM's think also.

 

2 hours ago, GratefulFlyers said:

If none of the above means anything I'll leave you with this: moving players in the hopes of getting back (or developing) players just like them seems to me taking an unnecessarily long road back to competitiveness.

 

I 100% agree with this.   However, we have slightly varying views: 

 

Your view (based on what I've read)

"Keep the player through their prime even though the team won't be in their prime because they are known commodity and you don't know what you'll get to replace them. "

 

My view

"Attempt to develop player similar to them (and hopefully better) that will hit their prime when the team is hitting their prime"

 

I do also understand that you also need a few 'veteran' players that will help guide younger players.  I'm not sure TK fits that bill.  Provorov, maybe. 

Edited December 9, 2022 by Digityman

[MaineFlyFan]

Pffftttt.......Come on people! Just keep buying tickets/tv packages/jerseys/gritty t-shirts and leave the tough decisions to the professionals!!! 

 

[flyercanuck]

6 hours ago, GratefulFlyers said:

 

I wonder. There's been mixed messaging coming out of the Flyers - Tortorella on one hand Fletcher on the other and Fletcher has been the one losing ground. At least in the media. Whether that means he's actually reconsidering anything - if he even has that capacity - who knows.

 

But at least now there's talk of accountability and sacrifice for the team. It's mostly (but not exclusively) coming from the HC and of course he can only coach what he's given. But I think Tortorella's message to the fans and to his bosses is sinking in: "We're starting over - get used to it."

 

 

 

 

 

I've never been a fan of Tortorella...but I am a fan of what he is saying as coach of the Flyers. But I'm basically just agreeing on something I already knew.

Edited December 9, 2022 by flyercanuck

[flyer4ever]

These conjecture conversations regarding our beloved Flyers are pure fantasy. Until the day comes when they have a 21st century hockey operation with a capable GM it is just all jibber jabber. they obviously have zero clue about asset management and no idea about development, along with a more than obvious deficiency in recognizing and treating core and overall player health. So until they address these issues there is no point in really getting too upset about it. This ain't being a critic Gritty, these are unarguable facts. It has been like this for a decade plus. They are clueless, and there is no end in sight. I was in the building at Maple Leaf Gardens in 1969, Flyers had a rookie in the lineup who dominated Dave Keon that night. It is very sad to me to see what has become of his team, regardless of what his involvement is today. When he arrived back then the team was much as it is today. 6 years later 2nd cup in a row. Its doable, but not with the current GM. 

[SCFlyguy]

On 12/8/2022 at 10:26 AM, Digityman said:

I agree, the time is now to sell Provorov and TK.  Let us not forget that it's okay to develop players and consider them a commodity.  I think sometimes people forget that piece - especially Flyers mgmt.  We've all seen enough of these two to figure out what they are going to be, it's about time we sell high on players that are approaching UFA.  

I would like this post 50 times if I could.  This has been the Flyers problem for years.  There are only two ways to get better: draft and cap space and there is only a limited amount of both.  Turning over your roster for more shots in the draft and not getting locked in to ok players at game changer money is how you maximize both.
 

Look at Konecny’s comparisons on hockeyreference.  He’s a TJ Oshie (maybe) not an Oveckin or Backstrom.  The Flyers shouldn’t treat him as one just cause they don’t have those guys but maybe you get multiple shots at getting one by trading him.

[SCFlyguy]

On 12/6/2022 at 8:40 PM, GrittyForever said:

he isn't a cornerstone piece but he wanted to be in Philly so I think the team will keep him. That's all. 

Ha, your timing is too good.  Prize trade acquisition in the offseason and supposed future of the franchise TDA is a healthy scratch.  Amazing.

 

How is TDA going to punch out Hart when he is a healthy scratch?

[GratefulFlyers]

9 hours ago, Digityman said:

Your view (based on what I've read)

"Keep the player through their prime even though the team won't be in their prime

Haha no this is your view based on your conviction (I’d say speculation) that the Flyers can’t reach their prime in the next 5 years. I’m speculating too but in the other direction. I believe they can get there, and quicker than half a decade, but I’m not convinced they will.
 

That’s why I think this year is so interesting. The Flyers are at a crossroads and it could go either way. Management could choose to follow Tortorella’s lead, building around the players he likes and trusts. Or they may keep pretending they’re on the road to the POs, ending up nowhere and trotting out Fletcher to serve up the crab fries. Or just the crabs, or whatever next bad idea he has.

 

The signs are coming on. I hear they’re even chanting “Fire Fletcher” at home games. Could be the beginning of a new beginning…